Promise of Reason

Strong advantage BJP: 1 (Jaipur)
Steady advantage BJP: 6 (Churu, Jaipur Rural, Bharatpur, Dhaulpur-Karauli, Pali, Rajsamand)
Slight advantage BJP: 5 (Bikaner, Alwar, Bhilwara, Jodhpur, Jhalawar-Karan)
Toss up: 3 (Ajmer, Nagaur, Kota)
Slight advantage Congress: 2 (Ganganagar, Sikar)
Steady advantage Congress: 4 (Barmer, Jalore, Udaipur, Chittaurgarh)
Strong advantage Congress: 3 (Jhunjhunu, Sawai Madhopur-Tonk, Banswara)
Impossible to predict: 1 (Dausa)

Now the seatwise detailed analysis:

Assumptions:
I have worked with the recent assembly elections in mind, apart from the previous three Lok Sabha elections. I will be keeping constituency profiles in view, along with the influence the candidates will be having. Any external factors will also be counted. I will be considering the Congress and the BJP candidates specifically, along with the BSP candidates wherever they will have impact. If there are any independents worthy of mention, they will be accounted for as well.

General Remarks:
A few remarks are in order before we delve into the seats. The general wisdom is that the BJP was done in in the Assembly elections by the rebellion of the Meenas, in particular Kirori Lal Meena and his associates. This is only partly true. While Kirori Lal did damage the BJP in about a dozen constituencies in the north, the BJP actually did reasonably well in the northern Meena belt (Jaipur, Bharatpur, and Dholpur) except for Dausa and Sawai Madhopur – the region where Kirori Lal Meena is strong. What actually cost the BJP dearly is the losses in the tribal areas of southern Rajasthan, where Meenas are present in substantial, but not huge numbers. In particular, the losses in Mewar, Marwar and Hadoti cost the BJP the victory that it might have got otherwise. I am not sure if there is anything the BJP can do to win back the votes in this area at this late point of time, but it is important to realise that the party’s strongholds in southern Rajasthan were badly dented by the Congress.

There is one curious thing. If Kirori Lal Meena rebels and breaks away from the Congress completely, then he may end up taking not only the BJP’s Meena votes, but also the Congress’ Meena votes. The Meenas often vote the Congress.

In any case, it is all but impossible for the BJP to get Meena votes now. Whether Kirori Lal Meena revolts against the Congress or whether he reaches an arrangement will only affect the Congress and only indirectly, the BJP. While there is no denying that he can play a spoiler for the Congress, it is most unlikely he can bring back the Meena votes to the BJP. It might be better for the BJP to woo the Gujjars in this situation. While the Gujjars are not as numerous or powerful as the Meenas, they are in substantial numbers in many parts of the state and can tip the scales in a tight race. The BJP seems to have reached the same conclusion, so they are trying to quietly attract the Gujjars.

The most important task for the BJP is to put its house in order. The BJP is, unfortunately, a seriously divided house. The Vasundhara Raje camp and the Jaswant Singh-Lalit Chaturvedi-Raghuveer Singh Kaushal camps have been at it hammer and tongs. If Shekhawat were to throw in his lot with the rebels, Vasundhara Raje would find herself in deep trouble. Jaswant Singh moving to Darjeeling is a very good thing and one that will, hopefully, allow commonsense to prevail and bring the various camps together. If Shekhawat, Kaushal and Chaturvedi can be persuaded to forego their quarrel with Vasundhara Raje, the BJP will do quite well. If they don’t learn the lesson from the Assembly election – it was the infighting in the BJP that did it in, rather than anything Gehlot and his Congressmen did – then the BJP may be doomed in the Lok Sabha elections.

There is one solace for the BJP. It has always done better in the Lok Sabha elections than in the assembly elections.
1.Ganganagar:
This is a reserved constituency (SC) in the extreme north of Rajasthan. Of the four previous Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has won this seat thrice, and the Congress once. This seat seems to have a habit of voting out the incumbents, and the BJP beat this syndrome last time by a hair’s breadth (the victory margin last time for the BJP was wafer thin.

The just concluded assembly elections were not exactly rosy for the BJP. Of the eight assembly segments in the constituency, the Congress won six, the BJP one and an independent one. The votes for the Congress, however, were not all that greater than the BJP votes. In fact, the total votes for the Congress and the BJP were not greatly different. The Congress has a small lead of around 10,000 votes, but this is not insurmountable. Given that everyone seems to win on hair’s breadth margins in this constituency, the difference might be all that can be expected.

Both the Congress and the BJP have played safe, fielding the same faces they had fielded in the previous Lok Sabha elections, Nihal Chand for the BJP and Bharat Ram Meghwal for the Congress. The BJP MP is facing some anti-incumbency in the area, but not over much. The BSP is not a factor of any significance here. Whether Nihal Chand can weather the anti-incumbency or whether the Congress can just snatch the constituency from him remains to be seen. Whatever happens, the balance is on a knife edge, and the tilt can go either way.

Prediction: Toss up. Either may get it and the victory margin will be small. The Congress may have a very slight advantage, but it is hard to say. Result is impossible to predict.

2.Bikaner:
This constituency in the northwest of Rajasthan, has now been reserved for Scheduled Castes, so both the Congress and the BJP had to go hunting for new candidates. It also ensured that the sitting MP, the yesteryear Bollywood hero, Dharmendra of the BJP, was denied a ticket from the constituency.

Of the previous four elections, the Congress has won this twice and the BJP twice. The surprising thing about this constituency is that the victory margin generally tends to be handsome for whoever wins, unlike Ganganagar. The BSP is not of an real significance here either. Its vote share has never crossed five percent in the last three elections.

The assembly elections tell an interesting story. Of the eight constituencies, the BJP won four, the Congress two, the CPM one and an independent one. Given BJP’s current alliance with the INLD which had put up a good fight in two of the constituencies, the BJP might be able to get them to transfer those votes to it. Even without it, the BJP seems to have a lead of around 20,000 votes in the seat.

Both the Congress and the BJP candidates are newcomers. Arjun Meghwal, the BJP candidate, used to be a tax official, while the Congress has fielded Rewat Ram Panwar. However, this is a constituency where the BJP should be reasonably comfortable (or as comfortable as the narrow victories of Rajasthan allow one to be).

Prediction: Slight advantage BJP. If they play their cards right, they should be able to win here.

3.Churu:
A constituency in the north of Rajasthan, this Jat stronghold will feature an interesting contest this time. Jats are touted as Congress supporters, but this is not really the case. They generally support whoever benefits their community most. And the displeasure of the Jats for Ashok Gehlot is legendary. So, a consolidation of Jat votes in favour of the Congress is unlikely.

In the last two Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has been winning consecutively. The Congress however, won in 1996 and 1998. However, with each election, the BJP has been growing steadily.

In the Assembly elections, the BJP won five, the Congress two, and an independent one. The BSP put up a fairly impressive show in two constituencies, to the detriment of the Congress. By the same token, the independent who won ended up taking the BJP vote in that constituency, so even if the BJP is unable to repeat its Assembly performance, it is likely that the BJP will have an advantage here. The total BJP vote was about 30,000 more than the Congress vote.

The BJP has fielded its popular two time MP Ram Singh Kaswan, a Jat from the constituency. The Congress has not yet fielded anyone from the seat. Given that its list does not feature any Muslim, it is possible they will field one from here. If they do, the BJP’s task will be much easier. But even if they field Narendra Budania, Mr. Kaswan need not be worried too much. He has trounced Jats from the Congress in the past. He has his own base among the Jats, and his support among the other groups is nothing to be sneezed at.

Prediction: Steady Advantage BJP. Unless the Congress does something exceptional, or the BJP something drastically stupid, the BJP will keep this seat.

4.Jhunjhunu:
The home turf of Sheesh Ram Ola. This man has remained a rock for the Congress, unshakeable even when everyone else from the Congress was swept away last time. He was able to win on his own steam even when he was out of the Congress and contesting on the Tiwari Congress ticket. In fact, he was one of the very few who managed to win, despite the breakaway from the Congress.

In the last four Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has not won the seat at all. Sheesh Ram Ola has been winning all the four times, no matter who was fielded as his opponent. In the Assembly elections too, the Congress won fairly handsomely from this constituency. Of the eight segments, the Congress won five, the BSP two, and the BJP one. The Congress vote is well above the BJP vote. It is interesting that the BSP has made such a headway in this area. Nevertheless, it is not going to affect anything much.

The BJP has not yet fielded its candidate from the seat. It is doubtful they have anyone who can win here.

Prediction: Strong advantage Congress. Unless there is a miracle from heaven or the Congress does something extraordinarily stupid, they will win this seat.

5.Sikar:
The heartland of the Jats. This constituency usually features Jat strongmen fighting each other from different parties. This time is no different either. However, the picture has been compounded here with the Meena and the Gujjar vote. While the Meenas have been up in arms against the BJP, with Kirori Lal Meena and Congress likely to take the bulk of their vote, the question remains what the Gujjars will do. The Gujjars are quite numerous in this constituency. There have been suggestions that the Gujjars might still be with the Congress, but given the intensity of animosity between the Gujjars and the Meenas, it is doubtful the two groups can remain on the same side. This may – and is likely to – lead to a consolidation of the Gujjars on the side of the BJP. The BJP has been quietly working on the Gujjars in recent times.

In the last three elections, the BJP has been winning this seat continuously. The last time the Congress won this seat was in 1996. The Assembly elections showed some curious things. Of the eight constituencies, the Congress won five, the CPM two, and the BJP one. The Congress vote was well above the BJP vote in the region.

The party MP, Subhash Meharia, a Jat, is quite popular in his constituency. While there is a bit of anti-incumbency against him, he should be able contend against it fairly effectively. The Congress has not yet named its candidate against him. If it is a Jat, then the Jat votes will be divided, the Meena votes will go to the Congress (or be divided between the Congress and Kirori Lal Meena’s candidate) and the Gujjar votes will likely go to the BJP. The outcome will then depend on the votes of the dalits, the Malis, the Sainis and, of course, the Brahmins and Rajputs. All of them have a decent number in the area.

Prediction: Slight advantage Congress. If the Assembly elections are any pointer to the direction the wind is blowing, the Congress may have a small advantage. It depends on their candidate and how much they can get the OBC and Dalit votes. However, the BJP MP is an old warhorse, and is not easily unseated.

6.Jaipur Rural:
This is a constituency where the Meenas matter very much. On a curious note, the BJP did quite well in the constituency in the Assembly elections. This is a new constituency that has been carved out after delimitation, so there is no precedent in the Lok Sabha.

The Assembly polls tell a strange story. One would have assumed that the BJP would have done badly in the region dominated by the Meenas. Nevertheless, of the eight assembly segments, the BJP won five, the Congress two, and an independent won one. The BJP vote is well above the Congress vote.

Neither the Congress, nor the BJP have announced their candidates yet. The Congress has been waiting for the talks with Mr. Meena to conclude, while the BJP has not announced anything at all about this seat.

Prediction: Steady advantage BJP. On balance, the BJP holds the advantage here. Unless the Congress is very successful in wooing Mr. Meena and getting the Meena vote en masse, the BJP will be better off. Even if the Congress is successful with Mr. Meena, the BJP will still have a very good chance here. The candidate selection will determine the outcome.

7.Jaipur:
The capital of Rajasthan. This is an urban constituency where caste equations don’t count for all that much. It is more about ideas, visions and most of all, ability to capture the imagination of the middle class voters that determines the final result.

The BJP has been winning the Lok Sabha seat since 1991. Giridhari Lal Bhargava had made it his home turf. With his passing, the mantle has been passed to his successors to see that they maintain his record.

In the previous assembly elections, the BJP won five of the eight segments, while the Congress won three. The BJP vote was about 55,000 more than the Congress vote.

The BJP has fielded Ghanshyam Tiwari while the Congress has fielded Mahesh Joshi. Both are Brahmins, but it is not very likely that caste considerations will count for much in an urban setting. Mr. Tiwari has the advantage of coming from a resounding victory in the just concluded assembly polls. He should make the cut without any trouble.

Prediction: Strong advantage BJP. They should win here without too much trouble.

8.Alwar:
An old royal state in the north-east of Rajasthan, this constituency will witness a straight battle between the Congress and the BJP. While the BSP is of some significance here, all the six BSP legislators along with a good part of the state unit have joined the Congress, strengthening the party. While the BSP will still take a bite out of the traditional Congress vote, its power to harm seems diminished.

In the last four Lok Sabha elections, the Congress has won thrice here, while the BJP has won once. However, Alwar has a reputation for narrow victory margins, and this time promises to be no different either.

The Assembly elections present a singular picture. Of the eight assembly segments, the BJP has won four, the Congress three and the SP one. The BSP did come second in one constituencies, and put up an impressive show in two more, so it has a reasonable following. The SP is yet to show its hand too, and its presence too is not negligible. The BJP vote was about 20,000 more than the Congress vote, so the BJP seems to have a marginal advantage here.

The candidates of both the Congress and the BJP have raised eyebrows. Both have replaced all their usual candidates, viz, Jaswant Singh Yadav, and Smt. Mahendra Kumari. Instead, the parties are fighting it out by proxy. The Congresss has fielded Jitender Singh, the son of Mahendra Kumari, while the BJP has fielded Smt. Kiran Yadav, wife of Jaswant Singh Yadav. With both Mahendra Kumari and Jaswant Singh Yadav being perpetual party hoppers, cynical caste considerations may play a vital role in determining the fate of the candidates. There are apparently about 2 lakh Yadavs, who will throw in with Kiran Yadav, while there are about 1.5 lakh Meo Muslims, who will vote the Congress. The Jats, will probably support the BJP, but to balance it, the Meenas will vote the Congress, or if Kirori Lal Meena fields an independent, may support him. This will leave the Dalit, the OBCs and upper caste votes to be determine the fates of the candidates. On balance, the BJP holds a small advantage here.

Prediction: Slight advantage BJP. They need to consolidate their hold here and work on the upper castes and the OBCs, who will determine the fate of the party.

9.Bharatpur:
An old Jat state in the north east of Rajasthan, the profile of the constituency has changed considerably since delimitation. It now includes parts of the old Bayana constituency, a stronghold of the BJP, which its MP, Ganga Ram Koli nursed it carefully. Further changing the profile drastically, the constituency is now reserved for Scheduled Castes, removing all the royals from the fray. The poll scene will look very different this time. To add to the Congress’ woes, the BSP, which has a decent presence in the area, will eat into the Congress votebank.

Of the previous four Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had won here thrice and the Congress once. In the Bayana seat, however, the BJP has been winning continuously from 1989.

Of the Assembly segments, the BJP has seven of the eight segments, and the Congress has one. The BJP vote is comfortably above the Congress vote.

The BJP has nominated a block level worker, Khemchand Koli, while the Congress has fielded Mr. Ratan Singh. Both are newcomers to the Lok Sabha scene, but the BJP is well organised here and its organisation may prove decisive.

Prediction: Steady advantage BJP. They should win here, if they don’t do anything stupid.

10.Karauli-Dhaulpur:
This is a new seat that has been carved out in the eastern fringe of Rajasthan. It includes parts of the erstwhile Bayana constituency, a traditional BJP stronghold. This is also a reserved constituency for the Scheduled Castes.

Given its newness, it does not have a history in Lok Sabha.

In the assembly elections, of the eight segments, the BJP won four, the BSP two, the Congress one and and independent (Kirori Lal Meena) one. The BJP vote is about 20,000 more than the Congress vote.

Had Mr. Meena and the Congress reached an agreement, the BJP would have been in serious trouble. As that contingency looks increasingly remote, the Congress will have a tough time, what with the considerable presence of the BSP in the area, which won two segments, and was runner up in another. As it is, the BJP has a much easier time.

The BJP has fielded Dr. Manoj Rajoriya while the Congress has not announced its candidate yet. Nevertheless, unless the candidate makes a large difference for the Congress, it is going to find winning here an uphill task.

Prediction: Steady advantage BJP. Unless the Congress candidate is able to pull off a major coup of sorts, this seat will probably go to the BJP.

11.Dausa:
The heart of the Meena-land. The battlefield between the Meenas and the Gujjars. This was a constituency originally held by Rajesh (and later, his son, Sachin) pilot. This is also the area where Kirori Lal Meena holds a good deal of influence, and was able to secure the victory of his unlettered wife, Golma. This is now a constituency reserved for the Scheduled Tribes.

There are three communities in this region who matter much here – the Gujjars, the Meenas and the Brahmins. Given that both Brahmins and the Gujjars cannot contest for the elections this time, it will be interesting to watch who they vote for. Can the Gujjars overcome their resentment for Meenas and vote a Meena here? How much of the Meena vote will Kirori Lal be able to garner here? And if he walks away with the Meena vote, what will be the fate of the others?

In the previous elections, this constituency was the home turf of Rajesh Pilot. He (and later his son, Sachin) have been winning here continuously since 1991.

The assembly elections are – well – really astonishing. They demonstrate the degree of hold Kirori Lal holds over the Meenas of the area. In the eight assembly segments, four were won by independents (Kirori Lal’s associates), two by the BJP, and one apiece by the Congress and the BSP. Both the Congress and the BJP were rendered irrelevant in many segments with both the Gujjars and the Meenas deserting both parties.

Neither party has announced its candidate here. They all seem to have gone into a tizzy. If Kirori Lal contests here as an independent, he may be able to single handedly win the seat. However, the entry of Qamar Rabbani Chechi, a Kashmiri Gujjar, is sending shock waves into both the parties, particularly the Congress as he threatens to walk away with both the Gujjar and the Muslim vote. If that happens and Kirori Lal takes the Meena vote, both parties will be rendered irrelevant – something unique in the history of Rajasthan.

Prediction: Impossible to predict anything as yet. But it is safe to say that neither party is in good shape at the moment. If Kirori Lal contests, it will be interesting to watch.

12.Tonk-Sawai Madhopur:
This constituency was formed by merging large areas of the former Sawai-Madhopur and Tonk constituencies. As such, one may expect a divided history for it. This is another constituency where the Meena factor looms large, and the BJP may pay dearly for its policies. Not that the Congress is any too comfortable either, what with Kirori Lal’s revolt.

In the previous Lok Sabha elections, the Congress had won Sawai Madhopur three times in the past four elections, while the BJP had won the Tonk Lok Sabha seat three of the last four times. The victory margins tend to be rather large here.

In the just concluded assembly elections, the BJP’s performance was absolutely horrid. It could not win a single seat and was pushed to third spot in many places by the revolt of the Meenas against the party. Of the eight assembly segments, the Congress won six, independents one, and the BSP one. The BSP has some presence, but not much.

The candidates have not been announced yet, but the Congress candidate is likely to be Namo Narayan Meena, another strong Meena leader. Even if Kirori Lal fields Meena candidates against Namo Narayan, they may not be able to have much impact. Namo Narayan is himself a strong Meena leader and Meenas are not likely to desert him. The BJP can try consolidating the non-Meena vote, but even then, it is going to be a tough time for the party. The Congress has its own base among the non-Meenas and somehow turning everyone not a Meena into a BJP supporter is not easy.

Prediction: Strong advantage Congress. Unless they do something idiotic, they will win this seat.

13.Ajmer:
An old constituency that has been changed around quite a bit. I am not sure how many of the old election results still apply to this constituency. The Sindhis and the Gujjars are the two largest communities in the area.

The old Ajmer constituency had been a traditional BJP stronghold, with the BJP winning three of the last four times. Rasa Singh Rawat had nurtured his constituency very well, and his help will be of use to the BJP. The changing profile, however, has meant that Mr. Rawat has been shifted away.

In the just concluded assembly elections, the Congress won five of the eight segments, while the BJP won two, and an independent one. However, the victory margins were painfully narrow in many constituencies. The total Congress vote is about 20,000 more than the BJP vote, but the independents are unlikely to do as well in the Lok Sabha elections, and this constituency is out of Kirori Lal’s sphere of influence.

The Congress has fielded Sachin Pilot from this constituency, against the BJP Mahila Morcha chief, Kiran Maheshwari. Both of the candidates are outsiders. The BJP candidate had won from Rajsamand, while the Congress candidate had won from Dausa. The Sindhis will probably vote for the BJP while the Gujjars will probably do the same for the Congress. The other groups will, therefore, determine the outcome of the tussle. The election will also determine whether Rajesh Pilot’s son can hold his own outside his constituency. By the same token, it will determine whether Kiran Maheshwari can repeat her magic outside her home districts.

Prediction: Toss up. Impossible to predict. This will be a very close battle. Neither side holds any real advantage.

14.Nagaur:
Another pocket borough of the Jats, this constituency has thrown up Jat heavyweights like the late Nathuram Mirdha. His legacy still continues, with the Jats dominating this constituency.

Nagaur was a Congress stronghold of sorts until 1989. The Congress candidates had never been defeated from here until 1989, when it was defeated by the JD. Even after that, it has mostly returned Congress candidates. The BJP has won here only in 2004. All other elections have been won by the Congress. In the last two elections the BSP had put up an impressive show winning 31.1% and 17.5% of the vote, and in 1999 actually being the runner up.

What is surprising, given the impressive show in the Lok Sabha by the BSP, is the comprehensive defeat of the BSP in the just concluded Assembly elections. The BSP has been wiped out, coming only a distant second in one constituency. If the present state of affairs endures (and I see no reason why it would not), then the constituency will feature a direct fight between the Congress and the BJP. In the assembly elections, the Congress had won four of the eight segments, the BJP three and an independent in one. The BJP vote and the Congress vote are almost at par, and neither side seems to hold any real advantage.

The BJP has fielded Smt. Bindu Choudhary against Smt. Jyothi Mirdha of the Congress. Both of them are Jats, both come from illustrious backgrounds and both have their votebanks. The Congress nominee is the grand daughter of the legendary Nathuram Mirdha while the BJP nominee is the daughter of two time MP, Ram Raghunath. If the Jat votes get divided, then the others will determine the outcome. That would depend on party management of the polls.

Prediction: Toss up. Neither side holds any real advantages over the other. Also, it remains to be seen if the BSP can make a come back and eat into the votebank of either party.

15.Pali:
A BJP stronghold in Marwar, this constituency will feature an interesting battle this time. Sirvis and Jains are the main groups of the area, and both of them have their strong points. This constituency will have its traditional straight battle between the Congress and the BJP.

The previous Lok Sabha elections have almost always returned illustrious Jains from the constituency, in particular from the BJP. Guman Mal Lodha represented the constituency for three terms, and then made way for Pushp Jain, another popular candidate from the area. The Congress has won here only once in the last twenty years, in 1998 when a pro-Congress wave swept the state.

The assembly elections portray pretty much what might be expected. Of the eight assembly segments, the BJP won six, and the Congress two. The BJP vote is about 30,000 more than the Congress vote.

The BJP has fielded its incumbent and popular MP, Pushp Jain, while the Congress has thrown Badri Ram Jakhar into the fray. Given the BJP MP’s popularity and non-controversial nature, it is doubtful if anything can be done by the Congress to dislodge him. Badri Ram Jakhar had contested from Jodhpur last time and had lost.

Prediction: Steady advantage BJP. If they manage their campaign well, they will win from the constituency.

16.Jodhpur:
A high profile contest if ever there was one. The stakes for the Congress are particularly high in this constituency, since the chief minister and the candidate have both staked their pride on the outcome. On the other hand, the Congress candidate’s anti-Hindu tirades have enthused the BJP cadre – particularly the Hindutva outfits – as well, and they will be working overtime to defeat her. A high tension contest, all in all.

This constituency does not really favour any party. The Congress (Ashok Gehlot himself) had won here in 1996 and 1998, but the seat has been represented since then by Jaswant Singh Bishnoi, who was a minister in the Shekhawat cabinet.

The assembly elections were a mixed affair, with both the Congress and the BJP winning four seats each in the region, and the votes were also nearly on par with each other. No real advantages for anyone there.

The Congress has fielded the sister of the former ruler Gaj Singh, Chandresh Kumari. Ashok Gehlot’s own segment, Sardarpura, falls in the area. He will be campaigning hard for the party nominee, since his pride is at stake. The theory is that she will be more acceptable to the Rajputs, who number about 2 lakh in the constituency. However, this is unlikely to happen en masse. The BJP generally garners the Rajput vote. Besides, the Congress candidate has made several vitriolic attacks against the Hindutva groups, which has infuriated them. They will work overtime to ensure her defeat. Further, the Congress candidate has not been in Jodhpur for a very long time, and she will have to work hard to get rid of the `outsider’ tag.

The BJP candidate, on the other hand, is non-controversial and has no opponents inside the party. He can count completely on the votes of the Bishnoi community, which numbers about 1.5 lakh, along with a good part of the Rajput vote, even if it gets split to an extent because of Chandresh Kumari. The Patels will vote for the BJP, which leaves the Jats as a group that has yet to show its hand. Finally, if anyone can rally the disparate groups inside the BJP to his side, it is Jaswant Singh Bishnoi. The battle will be close, but the BJP nominee still holds a small advantage.

Prediction: I will stick my neck out here, and say that the BJP has a small advantage which they can convert to a victory.

17.Barmer:
This expansive constituency spread over the districts of Jaisalmer and Barmer will feature a tense battle. This has been a traditional Congress stronghold, but it was snatched away by the BJP in 2004. The constituency will feature a straight battle between the Congress and the BJP.

Of the previous four Lok Sabha elections, the Congress had won thrice, while the BJP won in 2004. This was really a coup for the BJP when it won.

The assembly elections portray a dismal picture for the BJP. The Congress won six of the eight segments and the BJP two. The Congress vote is more than 1 lakh more than the BJP vote.

The BJP has fielded Manvendra Singh, the sitting MP and the son of senior leader, Jaswant Singh against Harish Choudhary. Given the assembly results, the BJP candidate maybe facing a tough time. Unless his charisma can counteract a lakh votes and turn them around, he may find the going hard.

Prediction: Steady advantage Congress. Unless Manvendra Singh does something special, the seat is going to return to the Congress.

18.Jalore:
Another traditional Congress stronghold in Marwar. This was another coup pulled off by the BJP which won it last time.

Of the four previous Lok Sabha elections, the Congress has won all except in 2004. The delimitation has not changed the boundaries of the constituency much.

In the assembly elections, of the eight segments, four were won by the Congress, three by the BJP and one by an independent. The Congress vote was about 30,000 more than the BJP vote.

The BJP has not renominated the sitting MP, Susheela, wife of Bangaru Laxman and has instead fielded Devji Choudhary. The Congress has thrown Sandhya Choudhary into the battle. The presence of new faces might, to some extent, alleviate the anti-incumbency against the BJP MP. Nevertheless, the BJP is going to find the battle none too easy.

Prediction: Steady advantage Congress. Unless the BJP can do something special, the Congress will take it back.

19.Udaipur:
A constituency that has been significantly altered post-delimitation, it is now a mixture of the old Udaipur and Salumber, and is now reserved for Scheduled Tribes. The old Udapiur had a habit of changing hands between the Congress and the BJP, while Salumber was a Congress stronghold which the BJP snatched away in 2004. Its new status as a Scheduled Tribe constituency has meant that both the Congress and the BJP candidates have had to migrate away.

The assembly elections present a rather bleak scenario for the BJP. Of the eight segments, the BJP has two while the Congress has six. The Congress vote is about 60,000 more than the BJP vote.

The sitting BJP MP from Salumber, Mahaveer Bhagora has been allotted the seat. The Congress has fielded Raghuveer Singh Meena, sitting MLA from Salumber against him. The strong tribal component may see the Congress candidate through. Mr. Bhagora’s performance is not bad, but whether he can stand against Mr. Meena remains to be seen.

Prediction: Steady Advantage Congress. The BJP may find this one tough to hold on to.

20.Banswara:
Another Congress stronghold in Mewar. This seat was seized in 2004 by the BJP when things were going its way. This will be tough for the BJP to keep now, though.

In the previous four Lok Sabha elections, it was only in 2004 that the BJP actually managed to snatch it from the Congress. All other times, the Congress has won here and usually with very convincing margins.

Of the eight assembly segments, the Congress holds six, the JD(U) one and and independent one. The BJP’s performance in the recent assembly elections were absolutely dismal. The Congress vote is about one and a half lakh more than the BJP-JD(U) vote.

The BJP has denied a ticket to the sitting MP, Dhan Singh Rawat, and has fielded Mr. Hakru Malda. It will take a miracle for him to overcome the anti-incumbency generated by his predecessor. Mr. Rawat contested the just concluded assembly elections and lost by about 25000 votes in his home constituency. The Congress has fielded Mr. Tarachand Bhagora, who should win this comfortably.

Prediction: Strong advantage Congress. The BJP will need a miracle to win this one.

21.Chittaurgarh:
Probably the most prestigious constituency in Mewar, this region was a traditional BJP stronghold and was represented for a long time by Jaswant Singh. After he quitted this area, it has been represented by Shrichand Kriplani. Only in 1998, when a Congress wave overspread the state did it manage to snatch the seat.

The assembly elections were a complete disaster for the BJP. Of the eight assembly constituencies, seven were won by the Congress and one by the BJP. In fact, the BJP suffered a near whitewash here. The Congress vote is about 75,000 more than the BJP vote.

The sitting MP, Shrichand Kriplani has been renominated by the BJP, but he is facing some serious anti-incumbency. He contested the recent assembly elections and was convincingly routed. He has his work cut out for him, if he wishes to avoid a similar fate in the coming Lok Sabha elections. To add to his woes, the Congress has fielded Girija Vyas from the constituency. The high profile of Girija Vyas may counteract the fact that she is an outsider. She can count on the opium lobby (Chittaur is one of the few districts where opium can be legally grown in India) for support, and she usually won from neighbouring Udaipur. She holds all the advantages here.

Prediction: Steady advantage Congress. The BJP will need to work hard to win here.

22.Rajsamand:
Formed by combining pieces of Ajmer and Udaipur, this seat has no past and no baggage. Northern Udaipur and Southern Ajmer (former Lok Sabha areas) were combined here to create the seat.

Of the eight assembly segments here, the BJP holds six, the Congress one and an independent one. The BJP vote is about 65,000 more than the Congress vote.

The BJP has fielded popular MP Rasa Singh Rawat from the constituency. He used to represent Ajmer, but after delimitation, his core areas were moved to Rajsamand. The Congress has made his life easier by fielding Gopal Singh Idwa, instead of Girija Vyas as it was once rumoured. Mr. Rawat should be breathing easy now and should have a simpler task securing a victory for himself.

Prediction: Steady advantage BJP. This is probably the safest seat for the BJP, alongside Jaipur. The BJP should win here, barring unforeseen occurrances.

23.Bhilwara:
A textile town in Mewar, this constituency has, in recent times, turned into a BJP stronghold. Particularly after the death of Shiv Charan Mathur, the BJP has consolidated its hold over the constituency. However, its boundaries have changed quite a bit post delimitation, so the history may not hold absolutely true now.

Of the recent four Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has won thrice, with the Congress winning only in 1998.

The recent assembly elections were a close affair and a mixed bag for the BJP, since both the Congress and the BJP won four seats apiece of the eight segments. The BJP vote as about 7,000 more than the Congress vote, so one may say that the votes are almost at par. The victory margins of almost all candidates were very narrow.

The BJP has fielded its popular two time sitting MP, Mr. Vijayender Pal Singh against the Congress heavyweight, C. P. Joshi. While Mr. Singh is not really facing any serious discontent inside the party or serious anti-incumbency, the fight against a person of Mr. Joshi’s standing is not something to be taken lightly. However, the aura of invincibility around Mr. Joshi has thinned since his defeat in the recent assembly elections. Further adding to his woes, he is not seen as a local, which might be a serious detriment to him. Much will depend on the ability of Mr. Singh to enthuse the various Sangh cadres for the upcoming elections. However, his non-controversial nature and his popularity may just see him sail safely to victory.

Prediction: Slight advantage BJP. They need to work very carefully not to fritter it away and make sure that they work unitedly. If they do it, there is no reason why Mr. Singh should not get a third term.

24.Kota:
The heart of Hadoti. The textile capital of the south. This seat has been famous for electing Congress opponents since the independence. It is one of the very few constituencies that the Congress has rarely won. It was once represented by the famed Dau Dayal Joshi, one of the stalwarts of the Jan Sangh and later the BJP.

Given its history, the Lok Sabha results in recent times are what one would expect. It has elected the BJP in three of the four previous elections. The only time the Congress won was in 1998, when Ram Narayan Meena defeated Raghuveer Singh Kaushal.

Once more, the assembly elections were a close and mixed affair. Both parties have their strongholds and strengths. Both parties won four assembly segments apiece. The BJP and the Congress votes were almost at par, with the BJP having about 4,000 votes more. However, Kota has always had a tradition of voting in non-Congress parties at the centre.

The BJP has fielded Shyam Sundar Sharma in place of the sitting MP, Raghuveer Singh Kaushal. The Congress has not announced its candidate yet. The major worry for the BJP is not the Congress, but internecine warfare. The BJP’s denial of ticket to a political heavyweight like Mr. Kaushal may have unpleasant ramifications for the party. If they can convince Mr. Kaushal’s supporters to work for the party, they will win here. If not, they may fritter away a seat that they could win.

Prediction: Toss up. Impossible to say anything yet.

25.Jhalawar-Baran:
The seat of the former chief minister Vasundhara Raje Scindia. Another seat in the Hadoti region which has been a traditional BJP stronghold. Or it has been so since Vasundhara Raje started contesting from the seat. She has represented this seat continuously since 1989. Last time, her son Dushyant Singh won from the seat held by his mother since a very long time.

The assembly elections were a shocker for the BJP and perhaps the hardest blow to Vasundhara Raje. Of the eight segments, the BJP won only two seats, while the Congress won six. The Congress vote is about 45,000 more than the BJP vote in the constituency.

The BJP has renominated Mr. Dushyant Singh, while the Congress has fielded Ms. Urmila Jain.

There is no denying that the BJP fortunes have taken a battering in the region, and much of it is due to infighting. In fact, a heavyweight like Raghuveer Singh Kaushal contested from an assembly segment in the region and lost dismally. His loss has been attributed to sabotage from within the party. However, Vasundhara Raje has her own vote and has always been winning convincingly, even when the BJP fortunes were down. The seriousness with which she has taken the challenge can be gauged from the fact that she is personally camped in Jhalawar and is campaigning vigorously for her son.

Yet the greatest threat for the BJP here, as in Kota, is not the Congress. It is internal sabotage. If Mr. Dushyant Singh’s prospects are damaged by those who suffered in the recent assembly elections, he may suffer a defeat. Nevertheless, Vasundhara Raje’s popularity in her own constituency cannot be denied and she may help her son win, in despite of opposition, both within and without the party.

Prediction: Marginal advantage BJP. But really, they need to get their own machinery up and running or they will be out of the race.

Final tally:
Strong advantage BJP: 1 (Jaipur)
Steady advantage BJP: 6 (Churu, Jaipur Rural, Bharatpur, Dhaulpur-Karauli, Pali, Rajsamand)
Slight advantage BJP: 5 (Bikaner, Alwar, Bhilwara, Jodhpur, Jhalawar-Karan)
Toss up: 3 (Ajmer, Nagaur, Kota)
Slight advantage Congress: 2 (Ganganagar, Sikar)
Steady advantage Congress: 4 (Barmer, Jalore, Udaipur, Chittaurgarh)
Strong advantage Congress: 3 (Jhunjhunu, Sawai Madhopur-Tonk, Banswara)
Impossible to predict: 1 (Dausa)

Likely Tally – BJP 14, Cong 11.