Promise of Reason

Hello friends,

It is good to see community of Promise of Reason developing. Our regular reader and commentator Arun Narendhranath has sent a detailed seatwise analysis of upcoming election possibilities for Maharashtra. It is going to be a multicornered fight in Maharashtra, so this excel sheet provides great insight into Maharashtra’s political situation. Though, as all of us know that he is a declared BJP supporter. Read the rest of this entry »

Karnataka is a state, which is very crucial for BJP. It is a new found grund for party and broken alliance of congress and JDS is helping the prospects of BJP. Though congress is still a big force in state, but in triangular fight vote difference of 2-3% is more than sufficient to make it a clean sweep. Here is a detailed analysis by Shathesh. It shows that many seats are still uncertain, and nobody can predict the mind of voters exactly but Karnataka has almost decided its mind to go with Mr. Advani

BJP    18-23
Congress    2 – 7
JDS    2 – 4

see the detailed seatwise analysis here http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pRxI8WEKfGhwFXjiopNmgaA Read the rest of this entry »

There are three principal formations in the fray – the NDA, the Congress and the AUDF. How the AUDF will react will determine the fate of the other two, as far as I can see.

1.Karimganj
Spread across the districts of Hailakandi and Karimganj in the Barak valley, this is a seat where Muslims are a decisive factor one way or the other (both districts have Muslim populations in the late 40s or early 50 percent). This constituency usually features a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress. The AGP has a reasonable, but not a great presence in region – it has never won the seat in the three elections, nor has it come second in any of the previous three elections, and nor does it control any of the assembly segments that fall in the area. Read the rest of this entry »

Strong advantage BJP: 1 (Jaipur)
Steady advantage BJP: 6 (Churu, Jaipur Rural, Bharatpur, Dhaulpur-Karauli, Pali, Rajsamand)
Slight advantage BJP: 5 (Bikaner, Alwar, Bhilwara, Jodhpur, Jhalawar-Karan)
Toss up: 3 (Ajmer, Nagaur, Kota)
Slight advantage Congress: 2 (Ganganagar, Sikar)
Steady advantage Congress: 4 (Barmer, Jalore, Udaipur, Chittaurgarh)
Strong advantage Congress: 3 (Jhunjhunu, Sawai Madhopur-Tonk, Banswara)
Impossible to predict: 1 (Dausa)

Now the seatwise detailed analysis: Read the rest of this entry »

As all of us know UP is the largest state in terms of no. of Lok sabha seats with 80 odd LS seats. The Lok Sabha (LS) elections in UP will be held in all five phases, in each phase approx. 16 seats will be voting, which is in the range of total no. of seats in moderate size states like Orissa (21), Kerala (20), Assam (14), Jharkhand (14), Punjab (13)= Total 82. So, in this way each phase of UP is equivalent to one of these states and total UP is equal to sum total of all these states approx. Read the rest of this entry »

Now coming to the structured analysis:
I will start from Western UP – Rohilkhand- Central Terai region covering Saharanpur, Meerut, Moradabad, Bareilly, Aligarh & Agra divisions. This region covers LS 32 seats. Out of this 32 seats, 5 LS seats are SC reserved: Nagina, Bulandshahr, Hathras, Agra, Shahjahanpur. In the remaining 27 seats, in 60% of them i.e. 16 seats there is atleast one Muslim candidate from SP, BSP or Congress+. In at least 6 seats, there are two Muslim candidates. Even the Muslim candidates from Congress are strong in this region to cut into Muslim votes. It is just a pity to do analysis based on total caste considerations, but Uttar Pradesh is like that only. Read the rest of this entry »