Promise of Reason

Image courtsey to Gaurav. Read Pre-poll predictions by Promise of Reason (NDA212, UPA175) and statewise analysis by Promise of Reason readers

This is my prediction about how things are going to turn out in west bengal:

1. Coochbehar: Toss up ( Trinamool- AIFB)
2. Alipurduar: RSP
3. Jalpaiguri: CPI(M)
4. Darjelling: BJP
5. Raiganj: INC
6. Balurghat: Toss up
7. Maldaha Uttar: INC
8. Maldaha Dakshin: INC
9. Jangipur: INC
10. Baharampur: INC Read the rest of this entry »

Based on feedback received from the ground in some states as well as newspaper, TV reports, web blogs and discussions during the 3 phases of “India Votes 2009”, my state wise estimate is given below. I would request all readers to give your valuable inputs also.

Phases I-II were certainly advantageous to NDA. There were some setbacks to the alliance during Phase-III in the states of Karnataka and Gujarat. Overall the 3 phases has put NDA ahead.

But the alliance has little to consolidate upon in the subsequent 2 phases, which may be limited to small gains in Himachal, Western UP, Haryana, and Delhi. It should now focus on increasing the losses of UPA by either cutting down UPA votes, strategically transferring its votes to non UPA parties especially in TN and WB and finally restricting its losses in Rajasthan and Punjab. In fact if BJP helps Left restrict its losses in WB and Kerela, it would be an advantage to NDA as it would directly affect UPA numbers. Read the rest of this entry »

Dear friends, These are my Predictions for TN. However, I have to Admit, it’s A Rough one going by The Trends and Past Record(Including Delimitation factor takien into consideration).

In TamilNadu, The Key Players this Election would be : AIADMK Combine which includes PMK,MDMK,CPI,CPI(M), DMK-Congress-VCK Combine.
A Lot of Hype surrounding Captain Vijaykanth’s DMDK. However, Poll Observers and Analysts feel that being Directionless, DMDK has lost sheen.Going for The Parliamentary Elections alone, He has refused to Join The Open Invitation of State BJP Chief, Ila Ganesan and instead was seen hobnobbing with TNCC President giving clear indications that He would support upa post polls.Since Tamils are Extremely Angry over congressand would Teach A Lesson to anyone hobnobbing with them in This election, aspersions are being cast on whether he can retain the 8.3% vote he earned in 2006!!!!!
BJP Too has Formed Primarily with Sarathkumar’s Nadar outfit and Karthik’s Thevar outfit. However, As Karthik’s outfit is contesting on BJP’s Symbol, Technically, The Alliance is Primarily between BJP And AISMK of Sarath Kumar. Read the rest of this entry »

I am the Sales head of my company, in charge of Eastern, Central and Western India. My areas include Eastern & Central UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam/NE, West Bengal, Orissa, MP, Chattisgarh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. My subordinates and me travel to length and breadth of these states, including rural and semi urban areas and meet a lot of people (panchayat leaders, local groups etc). For the past 4-5 months; politics / lok sabha elections invariably come up during our discussions with them. Based on these feedbacks I am putting up my estimates for the elections in these states Read the rest of this entry »

Now coming to the structured analysis:
I will start from Western UP – Rohilkhand- Central Terai region covering Saharanpur, Meerut, Moradabad, Bareilly, Aligarh & Agra divisions. This region covers LS 32 seats. Out of this 32 seats, 5 LS seats are SC reserved: Nagina, Bulandshahr, Hathras, Agra, Shahjahanpur. In the remaining 27 seats, in 60% of them i.e. 16 seats there is atleast one Muslim candidate from SP, BSP or Congress+. In at least 6 seats, there are two Muslim candidates. Even the Muslim candidates from Congress are strong in this region to cut into Muslim votes. It is just a pity to do analysis based on total caste considerations, but Uttar Pradesh is like that only. Read the rest of this entry »

As all of us know UP is the largest state in terms of no. of Lok sabha seats with 80 odd LS seats. The Lok Sabha (LS) elections in UP will be held in all five phases, in each phase approx. 16 seats will be voting, which is in the range of total no. of seats in moderate size states like Orissa (21), Kerala (20), Assam (14), Jharkhand (14), Punjab (13)= Total 82. So, in this way each phase of UP is equivalent to one of these states and total UP is equal to sum total of all these states approx. Read the rest of this entry »