by Chakresh Mishra
Apr 30, 2009Tamilnadu seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
- Maharashtra seatwise prepoll prediction by Arun Narendhranath
- Karnataka seatwise prepoll prediction by Shanthesh
- Andhra Pradesh & Telangana seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
- Assam seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros
- Rajasthan seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros
- Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 1
- Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 2
- 9 northern states prepoll prediction by raja
- Tamilnadu seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
- Pre-poll prediction after phase 3 by Shiladitya Bose
- West Bengal seatwise prepoll prediction by Sameer
Dear friends, These are my Predictions for TN. However, I have to Admit, it’s A Rough one going by The Trends and Past Record(Including Delimitation factor takien into consideration).
In TamilNadu, The Key Players this Election would be : AIADMK Combine which includes PMK,MDMK,CPI,CPI(M), DMK-Congress-VCK Combine.
A Lot of Hype surrounding Captain Vijaykanth’s DMDK. However, Poll Observers and Analysts feel that being Directionless, DMDK has lost sheen.Going for The Parliamentary Elections alone, He has refused to Join The Open Invitation of State BJP Chief, Ila Ganesan and instead was seen hobnobbing with TNCC President giving clear indications that He would support upa post polls.Since Tamils are Extremely Angry over congressand would Teach A Lesson to anyone hobnobbing with them in This election, aspersions are being cast on whether he can retain the 8.3% vote he earned in 2006!!!!!
BJP Too has Formed Primarily with Sarathkumar’s Nadar outfit and Karthik’s Thevar outfit. However, As Karthik’s outfit is contesting on BJP’s Symbol, Technically, The Alliance is Primarily between BJP And AISMK of Sarath Kumar.
All Reserved Seats in TN are for SCs Only. There are NO ST Reserved Seats in TN.
1. Tiruvallur(Reserved) —- This Constituency is by And Large the older Sriperambudur Constituency(pre-delimitation). The SC Reserved Assembly Segments are now part of this newly carved constituency. This constituency largely consists of slum dwellers and a lot of them are Evangelized. one can see more churches then Temples in this part of TamilNadu. Hence, can be presumed as A DMK Bastion. Most likely, DMK would Win This Seat. Remember, Tirumavalavan, VCK President too is a dalit christian and he is with DMK Front. Therefore inaction of upa in protecting SL Tamils and continuance of DMK in upa may NOT be an issue here. Even Frequent powercuts too may not divert the evangelized slums in voting for DMK as various christian communities have already pledged their support to dmk led front in TN.
Bottomline : dmk sitting pretty
2.Chennai North —– This constituency has NOT Changed much post delimitation and it is here that SL Tamil issue and Eelam Struggle are A Hot Potato. The Lawers strike and The Government action against lawyers in addition to frequent powercuts is very much an Issue here and The Fight is Primarily between DMK and CPI which was alloted this constituency as part of The Alliance(Infact, CPI Got A Better Deal as far as choice of constituencies is concerned over CPI-M in The AIADMK Front).
Bottomline : Cakewalk for CPI
3. Chennai South —- This is An Elite Constituency. The Per Capita Income of People is Higher in This Constituency in The Whole of TN and is also higher than The National Average. A Educational Hub, IIT, Anna University,Gurunanak Arts College and several other Engineering Colleges, MGR Medical University are all Located in This Constituency. Further, This Constituency has 22% Brahmin Voters. Very High stakes for BJP. BJP has done well by fielding A Brahmin Candidate here, Ila Ganesan, TN BJP Chief. AIADMK and DMK have fielded New faces. DMK Leader in Lok Sabha, union Minister T R Baalu was so sure of getting Defeated from here that he shifted to the now dereserved neighbouring constituency of sriperumbadur. The Anti Ram Barbs of karunanidhi, upa’s pampering of minorities, vote bank politics, Anti Hindu activities of dmk-upa govt.,Terrorism and Governance are An Issue here.
With Cho and Dr. Subramanian Swamy being in BJP(Who constantly Remind of Ram Sethu Issue) and AIADMK Fielding a Non Brahmin, BJP should Make it to Parliament from This Constituency.
Bottomline : BJP Comfortably Ahead.
4. Chennai – Central —- A DMK Bastion. With Former Union Minister, Dayanidhi Maran back into DMK Fold and The Sun Network and Karunanidhi’s families mending fences, DMK hould Win this seat quite Comfortably though, The SL Tamil Issue may bring down the margin of victory.
Bottomline : Cakewalk for DMK
5. Srierumbudur —– Rajiv who was killed here is long forgotten. AIADMK has alloted this seat to Ally PMK. DMK has Fielded T R Baalu. Some of The Former South Chennai Assembly segments(particularly DMK Strongholds like Tambaram, a highly christian dominated constituency) have been added into the new Sriperumbadur constituency, hence, should be an easy victory.
Bottomline : DMK Comfortably Ahead.
6. Kancheepuram(Reserved) —- Famous for Kanchi Mutt and Silk Sarees(Highly Popular Wedding Silks) and The Town of Temples. This By Far The Old Chengalpattu Constituency(Pre Delimitation). Likely to be An Easy Seat for AIADMK. DMDK may however play spoilsport, but, stil AIADMK Ahead here in This Constituency.
Bottomline : AIADMK Sitting Pretty
7. Arrakonam —- This seat has been Allotted to PMK in The AIADMK Front and will take over DMK . PMK is certain to retain this seat.
Bottomline : An Interesting Battle on Cards. Toss up, However,PMK has an Edge.
8. Vellore : A Muslim Dominated Constituency. IUML(On DMK Symbol) has Edge here as The Minorities have Pledged their support to dmk-congress since both ar eAnti Hindu and pro minority
Bottomline : Advantage DMK(As IUML Candidate would Technically be DMK Candidate on Electoral Rolls)
9. Krishnagiri —- Issues like Hokkanegal Project and Cauvery Waters Sharing are Hot topics in This Constituency which shares it’s Border with Karnataka. Though BJP has put up A Candidate here, BJP can at the most garner only A Few Votes about 7-9 % a Maximum. Actually, Karnataka being A BJP State, may lower BJP Vote % here than that Anticipated. Fight likely to be between Archrivals DMK and AIADMK. This Region has Traditionally been An AIADMK Bastion ever since AIADMK was Formed.congress used to Win this seat in Alliance with AIADMK. In Assembly Elections, AIADMK always had edge here and won comfortably. for sure, AIADMK Will Win from here!!! However, ADMK Cant be overconfident as DMDK Might uspet the calculations. I Addition, KonguNadu Makkal Peravai, A PMK Like Caste based outfit of Gounders too may play spoilsport.
FootNote : A Little about The Caste Relations. Gounders(KMP) and Vanniayars(PMK) are Anti to each other and share an Acrimonious Relationship. Both have considerabale Influence in this region of Northen TN. Gounders have ben Traditionally with AIADMK but, With Emergence of KMP and PMK being part of AIADMK Front may anger Gounders and They might vote for their own outfit hence spoiling the Chances of ADMK.
Bottomline : May Spring A Surprise, but, Clearly An AIADMK Victory is Anticipated.
PS : BJP and KMP Would Essentially eat into ADMK’s votebase and NOT DMK’s. Hence, I said, can Spring A Surprise. The Factor that might work for AIADMK is that DMDK is eating into congress votebase!!!!!!
10. Dharmapuri : Part of Vanniyar Belt. PMK is almost sure to Win This Seat. The Real Threat is from DMDK as was proved in The Assembly Elections of 2006. However, This Constituency is ADMK Bastion too. As ADMK and PMK are Allies in This Election, Again, with Eelam Sentiment going strong, PMK is likely to Retain this seat. However, still an interesting battle on cards.
Bottomline : PMK Clear Winner
11. Tiruvannamali —- one of The Pancha Bootha Lingams (Agni Lingam) is in Tiruvannamalai. Has A Very Famous Shiva Temple. Part of Vanniyar Belt. Main Fight between, PMK and DMK. DMDK too has some presence but, would come a distance Third. However, if DMDK Eats into the congress votes which seems to be more likely in this election, DMDK may close in the margin between second place(dmk) and third place(dmdk). Either case, PMK The Clearly Ahead.
Bottomline : A Sureshot Seat for PMK
12. Arani —- This is A Newly Carved Constituency in The Vanniyar Belt. A Triangular Battle anticipated between AIADMK, Congress and DMDK. While DMDK would certainly come third, it has to be seen how many and whose votes would this party eat into. The Advantage for ADMK is that congress is contesting from here and NOT DMK.
Bottomline : Toss Up. Still Advantage ADMK.
13. Villupuram(Reserved) —- Tough Fight on Cards between AIADMK and Pro Eelam VCK(Formerly Known as dalit panthers of India). However, The Alliance Arithmatic is likely to come in Handy for AIADMK.
Bottomline : Toss Up. Completely unpredictable. VCK might spring a surprise and upset AIADMK, Particularly with DMDK Playing The Role of Spoiler. However, one Can NEVER Write of AIADMK Chief Jayalalithaa. Still, An Interesting Contest Likely on cards.
14. Kallakuruchi —- Another Newly Carved out Seat in The Vanniyar Belt hence increasing the importance of PMK as an Ally in TN Politics. Battle mostly between PMK, which is sitting pretty and DMK, trying hard to convince people that it has done it’s best to save Tamils in SL from The Lankan Offensive. DMDK is trying to establish itself here but is sure to come a distant thrid as they are all alone.
Bottomline : PMK, The Clear Winner in This Constituency
15. Salem —– Known as Steel City of TamilNadu. AIADMK Clearly ahead over it’s one time Ally, Congress. As congress has done nothing for SL Tamils , AIADMK is quite comfortably placed here. DMDK would Obviously eat into the traditional congress votebank. BJP too has put up a candidate here, but, in my view, BJP may even find hard to save deposit in this constituency. KMP might eat into AIADMK Votes but, that Should NOT be of any concern to AIADMK as They are comfortably Ahead. Communists have Good Presence here and can actually tilt the balance. So Does MDMK. Since, both of Them are in Alliance with AIADMK, It’s Advantage AIADMK All The Way.
Bottomline : AIADMK Win Obvious
16. Namakkal —- Another Newly Carved Constituency again in The Vanniyar Belt. Fight between Arch Rivals DMK and AIADMK with AIADMK Comfortably Placed. Non Governance of TN Government, Frequent Powercuts clubbed with Eelam Struggle has put DMK on The Defensive. A Sure Win for AIADMK Particularly with the support of PMK Assured and Vaiko, A Strong Pro Eelam Man in AIADMK Front. Again An Assured Seat for AIADMK.
Bottomline : AIADMK Well Placed and Comfortably Ahead
17. Erode —– Main Battle between Pro Eelam MDMK and Anti Eelam congress. Needless to say Who would be The Winner
Bottomline —- MDMK Surely will Win The Seat
18. Tiruppur —- This is An Industiral Town and The Communists Hold Key. BJP too Does have some Presence here and Sarathkumar’s Party is Contesting This Seat as Part of NDA. MDMK too has a Strong Base here and AIADMK – MDMK Alliance Talks came to A Standstill on Raw over Allotment of This Seat as Both CPI(M) as well as MDMK have Sought This Constituency. As Per Reports, MDMK Threatened to walk over to NDA Camp had this seat been alloted to CPI(M). Jayalalithaa did A GreatJob by retaining This Seat and Thus Pacified both CPI(M) as well as MDMK, who otherwise would have Fielded A Rebel Candidate had it gone to any one of these two parties, thus breaking down the seat sharing. Since, The issue is now settled, AIADMK would Enjoy the support of both the cadres. with DMDK likely to eat into the votes of congress which would test electoral waters from here,AIADMK is likely to Win by A Thumping Margin. Concern for AIADMK is KMP, Which would take considerable section of Gounder Votes.This Region has A Large Gounder Population.
19. Nilgiris(Reserved) —- The Badugas Hold The Key. The Badugas, whose ST status was reverted and have been pushed into OBC have demanded the re-installation of The ST Status(Pre-1961 Status). BJP has some base here and is contesting. Master Mathan, A Baduga Himself has Made Efforts to bring Them Back into ST Category. However, as The Seat is Reserved now for Sheducled Castes,He is unable to contest the seat. Jayalalithaa alloted this constituency to MDMK. The DMK Candidate from here, A. Raja, The Current IT & Communications Minister is A Strong Candidate. Hence, BJP may essentially Back MDMK, A Potential Post Poll Ally. KMP too has fielded A Candidate from here. The Battle might sem interesting but, is clearly between DMK and MDMK. The Corruption charges(Petrol Scam) may hit Raja, The DMK Candidate but, a multi cornered contest with BJP,KMP and DMDK Eating into Anti DMK Votes might help DMK. Congress too has A Good Presence here. However, It is likely that DMDK might cut into the congress votebase.
Bottomline : Toss Up!!!!! completely unpredictable!! However, if The Eelam Factor overrides any other factor. MDMK likely to Emerge as Winner.
20. Coimbatore — One Seat in The Whole of TN, from where, on any given day, CPI(M) would Win The Seat on It’s Own!!!!! This is A Communist Bastion. Except in Late Nineties, when BJP Won This Seat twice(in Alliance with one of The Two Principle Dravidian Parties), This has Remained A Communist Fiefdom. This is A Business Centre and Communists Call The Shots. Congress would be Taking on Communists here. BJP has completely lost it’s influence in This Constituency. DMDK too is likely to obtain a good chunk of votes, mostly from traditional congress votebase. BJP is further weakened here due to KMP fielding it’s candidate.This is The Headquarters of KonguNadu. BJP Commanded support from Kongu Vellala Gounder Community as C P RadhaKrishnan, former BJP MP from Coimbatore is A Gounder. Alliance between BJP and KMP didnt Materialize and as A Result, BJP is likely to come a poor fourth or may be even a fifth!!!!!!!!! As per reports, DMDK might eat into some of The ADMK votes(as ADMK is NOT Contesting from here) and might push congress to a shameful Third!!!!!!! In Any Permutation and Combination, CPI(M) would Win This Seat Handsomely!!!!
Bottomline —- Cakewalk for CPI(M)
RAJ
February 13th, 2010 at 6:35 AM
[...] Tamilnadu seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh : Part 1 … [...]
June 1st, 2009 at 8:06 PM
I did Follow Romila Thapar’s Books as they were part of curriculam in Kendriya Vidyalayas(Central School) as CBSE curriculam is extremely Marxist oriented.
India is already Broken into pieces by sickularists.
christians and muslims NEVER Consider India as Their MotherLand and Respect India.
pect Their Mother while Abusing Her Character.
one cant say, They Respect their Mother While Abusing Her on Her Character.
That is What Minorities and Politically Correct lowlives do.
June 1st, 2009 at 1:13 PM
Hi Raj,
What’s wrong with you! Always steering discussion to religeous classification of people!
You think majority of indians are Church educated/ Madarasa educated/ Marxists’ educated.
Where are you educated… I wonder.
Do you think, people should read only the history written by RSS/ BJP?
Try to understand the real history, gentleman. If majority begin to think you are right, India will break into pieces. Many neutral citizens belonging to the largest religion (in number) do not endorse your (or BJP’s) opinion. That’s why occurred the debacle of BJP.
India need not be a super-power in oppression or suppression; but be a humble country which reders justice for everyone.
Neutral Citizen
May 24th, 2009 at 4:41 PM
@Sriram and Raj,
Completely Agree with you guys…
Hey Muthu, R u a DMK supporter… On whose money he is giving 1Rs rice.. Its we work in front of computers so called AC condition, tax only being used… By providing a 1kg rice and colour TV, He (Karunanithi) is making the coming generation as lazy peoples and illiterate.. Nothing had done for the development of Tamilnadu… Additional bit of infornmation DMK team going to supply Sun DTH for all the peoples around 2010 to impress peoples to get vote in upcoming state election.. In the History of Politics, BMK is the first to introduce money for vote, capturing the booth, etc and now they teach Congress how to malpractise the election…
May 24th, 2009 at 10:44 AM
Neutral Citizen, are you Church Educated?
Guys like you would even deny India ever existed before 1947.
go and give all the credit to Barbarians while belittling ourselves.
They were NOT Monarchs, They were Republics.
No King could rule With Public Anger and Against the will of The People.
But, once muslim invaders gained athourity they didnt mind in killing the rebellious Public and enforced athouritative means to suppress the people’s voice and monarchs started to emerge from then on.
Know The History of India instead of Parrotting what is thought to you in churches and madarsas and by marxists.
May 23rd, 2009 at 9:23 PM
Raj, do you know history?
When muslims came to india, do you think they toppled democratically elected governments and introduced monarchy?
Don’t you know monarchy was the only form of government- whether Hindu king or Muslim sulthan- in those days?
Democracy was an unknown concept for Indians in those days.
Only the British introduced this type of government.
Whatever be the type of government, as Zarina says, people’s acceptance is needed. Terrorrism exists in democracy (as in Srilanka), monarchy (as happened in Nepal, till recently), dictatorship (as happens in Myanmar)…etc etc
Unless the ruler is a philosopher and unless the people of the country reject violence- terrorism can’t be avoided.
Neutral Citizen
May 21st, 2009 at 11:28 AM
zarina, that is applicable to those who are Democratic not to muzzies who rule through atrocities and a reign of terror
May 20th, 2009 at 10:27 PM
Hi Raj!
You are a funny person!
Which area are you from?
Do you have many people like you in your locality?
REMEMBER,
NO RULER CAN RULE THE COUNTRY WITHOUT THE SUPPORT OF THE LOCAL PEOPLE.
Zarina
May 20th, 2009 at 12:24 AM
Stop your nonesense zarina.
Bullshit, FForeigners were NOT Welcomed By The socalled oppressed classes.
teach your nonsense in madarsas
Not on Blogs.
May 19th, 2009 at 9:55 PM
Hi Rajesh!
You have presented a long list of ‘attrocities’ by Muslims in Kashmir etc. But you could have published the source for the informations.
Of course Godhra incidence is a publicised one, but anyone, if not insane will understand, it is impossible to torch a running train from outside. But Modi and BJP can’t understand that!
After every violent rioting agaist Muslims it is a regular practice for BJP, Bajrang Dal etc to assign some reason or other for the rioting. But if you closely look at all the riots have one motive- stealing the Muslims!
By stealing prosperity can’t be achieved. So next riot- or attempt- to become prosperous.
Well, your 5th point ’1000 years of Muslim oppression against Hindus’- the fact is 10000yrs of oppression and suppression of lower caste people resulted in people looking for new leadership… foreigners were welcomed by the oppressed section 1000y back
Zarina
May 18th, 2009 at 10:54 PM
Hey Rajesh, Mr. Muthu is atleast way Better than someone posting as wellwisher who is a wellwisher fot Terrorists and Anti Nationals.
May 18th, 2009 at 8:45 PM
Mr Muthu- what a coward you are!
Blaming even terrorism on the BJP!
If you dont know – there were 37 temples demolished in Kashmir- before Babri demolition- so Muslims are responsible for Babri demolition.
If Babri demolition is the cause of terrorism- greivence for Muslims- then Hindus have following greivences-
1- Demolition of 37 temples in Kashmir before 6 Dec 1992- and 160 after that
2- 1993 bomb blasts killed 257 Hindus in Mumbai- done by Muslims
3- Bomb blasts by Muslims killing hundreds of Hindus throughout India
4- Brutal roasting of 59 Hindus in Godhra- by Muslims
5-1000 years of Muslim oppression against Hindus
By your logic- Babri demolition is responsible for terrorism. Then by that logic- Muslims are responsible for Babri demolition. And in any case- Babri demolition was done not by BJP but by P V Narasimha Rao.
May 17th, 2009 at 1:56 PM
Raj I am surprised about your comments!
Jehadis too are patriots, friend!
A nationlist has a small difference in meaning. Jehadis may not be nationalists but certainly are patriots
Zarina
May 17th, 2009 at 9:35 AM
Let’s not discuss further about this election and let’s accept the verdict given by the majority of the people After-all, the majority of the people have endorsed many things that the ruling governments both at the state and the centre have done in the past few year.
Let’s see some of the secret of success of these governments which the people have endorsed :-
a) Endorsed the soft corner of the Congress towards the Terrorism for the sake of the vote bank from a group of people.
b) Endorsed the misuse of the most of the prestigious beaurocrats & independent institutes CBI, Election Commission and even the President for their personal and party benefits for the case like Quatrochi. Infact, now CBI is renamed as Congress Bureau of Investigation
c) Endorsed the abusing on the Hindus Sentiments in the issues like Ram Sethu just to bag the other community votes (Afterall these politicians know that the majority of the Hindus in this country never objects even if someone seize their rights, as they prefer peace of the country)
d) Endorsed the fulfilment of demands made by the most corrupted and criminals someone like Sibu Soren, just to retain their power
e) Endorsed the courage of showing crores money in front of the media in the parliament itself, by which the they bought the MPs from other parties overnight to win the vote of confidence.
f) Endorsed the kingdom of this country by a single family irrespective of the leader’s nationality
g) Endorsed the leaders and ministers care, vision & forecast for the next generation “of their own family”
h) Endorsed the inflation due to their wrong economic policies
i) Endorsed the sale petroleum products on the much higher side even if the international market gives it in the much lower price
j) Endorsed the unemployment because of the lack of forecast
k) Endorsed the ministers and leader’s savings in the Swiss Bank
l) Endorsed the electricity failure because of the lack knowledge of the minister
m) Endorsed their special concentration on promoting liquor sales
n) Endorsed the smuggling of sand by the MLAs and Ministers
o) Endorsed the CM’s failure in protecting the rights of his own state in the issues like Hokkenakal, Mullai Periyar, Cauvery and Palaru just to retain his power in the state
p) Endorsed the death of 3 innocents worked in the press office, just because of the rift within the CM’s family
q) Endorsed his brilliancy in closing the whole episode of the country’s biggest corruption allegation “spectrum” overnight just by reuniting his family
And there are many more… but the last but not least…
r) The TN people have endorsed the sincere and dedicated work of the CM towards making the people as “top most beggars” of the country by giving money for votes (from the corrupted funds) and by distributing freebies from the public’s funds, so that the people looses their common sense and they don’t think or question about any of the above .
May 17th, 2009 at 1:20 AM
yes, zarina, everybody knows it is Money and Muscle which has won.
now, it’s time for you jehadis to enjoy.
The Worst Day for Nationalists and A Good day for Jehadis.
I can see, that porkisthan and sullah terrorists are extremely Happy with the win of muscle and money power and subjugation of Democracy in Inda
May 17th, 2009 at 12:34 AM
‘Neutral citizen’ has been so open and pointed out the situation in TN very well. TN People are not foolish enough to receive money & loyally vote (which is done in secret way) for the payer. If money was distributed, it is not for voters, but was for media.
Jaya did not join with BJP…. perhaps the only sensible decision by her. She has reallised well that BJP will spoil the serenity of the state. Naveen Patnaik learnt this lesson in his last tenure, whereas Jaya understood this about 5years back. Every Indian is beginning to understand the danger of violence against minorities (on the basis of creed, language, caste etc) is doom to a country- as happens in Srilanka.
About number of votes polled…
Total number of votes polled in a polling station is finallised on the basis of manual counting by the polling officer of the booth and agents. Human error can creep in in this exercise. Let us not ridicule the honesty of election officers on the basis of manual error in counting.
Glad that BJP has conceeded defeat, sad that internet users don’t!
Zarina
May 16th, 2009 at 10:31 PM
Mr. Sriram, anything can happen, but what agonizes me is this is going to remian so for a long term.
Evangelization of India has Started and expect A Minority filled Cabinet
May 16th, 2009 at 8:41 PM
I am very sure TN results are quite surprising…It is matter of money and support of the media groups. One thing worked against ADMK was she acted so opportunistic at the last minute. Rather than aligning with BJP ,she aligned with PMK (who was with UPA till January 2009) and CPM/CPI (Complete Liability especially among educted voters).
May 16th, 2009 at 8:12 PM
E.C Announces P.CHIDMABARAM as the Winner whereas he was trailing till the last round.
Similary, in Viudunagar, the total number of votes counted have exceeded than the actual number of votes recorded on 13th.
Sofar, we knew only that they were distributing money for the voters. Now, when Sonia & Karunanithi can manipulate even the election results with the help of Navin Chawla, , why should the public come and cast their vote?
Why should they waste the public money and time. Let them declare that they have won all the constitutencies.
Then we will not even discuss about it.
May 16th, 2009 at 6:07 PM
well said Mr. SriRam