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Tamilnadu seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh

This entry is part 9 of 11 in the series Pre-poll seatwise predictions by Promise of Reason readers

Dear friends, These are my Predictions for TN. However, I have to Admit, it’s A Rough one going by The Trends and Past Record(Including Delimitation factor takien into consideration).

In TamilNadu, The Key Players this Election would be : AIADMK Combine which includes PMK,MDMK,CPI,CPI(M), DMK-Congress-VCK Combine.
A Lot of Hype surrounding Captain Vijaykanth’s DMDK. However, Poll Observers and Analysts feel that being Directionless, DMDK has lost sheen.Going for The Parliamentary Elections alone, He has refused to Join The Open Invitation of State BJP Chief, Ila Ganesan and instead was seen hobnobbing with TNCC President giving clear indications that He would support upa post polls.Since Tamils are Extremely Angry over congressand would Teach A Lesson to anyone hobnobbing with them in This election, aspersions are being cast on whether he can retain the 8.3% vote he earned in 2006!!!!!
BJP Too has Formed Primarily with Sarathkumar’s Nadar outfit and Karthik’s Thevar outfit. However, As Karthik’s outfit is contesting on BJP’s Symbol, Technically, The Alliance is Primarily between BJP And AISMK of Sarath Kumar.

All Reserved Seats in TN are for SCs Only. There are NO ST Reserved Seats in TN.

1. Tiruvallur(Reserved) —- This Constituency is by And Large the older Sriperambudur Constituency(pre-delimitation). The SC Reserved Assembly Segments are now part of this newly carved constituency. This constituency largely consists of slum dwellers and a lot of them are Evangelized. one can see more churches then Temples in this part of TamilNadu. Hence, can be presumed as A DMK Bastion. Most likely, DMK would Win This Seat. Remember, Tirumavalavan, VCK President too is a dalit christian and he is with DMK Front. Therefore inaction of upa in protecting SL Tamils and continuance of DMK in upa may NOT be an issue here. Even Frequent powercuts too may not divert the evangelized slums in voting for DMK as various christian communities have already pledged their support to dmk led front in TN.

Bottomline : dmk sitting pretty

2.Chennai North —– This constituency has NOT Changed much post delimitation and it is here that SL Tamil issue and Eelam Struggle are A Hot Potato. The Lawers strike and The Government action against lawyers in addition to frequent powercuts is very much an Issue here and The Fight is Primarily between DMK and CPI which was alloted this constituency as part of The Alliance(Infact, CPI Got A Better Deal as far as choice of constituencies is concerned over CPI-M in The AIADMK Front).

Bottomline : Cakewalk for CPI

3. Chennai South —- This is An Elite Constituency. The Per Capita Income of People is Higher in This Constituency in The Whole of TN and is also higher than The National Average. A Educational Hub, IIT, Anna University,Gurunanak Arts College and several other Engineering Colleges, MGR Medical University are all Located in This Constituency. Further, This Constituency has 22% Brahmin Voters. Very High stakes for BJP. BJP has done well by fielding A Brahmin Candidate here, Ila Ganesan, TN BJP Chief. AIADMK and DMK have fielded New faces. DMK Leader in Lok Sabha, union Minister T R Baalu was so sure of getting Defeated from here that he shifted to the now dereserved neighbouring constituency of sriperumbadur. The Anti Ram Barbs of karunanidhi, upa’s pampering of minorities, vote bank politics, Anti Hindu activities of dmk-upa govt.,Terrorism and Governance are An Issue here.
With Cho and Dr. Subramanian Swamy being in BJP(Who constantly Remind of Ram Sethu Issue) and AIADMK Fielding a Non Brahmin, BJP should Make it to Parliament from This Constituency.

Bottomline : BJP Comfortably Ahead.

4. Chennai – Central —-  A DMK Bastion. With Former Union Minister, Dayanidhi Maran back into DMK Fold and The Sun Network and Karunanidhi’s families mending fences, DMK hould Win this seat quite Comfortably though, The SL Tamil Issue may bring down the margin of victory.

Bottomline : Cakewalk for DMK

5. Srierumbudur —– Rajiv who was killed here is long forgotten. AIADMK  has alloted this seat to Ally PMK. DMK has Fielded T R Baalu. Some of The Former South Chennai Assembly segments(particularly DMK Strongholds like Tambaram, a highly christian dominated constituency) have been added into the new Sriperumbadur constituency, hence, should be an easy victory.

Bottomline : DMK Comfortably Ahead.

6. Kancheepuram(Reserved) —- Famous for Kanchi Mutt and Silk Sarees(Highly Popular Wedding Silks) and The Town of Temples. This By Far The Old Chengalpattu Constituency(Pre Delimitation). Likely to be An Easy Seat for AIADMK. DMDK may however play spoilsport, but, stil AIADMK Ahead here in This Constituency.

Bottomline : AIADMK Sitting Pretty

7. Arrakonam —- This seat has been Allotted to PMK in The AIADMK Front and will take over DMK . PMK is certain to retain this seat.

Bottomline : An Interesting Battle on Cards. Toss up, However,PMK has an Edge.

8. Vellore : A Muslim Dominated Constituency. IUML(On DMK Symbol) has Edge here as The Minorities have Pledged their support to dmk-congress since both ar eAnti Hindu and pro minority

Bottomline : Advantage DMK(As IUML Candidate would Technically be DMK Candidate on Electoral Rolls)

9. Krishnagiri —- Issues like Hokkanegal Project and Cauvery Waters Sharing are Hot topics in This Constituency which shares it’s Border with Karnataka. Though BJP has put up A Candidate here, BJP can at the most garner only A Few Votes about 7-9 % a Maximum. Actually, Karnataka being A BJP State, may lower BJP Vote % here than that Anticipated. Fight likely to be between Archrivals DMK and AIADMK. This Region has Traditionally been An AIADMK Bastion ever since AIADMK was Formed.congress used to Win this seat in Alliance with AIADMK. In Assembly Elections, AIADMK always had edge here and won comfortably. for sure, AIADMK Will Win from here!!! However, ADMK Cant be overconfident as DMDK Might uspet the calculations. I Addition, KonguNadu Makkal Peravai, A PMK Like Caste based outfit of Gounders too may play spoilsport.

FootNote : A Little about The Caste Relations. Gounders(KMP) and Vanniayars(PMK) are Anti to each other and share an Acrimonious Relationship. Both have considerabale Influence in this region of Northen TN. Gounders have ben Traditionally with AIADMK but, With Emergence of KMP and PMK being part of AIADMK Front may anger Gounders and They might vote for their own outfit hence spoiling the Chances of ADMK.

Bottomline : May Spring A Surprise, but, Clearly An AIADMK Victory is Anticipated.

PS : BJP and KMP Would Essentially eat into ADMK’s votebase and NOT DMK’s. Hence, I said, can Spring A Surprise. The Factor that might work for AIADMK is that DMDK is eating into congress votebase!!!!!!

10. Dharmapuri : Part of Vanniyar Belt. PMK is almost sure to Win This Seat. The Real Threat is from DMDK as was proved in The Assembly Elections of 2006. However, This Constituency is ADMK Bastion too. As ADMK and PMK are Allies in This Election,  Again, with Eelam Sentiment going strong, PMK is likely to Retain this seat. However, still an interesting battle on cards.

Bottomline : PMK Clear Winner

11. Tiruvannamali —- one of The Pancha Bootha Lingams (Agni Lingam) is in Tiruvannamalai. Has A Very Famous Shiva Temple. Part of Vanniyar Belt. Main Fight between, PMK and DMK. DMDK too has some presence but, would come a distance Third. However, if DMDK Eats into the congress votes which seems to be more likely in this election, DMDK may close in the margin between second place(dmk) and third place(dmdk). Either case, PMK The Clearly Ahead.

Bottomline : A Sureshot Seat for PMK

12. Arani —- This is A Newly Carved Constituency in The Vanniyar Belt. A Triangular Battle anticipated between AIADMK, Congress and DMDK. While DMDK would certainly come third, it has to be seen how many and whose votes would this party eat into. The Advantage for ADMK is that congress is contesting from here and NOT DMK.

Bottomline : Toss Up. Still Advantage ADMK.

13. Villupuram(Reserved) —- Tough Fight on Cards between AIADMK and Pro Eelam VCK(Formerly Known as dalit panthers of India). However, The Alliance Arithmatic is likely to come in Handy for AIADMK.

Bottomline : Toss Up. Completely unpredictable. VCK might spring a surprise and upset AIADMK, Particularly with DMDK Playing The Role of Spoiler. However, one Can NEVER Write of AIADMK Chief Jayalalithaa. Still, An Interesting Contest Likely on cards.

14. Kallakuruchi —- Another Newly Carved out Seat in The Vanniyar Belt hence increasing the importance of PMK as an Ally in TN Politics. Battle mostly between PMK, which is sitting pretty and DMK, trying hard to convince people that it has done it’s best to save Tamils in SL from The Lankan Offensive. DMDK is trying to establish itself here but is sure to come a distant thrid as they are all alone.

Bottomline : PMK, The Clear Winner in This Constituency

15. Salem —– Known as Steel City of TamilNadu. AIADMK Clearly ahead over it’s one time Ally, Congress. As congress has done nothing for SL Tamils , AIADMK is quite comfortably placed here. DMDK would Obviously eat into the traditional congress votebank. BJP too has put up a candidate here, but, in my view, BJP may even find hard to save deposit in this constituency. KMP might eat into AIADMK Votes but, that Should NOT be of any concern to AIADMK as They are comfortably Ahead. Communists have Good Presence here and can actually tilt the balance. So Does MDMK. Since,  both of Them are in  Alliance with AIADMK, It’s Advantage AIADMK All The Way.

Bottomline : AIADMK Win Obvious

16. Namakkal —- Another Newly Carved Constituency again in The Vanniyar Belt. Fight between Arch Rivals DMK and AIADMK with AIADMK Comfortably Placed. Non Governance of TN Government, Frequent Powercuts clubbed with Eelam Struggle has put DMK on The Defensive. A Sure Win for AIADMK Particularly with the support of PMK Assured and Vaiko, A Strong Pro Eelam Man in AIADMK Front. Again An Assured Seat for AIADMK.

Bottomline : AIADMK Well Placed and Comfortably Ahead

17. Erode —– Main Battle between Pro Eelam MDMK and Anti Eelam congress. Needless to say Who would be The Winner

Bottomline —- MDMK Surely will Win The Seat

18. Tiruppur —- This is An Industiral Town and The Communists Hold Key. BJP too Does have some Presence here and Sarathkumar’s Party is Contesting This Seat as Part of NDA. MDMK too has a Strong Base here and AIADMK – MDMK Alliance Talks came to A Standstill on Raw over Allotment of This Seat as Both CPI(M) as well as MDMK have Sought This Constituency. As Per Reports, MDMK Threatened to walk over to NDA Camp had this seat been alloted to CPI(M). Jayalalithaa did A GreatJob by retaining This Seat and Thus Pacified both CPI(M) as well as MDMK, who otherwise would have Fielded A Rebel Candidate had it gone to any one of these two parties, thus breaking down the seat sharing. Since, The issue is now settled, AIADMK would Enjoy the support of both the cadres. with DMDK likely to eat into the votes of congress which would test electoral waters from here,AIADMK is likely to Win by A Thumping Margin. Concern for AIADMK is KMP, Which would take considerable section of Gounder Votes.This Region has A Large Gounder Population.

19. Nilgiris(Reserved) —- The Badugas Hold The Key. The Badugas, whose ST status was reverted and have been pushed into OBC have demanded the re-installation of The ST Status(Pre-1961 Status). BJP has some base here and is contesting. Master Mathan, A Baduga Himself has Made Efforts to bring Them Back into ST Category. However, as The Seat is Reserved now for Sheducled Castes,He is unable to contest the seat. Jayalalithaa alloted this constituency to MDMK. The DMK Candidate from here, A. Raja, The Current IT & Communications Minister is A Strong Candidate. Hence, BJP may essentially Back MDMK, A Potential Post Poll Ally. KMP too has fielded A Candidate from here. The Battle might sem interesting but, is clearly between DMK and MDMK. The Corruption charges(Petrol Scam) may hit Raja, The DMK Candidate but, a multi cornered contest with BJP,KMP and DMDK Eating into Anti DMK Votes might help DMK. Congress too has A Good Presence here. However, It is likely that DMDK might cut into the congress votebase.

Bottomline : Toss Up!!!!! completely unpredictable!! However, if The Eelam Factor overrides any other factor. MDMK likely to Emerge as Winner.

20. Coimbatore — One Seat in The Whole of TN, from where, on any given day, CPI(M) would Win The Seat on It’s Own!!!!! This is A Communist Bastion. Except in Late Nineties, when BJP Won This Seat twice(in Alliance with one of The Two Principle Dravidian Parties), This has Remained A Communist Fiefdom. This is A Business Centre and Communists Call The Shots. Congress would be Taking on Communists here. BJP has completely lost it’s influence in This Constituency. DMDK too is likely to obtain a good chunk of votes, mostly from traditional congress votebase. BJP is further weakened here due to KMP fielding it’s candidate.This is The Headquarters of KonguNadu. BJP Commanded support from Kongu Vellala Gounder Community as C P RadhaKrishnan, former BJP MP from Coimbatore is A Gounder. Alliance between BJP and KMP didnt Materialize and as A Result, BJP is likely to come a poor fourth or may be even a fifth!!!!!!!!! As per reports, DMDK might eat into some of The ADMK votes(as ADMK is NOT Contesting from here) and might push congress to a shameful Third!!!!!!! In Any Permutation and Combination, CPI(M) would Win This Seat Handsomely!!!!

Bottomline —- Cakewalk for CPI(M)

21. Pollachi —-  A Largely Rural Agricultural Constituency in The Western Regions of TamilNadu.  A Clear Fight on Between AIADMK and DMK. Alliance Arithmatic favours ADMK, in Addition, complete non governance on part of DMK and Lankan Tamil Issue would help ADMK. DMDK And KMP might eat into ADMK votebase but may Not damage the prospects of AADMK’s Win. BJP though has fielded A Candidate, might Not be A Player here, particularly as Gounders would vote for KMP and NOT BJP.
Bottomline : AIADMK to Emerge as  Winner
22. Dindigul — An AIADMK Bastion!!!!!! The Negligence of Central Districts And Non Governance would Certainly Strengthen ADMK.
Bottomline : Cakewalk for AIADMK
23. Karur — ADMK has Fielded, ThambiDurai from here. Clealy He is The ONLY Winner. A Traditional ADMK Bastion!!!
Bottomline : Cakewalk for ADMK
24. Tiruchirapalli —- ADMK Comfortably placed. This was Once Communist Stronghold too and with Them in AIADMK Alliance, It must be A Cakewalk for ADMK. Congress might lose it’s votebase to DMDK and BJP too has Lost it’s sway in this constituency after the demise of Kumaramangalam(Ramga). His sister, The BJP Candidate, Lalithaa Kumaramangalam doesnt have The same Charisma. It has to be seen, who would come A Distant second, BJP or DMDK or congress!!!! As AIADMK is Certain to Win This Seat.
Bottomline : Cakewalk for AIADMK
25. Perambalur —- A Largely Rural Constituency. DMK has Nominated An Actor, Napolean(A Christian) and is likely to obtain the Minority votes. However, AIADMK firmly Holds on to it’s Traditional Votebank and The Alliance Arithmatic as well as Governance and Emotive Isues would favour AIADMK.
Bottomline : AIADMK Sitting Comfortably Ahead
26. Cuddalore : This is Again in The Vanniyar Belt. in 2006 TN Assembly Elections, DMDK Shocked PMK By Performing Excellently in This Region!!!! Captain’s Assembly Seat, Virdachallam falls in Cuddalore Constituency. A Triangular Contest likely and DMDK might upset ADMK here. However, Alliance Arithmatic is likely to Help ADMK.
Bottomline : Toss Up!!! A Surprise on Cards, Still Advantage ADMK!!!!!
27. Chidambaram(Reserved) —– Dalit Icon(In TN) and A Very Strong Vocal Supporter of LTTE(Only Next to Vaiko) is contesting from here. As of The Current Situation, Even if Tirumavalavan of VCK Contests Alone, he would Win this seat!!!!!! In Addition, he has got DMK Cadre’s support too. Congress might actually back DMDK here as congress cadres would NOT at any Cost lend support to VCK, particularly as he is NOT Contesting on DMK Symbol. AIADMK has alloted this seat to PMK which made PMK Jittery as both PMK and VCK are strong Eelam Supporters and also enjoy good relationship.
Bottomline : Cakewalk for VCK. has to be seen who would come second, PMK or DMDK.
28. Mayiladuturai —- This is The Constituency of Congress Leader ManiShankar Aiyyar in The Vanniyar Belt. However with PMK in AIADMK Front and Anger against congress and DMK due to ongoing and Never ending Eelam Struggle, congress, A Strong Anti Eelam Party is likely to face The Wrath of The People. In Addition, Duminition of ManiShankar Aiyyar’s status within The Party and Government has actually lessened the winnability of congress from this constituency(one of The Two it won in ADMK Alliance in ’99 General Elections!!!!). DMDK too has some strong presence here but, the alliance arithmatic overwhelmingly Favours AIADMK.
Bottomline : ADMK Comfortably Placed
29. Nagapatinam(Reserved) —- This Constituency has A Huge Christian Population. Muslims too constitue A Sizeable number . Most of The Scheduled Castes are converted christians. The Christian Forum has pledged it’s support to DMK-Congress combine for Obvious Reasons.SSCP would be An Emotive Issue here, particularly as christians are strongly in Favour of implementing the same.CPI is alloted this seat in ADMK front. surprisingly, ADMK did pretty well in This Region as it got returns for The Good Work done post Tsunami. However, Things might Favour DMK here this time as DMDK is more likely o eat into AIADMK Votebase as to DMK/Congress Votebase here. Another good reason to argue for the same is that, AIADMK is NOT Contesting This time. But, it’s Not completely hopless for CPI. The Eelam Issue might Tilt The scales in Favour of CPI. Remember, Eelam issue is close to Fishermen who are large in this constituency. True, most of them are christian. but, voting for CPI is safe for them as CPI would NOT Join hands with BJP.
Bottomline : Toss Up. Nothing Can be Said.
30. Tanjavur : Battle between MDMK(Pro Eelam) vs Congress(Ani Eelam). This has been A DMK Bastion for Long as Tiruvarur, Karunanidhi’s Birthplace and from where he Won Assembly Elections First in ’57 falls under This Parliamentary Constituency. However, with congress getting this seat, it would be Cakewalk for MDMK.
Bottomline : Sure Seat for MDMK.
31. SivaGanga : The Constituency of Former Finance Minister and The Present Home Minsiter, P Chidambaram. High Price Rise and Virtual Silence against Lankan Offensive on Tamils will give him a crushing Defeat. In Adition, The Congress Votebase is likely to be eaten by both ADMK and DMDK. ADMK has Fielded former Minister in TN Cabinet, Rajakannappan(A Yadav), who are in Sizeable Amount in This Constituency. The Complete non governance of both upa and dmk governments will fuel anger against P Chidambaram. Being Home Minister, he remained a mute spectaror to The Lankan offence on Tamils and Hasnt uttered a Word and Strongly defended the inaction of upa govt on the issue and expressed despair and helplessness!!!! In Addition, Alliance Arithmatic Overwhelmingly favours ADMK. Dont be Surptised if P Chidambaram comes a Poor third, besides DMDK!!!!!!!!!!
Bottomline : Cakewalk for AIADMK
32. Madurai — By Fielding Azhagiri, The Son of MK and erstwhile estranged brother of MK Stalin(Karuna’s favourite son), DMK has hit The Jackpot. Sure, a Huge amount of money is being spent just as in Tirumangalam ByPoll by this Prodigal son of muka. CPI(M) Reluctantly accepted this Deal(CPI-M expressed unhappiness as it got A Raw Deal as compared to CPI which got the seats it desired!!!). For Sure, DMK would Win This Seat. In Addition, Madurai has Large section of Muslim Population and as of recent years, the christian population too has increased manifold!!! hence, This would invariably add to DMK’s Votebase!!!
Bottomline : DMK would clearly Win this seat(though through Fraudulent money and muscle power,leeding to Death fo Democracy)
33. Theni —- An AIADMK Bastion. Karthik’s Party, A Thevar outfit might eat into a section of traditional ADMK Votes. However, as his party is contesting on BJP symbol, a large section of Thevars would still remain with ADMK. DMDK too is Expected to come out with good performance in this consituency. But, then again,Non Governance of dmk,upa government, complete negligency of southern and central districts and Alliance Arithmantic are factors that would overwhelmingly Favour ADMK.
Bottomline : AIADMK Clearly Ahead in It’s Bastion.
34. Virudhanagar —- Vaiko is Contesting from This Constituency. Karthik, who initially vied for Ramanathapuram Parliamentary Constituency got  An Extremely Raw Deal and accepted the challenge of contesting Against Vaiko!!!! Vaiko, without Doubt would Win from here with A Thumping Majority!!!!!!!
Bottomline : Only one Winner, Vaiko. Wait till May 16th to Know The Margin of Victory over Rival expected to be anywhere between 3-5 Lakh Votes!!!!!!
35. Ramanathapuram —- BJP has Fielded Tirunavukarasar(A Thevar, Who are Large in This Constituency) and even before BJP Announced His name, DMK got Jittery and instead of renominating the sitting MP, Subbulakshmi Jagadesan, decided to field Actor Ritesh(A Flop Actor in TN), Again A Thevar. However, Tirunavukarasar is still holding on To His Old Following and has Extended it beyond His Home Constituency, Aranthangi(From where He would certainly get a Vote share of over 50%). In Adition, due to large muslim population, this constituency is Polarized. RS nad Hindu Munani have some Base in Muddukalattur and Ramanathapuram Assembly Segments which Got further Consolidated and Strengthened post 2007. The Ramanathapuram MLA(A Muslim) entering The Temple has Communally Polarized The Town and led to communal Violance which got settled after BJP requested the locals to calm down(It must be Noted here that, in TamilNadu, people of Other Religions are NOT Allowed inside Hindu Temples, and if They do so, A Purifying Ceremony would be Performed). The Anti Ram Barbs of dmk and both dmk,congress hell bound on Destroying Ram Sethu has further Strengthened BJP. This is One Seat, even Anti BJP Media feels, BJP Would Win as is Evident with The Huge Crowd, Tirunavukarasar is Drawing even in The Scrothich Heat. As The saying goes “Early Bird Catches Pray”, He is Heading a Hectic Schedule and is quite Impressive. In Addition, The Thevar Outfit of Karthik has Joined Hands with BJP which would further Increase BJP’s Vote Percentage. The Real Fight is Between BJP and AIADMK. However, BJP Must be Extracareful here as Jayalalithaa would put extra efforts in This Constituency to settle scores with her Bete Noire Tirunavukarasar.
Bottomline : Interesting Battle of Egos between Tirunavukarasar  of BJP and Jayalalithaa. However, Advantage BJP. One of The Seats, BJP Can Bet on in TN.
36. Thoothukkudi —- The FisherMen community and Minorities would most likely vote with DMK as The DMK candidate is A Christian too!!! However, ADMK still has Edge based on Three Factors : Eelam Struggle which is close to Fisherman community. But, another issue, close to fisherman community(who for a large section of this constituency) are estranged with ADMK for ADMK promised scrapping of SSCP. SSCP Implementation is Demanded by Fishermen community, who incidenatlly are Evangelised!!! , Alliance Arithmatic and The Third one being Non Governance of state and central governents headed by dmk and upa respectively!!!
Tough Fight on Cards between DMK and Its Archrival ADMK. Presence of DMDK might turn tables in favour of DMK
Bottomline : Tos Up!!! Unpredictable!!!
37. Tenkasi(Reserved) —- CPI has been allotted this seat in the AIADMK Front. Due to a high muslim population, BJP is strong as well.  The Seat sharing Talks between BJP And Sarath Kumar’s AISMK came o a Hlat over this constituency but finally BJP obliged to leave this to AISMK. However, The Latter could NOT Find A Candidate here as This Seat is Reserved for Scheduled Caste and AISMK Doesnt have A Suitable SC Leader in their fold!!!!! Therefore, AISMK Finally decided to support
Dr. Krishnaswamy of Puthiya Tamizhagam,which is in Alliance with A Muslim Outfit. This has upset BJP and BJP initially Toyed with The Idea of fielding It’s Own Candidate. However, BJP has Not fielded any Candidate. As ADMK too is Not contesting from here, there is  A Probability that Krishnaswamy would be supported by BJP too on the assurance of him supporting BJP Post Poll by Merging his Party with AISMK or even better BJP. This is Advantageous for Krishnaswamy as he might get considerable muslim votes in addition to The Dalit votes and a section of Hindu Nadar Votes. In A Four Cornered contest, He might win this seat if he polls around 30% of Total Valid Votes!!!!
Bottomline : CPI has An Edge while, Krishnaswamy of PT might Spring a Surprise!!!!
38. Tirunelveli — Sarath Kumar of AIADMK has An Edge as Nadars Constitute A Good Chunk of Votes here. Fight Primarily between ADMK and AISMK(Which is in Alliance with BJP). A Large section of Old Tiruchengode Constituency(which got scrapped in the delimitation excercise) is now Part of This Constituency.
Bottomline : Tos Up!!! Unpredictable!!! Either AISMK or AIADMK
39. Kanniyakumari —— Our Constituency!!!!(Wink!!). BJP Has Hit The Bull’s Eye by Clinching Deal with The Nadar outfit of Actor Sarath Kumar, who otherwise was eating into The Nadar vote base of BJP. Further, Advani Ji’s Vijay Sankalp Yatra at Nagercoil(The Earlier Name of This Southernmost Constituency in The Mianland of India) was a Grand Success!!! Even The otherwise Anti BJP media now feels that BJP is sitting quite pretty here!!!! All The Other Three Contenders have Fielded Christians who constitute about 60% of The Kanniyakumari Parliamentary Constituency has split The Christian Vote Vertically  into three segments which gives further Advantage to BJP!!!! Also, Pon Radhakrishnan, The BJP Candidate has Started Campaigning Way Earlier, Immediately After He was Introduced By Advani Ji as The Candidate on March 7, 2007 at The TamilNadu Vijay Sankalp Yatra held at Nagercoil.
Bottomline : BJP Clealy Ahead and Quite comfortably Placed. Counted as A Sure Shot Seat for BJP in TN!!!!!
—————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Puducherry(Older Name, Pondicherry) — Battle Primarily Between congress and PMK. Congress has a good base in Puducherry and AIADMK isnt as Strong. Thereby, must be A Easy Victory for Congress. In Addition, BJP is Eating into AIADMK Votebase in Pondicherry. DMDK too has some presence here and may play spoilsport depending on to whose votebase captain is eating into.
Bottomline — Advantage Congress

RAJ

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146 Responses to “Tamilnadu seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh”

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  1. 146
    AIADMK MLA calls on TN Chief Minister « Asianetindia.com Blog Says:

    [...] Tamilnadu seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh : Part 1 … [...]

  2. 145
    RAJ Says:

    I did Follow Romila Thapar’s Books as they were part of curriculam in Kendriya Vidyalayas(Central School) as CBSE curriculam is extremely Marxist oriented.
    India is already Broken into pieces by sickularists.
    christians and muslims NEVER Consider India as Their MotherLand and Respect India.
    pect Their Mother while Abusing Her Character.
    one cant say, They Respect their Mother While Abusing Her on Her Character.

    That is What Minorities and Politically Correct lowlives do.

  3. 144
    Neutral Citizen Says:

    Hi Raj,

    What’s wrong with you! Always steering discussion to religeous classification of people!

    You think majority of indians are Church educated/ Madarasa educated/ Marxists’ educated.
    Where are you educated… I wonder.
    Do you think, people should read only the history written by RSS/ BJP?

    Try to understand the real history, gentleman. If majority begin to think you are right, India will break into pieces. Many neutral citizens belonging to the largest religion (in number) do not endorse your (or BJP’s) opinion. That’s why occurred the debacle of BJP.

    India need not be a super-power in oppression or suppression; but be a humble country which reders justice for everyone.

    Neutral Citizen

  4. 143
    Ram Says:

    @Sriram and Raj,
    Completely Agree with you guys…
    Hey Muthu, R u a DMK supporter… On whose money he is giving 1Rs rice.. Its we work in front of computers so called AC condition, tax only being used… By providing a 1kg rice and colour TV, He (Karunanithi) is making the coming generation as lazy peoples and illiterate.. Nothing had done for the development of Tamilnadu… Additional bit of infornmation DMK team going to supply Sun DTH for all the peoples around 2010 to impress peoples to get vote in upcoming state election.. In the History of Politics, BMK is the first to introduce money for vote, capturing the booth, etc and now they teach Congress how to malpractise the election…

  5. 142
    RAJ Says:

    Neutral Citizen, are you Church Educated?
    Guys like you would even deny India ever existed before 1947.
    go and give all the credit to Barbarians while belittling ourselves.
    They were NOT Monarchs, They were Republics.
    No King could rule With Public Anger and Against the will of The People.

    But, once muslim invaders gained athourity they didnt mind in killing the rebellious Public and enforced athouritative means to suppress the people’s voice and monarchs started to emerge from then on.
    Know The History of India instead of Parrotting what is thought to you in churches and madarsas and by marxists.

  6. 141
    neutral citizen Says:

    Raj, do you know history?
    When muslims came to india, do you think they toppled democratically elected governments and introduced monarchy?
    Don’t you know monarchy was the only form of government- whether Hindu king or Muslim sulthan- in those days?
    Democracy was an unknown concept for Indians in those days.
    Only the British introduced this type of government.

    Whatever be the type of government, as Zarina says, people’s acceptance is needed. Terrorrism exists in democracy (as in Srilanka), monarchy (as happened in Nepal, till recently), dictatorship (as happens in Myanmar)…etc etc
    Unless the ruler is a philosopher and unless the people of the country reject violence- terrorism can’t be avoided.

    Neutral Citizen

  7. 140
    RAJ Says:

    zarina, that is applicable to those who are Democratic not to muzzies who rule through atrocities and a reign of terror

  8. 139
    Zarina Says:

    Hi Raj!

    You are a funny person!
    Which area are you from?
    Do you have many people like you in your locality?
    REMEMBER,
    NO RULER CAN RULE THE COUNTRY WITHOUT THE SUPPORT OF THE LOCAL PEOPLE.
    Zarina

  9. 138
    RAJ Says:

    Stop your nonesense zarina.
    Bullshit, FForeigners were NOT Welcomed By The socalled oppressed classes.
    teach your nonsense in madarsas
    Not on Blogs.

  10. 137
    Zarina Says:

    Hi Rajesh!

    You have presented a long list of ‘attrocities’ by Muslims in Kashmir etc. But you could have published the source for the informations.

    Of course Godhra incidence is a publicised one, but anyone, if not insane will understand, it is impossible to torch a running train from outside. But Modi and BJP can’t understand that!

    After every violent rioting agaist Muslims it is a regular practice for BJP, Bajrang Dal etc to assign some reason or other for the rioting. But if you closely look at all the riots have one motive- stealing the Muslims!

    By stealing prosperity can’t be achieved. So next riot- or attempt- to become prosperous.

    Well, your 5th point ’1000 years of Muslim oppression against Hindus’- the fact is 10000yrs of oppression and suppression of lower caste people resulted in people looking for new leadership… foreigners were welcomed by the oppressed section 1000y back

    Zarina

  11. 136
    RAJ Says:

    Hey Rajesh, Mr. Muthu is atleast way Better than someone posting as wellwisher who is a wellwisher fot Terrorists and Anti Nationals.

  12. 135
    Rajesh Says:

    Mr Muthu- what a coward you are!
    Blaming even terrorism on the BJP!
    If you dont know – there were 37 temples demolished in Kashmir- before Babri demolition- so Muslims are responsible for Babri demolition.
    If Babri demolition is the cause of terrorism- greivence for Muslims- then Hindus have following greivences-
    1- Demolition of 37 temples in Kashmir before 6 Dec 1992- and 160 after that
    2- 1993 bomb blasts killed 257 Hindus in Mumbai- done by Muslims
    3- Bomb blasts by Muslims killing hundreds of Hindus throughout India
    4- Brutal roasting of 59 Hindus in Godhra- by Muslims
    5-1000 years of Muslim oppression against Hindus

    By your logic- Babri demolition is responsible for terrorism. Then by that logic- Muslims are responsible for Babri demolition. And in any case- Babri demolition was done not by BJP but by P V Narasimha Rao.

  13. 134
    zarina Says:

    Raj I am surprised about your comments!
    Jehadis too are patriots, friend!
    A nationlist has a small difference in meaning. Jehadis may not be nationalists but certainly are patriots
    Zarina

  14. 133
    Sriram Says:

    Let’s not discuss further about this election and let’s accept the verdict given by the majority of the people After-all, the majority of the people have endorsed many things that the ruling governments both at the state and the centre have done in the past few year.

    Let’s see some of the secret of success of these governments which the people have endorsed :-

    a) Endorsed the soft corner of the Congress towards the Terrorism for the sake of the vote bank from a group of people.
    b) Endorsed the misuse of the most of the prestigious beaurocrats & independent institutes CBI, Election Commission and even the President for their personal and party benefits for the case like Quatrochi. Infact, now CBI is renamed as Congress Bureau of Investigation
    c) Endorsed the abusing on the Hindus Sentiments in the issues like Ram Sethu just to bag the other community votes (Afterall these politicians know that the majority of the Hindus in this country never objects even if someone seize their rights, as they prefer peace of the country)
    d) Endorsed the fulfilment of demands made by the most corrupted and criminals someone like Sibu Soren, just to retain their power
    e) Endorsed the courage of showing crores money in front of the media in the parliament itself, by which the they bought the MPs from other parties overnight to win the vote of confidence.
    f) Endorsed the kingdom of this country by a single family irrespective of the leader’s nationality
    g) Endorsed the leaders and ministers care, vision & forecast for the next generation “of their own family”
    h) Endorsed the inflation due to their wrong economic policies
    i) Endorsed the sale petroleum products on the much higher side even if the international market gives it in the much lower price
    j) Endorsed the unemployment because of the lack of forecast
    k) Endorsed the ministers and leader’s savings in the Swiss Bank
    l) Endorsed the electricity failure because of the lack knowledge of the minister
    m) Endorsed their special concentration on promoting liquor sales
    n) Endorsed the smuggling of sand by the MLAs and Ministers
    o) Endorsed the CM’s failure in protecting the rights of his own state in the issues like Hokkenakal, Mullai Periyar, Cauvery and Palaru just to retain his power in the state
    p) Endorsed the death of 3 innocents worked in the press office, just because of the rift within the CM’s family
    q) Endorsed his brilliancy in closing the whole episode of the country’s biggest corruption allegation “spectrum” overnight just by reuniting his family

    And there are many more… but the last but not least…

    r) The TN people have endorsed the sincere and dedicated work of the CM towards making the people as “top most beggars” of the country by giving money for votes (from the corrupted funds) and by distributing freebies from the public’s funds, so that the people looses their common sense and they don’t think or question about any of the above .

  15. 132
    RAJ Says:

    yes, zarina, everybody knows it is Money and Muscle which has won.
    now, it’s time for you jehadis to enjoy.
    The Worst Day for Nationalists and A Good day for Jehadis.
    I can see, that porkisthan and sullah terrorists are extremely Happy with the win of muscle and money power and subjugation of Democracy in Inda

  16. 131
    zarina Says:

    ‘Neutral citizen’ has been so open and pointed out the situation in TN very well. TN People are not foolish enough to receive money & loyally vote (which is done in secret way) for the payer. If money was distributed, it is not for voters, but was for media.
    Jaya did not join with BJP…. perhaps the only sensible decision by her. She has reallised well that BJP will spoil the serenity of the state. Naveen Patnaik learnt this lesson in his last tenure, whereas Jaya understood this about 5years back. Every Indian is beginning to understand the danger of violence against minorities (on the basis of creed, language, caste etc) is doom to a country- as happens in Srilanka.
    About number of votes polled…
    Total number of votes polled in a polling station is finallised on the basis of manual counting by the polling officer of the booth and agents. Human error can creep in in this exercise. Let us not ridicule the honesty of election officers on the basis of manual error in counting.
    Glad that BJP has conceeded defeat, sad that internet users don’t!
    Zarina

  17. 130
    RAJ Says:

    Mr. Sriram, anything can happen, but what agonizes me is this is going to remian so for a long term.
    Evangelization of India has Started and expect A Minority filled Cabinet

  18. 129
    latha Says:

    I am very sure TN results are quite surprising…It is matter of money and support of the media groups. One thing worked against ADMK was she acted so opportunistic at the last minute. Rather than aligning with BJP ,she aligned with PMK (who was with UPA till January 2009) and CPM/CPI (Complete Liability especially among educted voters).

  19. 128
    Sriram Says:

    E.C Announces P.CHIDMABARAM as the Winner whereas he was trailing till the last round.

    Similary, in Viudunagar, the total number of votes counted have exceeded than the actual number of votes recorded on 13th.

    Sofar, we knew only that they were distributing money for the voters. Now, when Sonia & Karunanithi can manipulate even the election results with the help of Navin Chawla, , why should the public come and cast their vote?

    Why should they waste the public money and time. Let them declare that they have won all the constitutencies.

    Then we will not even discuss about it.

  20. 127
    RAJ Says:

    well said Mr. SriRam

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