- Maharashtra seatwise prepoll prediction by Arun Narendhranath
- Karnataka seatwise prepoll prediction by Shanthesh
- Andhra Pradesh & Telangana seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
- Assam seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros
- Rajasthan seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros
- Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 1
- Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 2
- 9 northern states prepoll prediction by raja
- Tamilnadu seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
- Pre-poll prediction after phase 3 by Shiladitya Bose
- West Bengal seatwise prepoll prediction by Sameer
Dear friends, These are my Predictions for TN. However, I have to Admit, it’s A Rough one going by The Trends and Past Record(Including Delimitation factor takien into consideration).
In TamilNadu, The Key Players this Election would be : AIADMK Combine which includes PMK,MDMK,CPI,CPI(M), DMK-Congress-VCK Combine.
A Lot of Hype surrounding Captain Vijaykanth’s DMDK. However, Poll Observers and Analysts feel that being Directionless, DMDK has lost sheen.Going for The Parliamentary Elections alone, He has refused to Join The Open Invitation of State BJP Chief, Ila Ganesan and instead was seen hobnobbing with TNCC President giving clear indications that He would support upa post polls.Since Tamils are Extremely Angry over congressand would Teach A Lesson to anyone hobnobbing with them in This election, aspersions are being cast on whether he can retain the 8.3% vote he earned in 2006!!!!!
BJP Too has Formed Primarily with Sarathkumar’s Nadar outfit and Karthik’s Thevar outfit. However, As Karthik’s outfit is contesting on BJP’s Symbol, Technically, The Alliance is Primarily between BJP And AISMK of Sarath Kumar.
All Reserved Seats in TN are for SCs Only. There are NO ST Reserved Seats in TN.
1. Tiruvallur(Reserved) —- This Constituency is by And Large the older Sriperambudur Constituency(pre-delimitation). The SC Reserved Assembly Segments are now part of this newly carved constituency. This constituency largely consists of slum dwellers and a lot of them are Evangelized. one can see more churches then Temples in this part of TamilNadu. Hence, can be presumed as A DMK Bastion. Most likely, DMK would Win This Seat. Remember, Tirumavalavan, VCK President too is a dalit christian and he is with DMK Front. Therefore inaction of upa in protecting SL Tamils and continuance of DMK in upa may NOT be an issue here. Even Frequent powercuts too may not divert the evangelized slums in voting for DMK as various christian communities have already pledged their support to dmk led front in TN.
Bottomline : dmk sitting pretty
2.Chennai North —– This constituency has NOT Changed much post delimitation and it is here that SL Tamil issue and Eelam Struggle are A Hot Potato. The Lawers strike and The Government action against lawyers in addition to frequent powercuts is very much an Issue here and The Fight is Primarily between DMK and CPI which was alloted this constituency as part of The Alliance(Infact, CPI Got A Better Deal as far as choice of constituencies is concerned over CPI-M in The AIADMK Front).
Bottomline : Cakewalk for CPI
3. Chennai South —- This is An Elite Constituency. The Per Capita Income of People is Higher in This Constituency in The Whole of TN and is also higher than The National Average. A Educational Hub, IIT, Anna University,Gurunanak Arts College and several other Engineering Colleges, MGR Medical University are all Located in This Constituency. Further, This Constituency has 22% Brahmin Voters. Very High stakes for BJP. BJP has done well by fielding A Brahmin Candidate here, Ila Ganesan, TN BJP Chief. AIADMK and DMK have fielded New faces. DMK Leader in Lok Sabha, union Minister T R Baalu was so sure of getting Defeated from here that he shifted to the now dereserved neighbouring constituency of sriperumbadur. The Anti Ram Barbs of karunanidhi, upa’s pampering of minorities, vote bank politics, Anti Hindu activities of dmk-upa govt.,Terrorism and Governance are An Issue here.
With Cho and Dr. Subramanian Swamy being in BJP(Who constantly Remind of Ram Sethu Issue) and AIADMK Fielding a Non Brahmin, BJP should Make it to Parliament from This Constituency.
Bottomline : BJP Comfortably Ahead.
4. Chennai – Central —- A DMK Bastion. With Former Union Minister, Dayanidhi Maran back into DMK Fold and The Sun Network and Karunanidhi’s families mending fences, DMK hould Win this seat quite Comfortably though, The SL Tamil Issue may bring down the margin of victory.
Bottomline : Cakewalk for DMK
5. Srierumbudur —– Rajiv who was killed here is long forgotten. AIADMK has alloted this seat to Ally PMK. DMK has Fielded T R Baalu. Some of The Former South Chennai Assembly segments(particularly DMK Strongholds like Tambaram, a highly christian dominated constituency) have been added into the new Sriperumbadur constituency, hence, should be an easy victory.
Bottomline : DMK Comfortably Ahead.
6. Kancheepuram(Reserved) —- Famous for Kanchi Mutt and Silk Sarees(Highly Popular Wedding Silks) and The Town of Temples. This By Far The Old Chengalpattu Constituency(Pre Delimitation). Likely to be An Easy Seat for AIADMK. DMDK may however play spoilsport, but, stil AIADMK Ahead here in This Constituency.
Bottomline : AIADMK Sitting Pretty
7. Arrakonam —- This seat has been Allotted to PMK in The AIADMK Front and will take over DMK . PMK is certain to retain this seat.
Bottomline : An Interesting Battle on Cards. Toss up, However,PMK has an Edge.
8. Vellore : A Muslim Dominated Constituency. IUML(On DMK Symbol) has Edge here as The Minorities have Pledged their support to dmk-congress since both ar eAnti Hindu and pro minority
Bottomline : Advantage DMK(As IUML Candidate would Technically be DMK Candidate on Electoral Rolls)
9. Krishnagiri —- Issues like Hokkanegal Project and Cauvery Waters Sharing are Hot topics in This Constituency which shares it’s Border with Karnataka. Though BJP has put up A Candidate here, BJP can at the most garner only A Few Votes about 7-9 % a Maximum. Actually, Karnataka being A BJP State, may lower BJP Vote % here than that Anticipated. Fight likely to be between Archrivals DMK and AIADMK. This Region has Traditionally been An AIADMK Bastion ever since AIADMK was Formed.congress used to Win this seat in Alliance with AIADMK. In Assembly Elections, AIADMK always had edge here and won comfortably. for sure, AIADMK Will Win from here!!! However, ADMK Cant be overconfident as DMDK Might uspet the calculations. I Addition, KonguNadu Makkal Peravai, A PMK Like Caste based outfit of Gounders too may play spoilsport.
FootNote : A Little about The Caste Relations. Gounders(KMP) and Vanniayars(PMK) are Anti to each other and share an Acrimonious Relationship. Both have considerabale Influence in this region of Northen TN. Gounders have ben Traditionally with AIADMK but, With Emergence of KMP and PMK being part of AIADMK Front may anger Gounders and They might vote for their own outfit hence spoiling the Chances of ADMK.
Bottomline : May Spring A Surprise, but, Clearly An AIADMK Victory is Anticipated.
PS : BJP and KMP Would Essentially eat into ADMK’s votebase and NOT DMK’s. Hence, I said, can Spring A Surprise. The Factor that might work for AIADMK is that DMDK is eating into congress votebase!!!!!!
10. Dharmapuri : Part of Vanniyar Belt. PMK is almost sure to Win This Seat. The Real Threat is from DMDK as was proved in The Assembly Elections of 2006. However, This Constituency is ADMK Bastion too. As ADMK and PMK are Allies in This Election, Again, with Eelam Sentiment going strong, PMK is likely to Retain this seat. However, still an interesting battle on cards.
Bottomline : PMK Clear Winner
11. Tiruvannamali —- one of The Pancha Bootha Lingams (Agni Lingam) is in Tiruvannamalai. Has A Very Famous Shiva Temple. Part of Vanniyar Belt. Main Fight between, PMK and DMK. DMDK too has some presence but, would come a distance Third. However, if DMDK Eats into the congress votes which seems to be more likely in this election, DMDK may close in the margin between second place(dmk) and third place(dmdk). Either case, PMK The Clearly Ahead.
Bottomline : A Sureshot Seat for PMK
12. Arani —- This is A Newly Carved Constituency in The Vanniyar Belt. A Triangular Battle anticipated between AIADMK, Congress and DMDK. While DMDK would certainly come third, it has to be seen how many and whose votes would this party eat into. The Advantage for ADMK is that congress is contesting from here and NOT DMK.
Bottomline : Toss Up. Still Advantage ADMK.
13. Villupuram(Reserved) —- Tough Fight on Cards between AIADMK and Pro Eelam VCK(Formerly Known as dalit panthers of India). However, The Alliance Arithmatic is likely to come in Handy for AIADMK.
Bottomline : Toss Up. Completely unpredictable. VCK might spring a surprise and upset AIADMK, Particularly with DMDK Playing The Role of Spoiler. However, one Can NEVER Write of AIADMK Chief Jayalalithaa. Still, An Interesting Contest Likely on cards.
14. Kallakuruchi —- Another Newly Carved out Seat in The Vanniyar Belt hence increasing the importance of PMK as an Ally in TN Politics. Battle mostly between PMK, which is sitting pretty and DMK, trying hard to convince people that it has done it’s best to save Tamils in SL from The Lankan Offensive. DMDK is trying to establish itself here but is sure to come a distant thrid as they are all alone.
Bottomline : PMK, The Clear Winner in This Constituency
15. Salem —– Known as Steel City of TamilNadu. AIADMK Clearly ahead over it’s one time Ally, Congress. As congress has done nothing for SL Tamils , AIADMK is quite comfortably placed here. DMDK would Obviously eat into the traditional congress votebank. BJP too has put up a candidate here, but, in my view, BJP may even find hard to save deposit in this constituency. KMP might eat into AIADMK Votes but, that Should NOT be of any concern to AIADMK as They are comfortably Ahead. Communists have Good Presence here and can actually tilt the balance. So Does MDMK. Since, both of Them are in Alliance with AIADMK, It’s Advantage AIADMK All The Way.
Bottomline : AIADMK Win Obvious
16. Namakkal —- Another Newly Carved Constituency again in The Vanniyar Belt. Fight between Arch Rivals DMK and AIADMK with AIADMK Comfortably Placed. Non Governance of TN Government, Frequent Powercuts clubbed with Eelam Struggle has put DMK on The Defensive. A Sure Win for AIADMK Particularly with the support of PMK Assured and Vaiko, A Strong Pro Eelam Man in AIADMK Front. Again An Assured Seat for AIADMK.
Bottomline : AIADMK Well Placed and Comfortably Ahead
17. Erode —– Main Battle between Pro Eelam MDMK and Anti Eelam congress. Needless to say Who would be The Winner
Bottomline —- MDMK Surely will Win The Seat
18. Tiruppur —- This is An Industiral Town and The Communists Hold Key. BJP too Does have some Presence here and Sarathkumar’s Party is Contesting This Seat as Part of NDA. MDMK too has a Strong Base here and AIADMK – MDMK Alliance Talks came to A Standstill on Raw over Allotment of This Seat as Both CPI(M) as well as MDMK have Sought This Constituency. As Per Reports, MDMK Threatened to walk over to NDA Camp had this seat been alloted to CPI(M). Jayalalithaa did A GreatJob by retaining This Seat and Thus Pacified both CPI(M) as well as MDMK, who otherwise would have Fielded A Rebel Candidate had it gone to any one of these two parties, thus breaking down the seat sharing. Since, The issue is now settled, AIADMK would Enjoy the support of both the cadres. with DMDK likely to eat into the votes of congress which would test electoral waters from here,AIADMK is likely to Win by A Thumping Margin. Concern for AIADMK is KMP, Which would take considerable section of Gounder Votes.This Region has A Large Gounder Population.
19. Nilgiris(Reserved) —- The Badugas Hold The Key. The Badugas, whose ST status was reverted and have been pushed into OBC have demanded the re-installation of The ST Status(Pre-1961 Status). BJP has some base here and is contesting. Master Mathan, A Baduga Himself has Made Efforts to bring Them Back into ST Category. However, as The Seat is Reserved now for Sheducled Castes,He is unable to contest the seat. Jayalalithaa alloted this constituency to MDMK. The DMK Candidate from here, A. Raja, The Current IT & Communications Minister is A Strong Candidate. Hence, BJP may essentially Back MDMK, A Potential Post Poll Ally. KMP too has fielded A Candidate from here. The Battle might sem interesting but, is clearly between DMK and MDMK. The Corruption charges(Petrol Scam) may hit Raja, The DMK Candidate but, a multi cornered contest with BJP,KMP and DMDK Eating into Anti DMK Votes might help DMK. Congress too has A Good Presence here. However, It is likely that DMDK might cut into the congress votebase.
Bottomline : Toss Up!!!!! completely unpredictable!! However, if The Eelam Factor overrides any other factor. MDMK likely to Emerge as Winner.
20. Coimbatore — One Seat in The Whole of TN, from where, on any given day, CPI(M) would Win The Seat on It’s Own!!!!! This is A Communist Bastion. Except in Late Nineties, when BJP Won This Seat twice(in Alliance with one of The Two Principle Dravidian Parties), This has Remained A Communist Fiefdom. This is A Business Centre and Communists Call The Shots. Congress would be Taking on Communists here. BJP has completely lost it’s influence in This Constituency. DMDK too is likely to obtain a good chunk of votes, mostly from traditional congress votebase. BJP is further weakened here due to KMP fielding it’s candidate.This is The Headquarters of KonguNadu. BJP Commanded support from Kongu Vellala Gounder Community as C P RadhaKrishnan, former BJP MP from Coimbatore is A Gounder. Alliance between BJP and KMP didnt Materialize and as A Result, BJP is likely to come a poor fourth or may be even a fifth!!!!!!!!! As per reports, DMDK might eat into some of The ADMK votes(as ADMK is NOT Contesting from here) and might push congress to a shameful Third!!!!!!! In Any Permutation and Combination, CPI(M) would Win This Seat Handsomely!!!!
Bottomline —- Cakewalk for CPI(M)
RAJ
Take a look at these related posts:
- Andhra Pradesh & Telangana seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
- Assam seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros
- Rajasthan seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros
- Karnataka seatwise prepoll prediction by Shanthesh
- Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 1
April 30, 2009 at 5:57 PM
Your prediction might be work.You should predict about Rahul Gandhi too.
April 30, 2009 at 6:30 PM
chennai south to BJP??????? Is this some kind of joke? It will go to AIADMK for sure because 50% brahmin votes will go for AIADMK and the rest will get split up for BJP and Independent candiadate Sarat Babu( he is favourite of the youth). So your prediction regarding BJP can go wrong.
April 30, 2009 at 7:35 PM
NO Way.
Brahmins Would NOT Vote for AIADMK This time Around.Brahmins have been repeatedly Treated with Contempt and Jayalalithaa has Taken BJP Vote for Granted.
Brahmins have Decided to Teach Jaya A Lesson She WONT Forget.
Further, Ila Ganesan is A Well Known Man in South Chennai, Particularly amongst The Brahmin Community while ADMK Candidate is A Novice and a Non Brahmin.
April 30, 2009 at 7:37 PM
Sarath Bbaumight be A Popular, but, South Chennai Voter is Intelligent Enough NOT to let His Vote go in Vain.
April 30, 2009 at 8:41 PM
Several Typo Errors!!! I NEVER Do The Proof Reading
April 30, 2009 at 8:49 PM
Good analysis. Its in the best interest of BJP to have congress completely routed in TN but DMK should win close to 8 or 9 seats so as to checkmate amma. My only worry is if amma wins all 39 seats then she can play her tricks and we can seen that in past.
I too feel BJP will open its account without any major alliance in TN for the first time. In that way it will be a defining moment in TN politics. Vijayakant might not win even a single seat. It would have been if he too aligned with BJP as it would have third alternative to people who are fed with AIADMK/DMK. But the change is on cards and if not in this parlimentary elections i can see that happening in future. BJP will play a pivotal role in that alliance.
At least BJP has good chance in chennai south, nagercoil, tenkasi and the constituency from where Thirunavukarasar is constesting.
April 30, 2009 at 9:24 PM
Friendly Correction Dear Ram, Nagercoil is Rechristened as Kanniyakumari and Tirunavukarasar is contesting from Ramanathapuram Parliamentary Constituency and NOT in Tenkasi
Have also sent The Second Part where AIADMK has Better Chance!!!!
That might be Posted By Tommorrow
April 30, 2009 at 10:06 PM
of These 20 Seats :
AIADMK Front Likely to Win —- 13/15
DMK Front —– 4/6
BJP — 1
April 30, 2009 at 11:00 PM
I think the only chance for BJP is in Kanyakumari. I am 100% certain that they are not winning any other seats like South Chennai or Ramanathapuram. Also you are underestimating the influence of Azhagiris organisational muscle and money power in the south.And you are overestimating SarathKumar and Karthiks partys strength. Remember Saraths candidate got only 750 votes in the Thirumangalam bye election polling lower than an minor hindu party. So I dont think he is going to get the Nadar votes en masse. Overall your analysis is biased towards the ADMK alliance. Also you are underestimating the power of Rs 1 rice and free color TV schemes. Eelam is not going to be the determining factor in this election except for a small % of people. So my take is it will be 55%-45% in favor of ADMK+. The ideal scenario for BJP would be like this
BJP – 1-2 seats
ADMK – 13-15
DMK – 13-15
PMK-4-6
MDMK- 2-3
Commies-0
CONgress – 0
But that would not happen. But I am hoping that DMK and ADMK individual number shoud be very close to each other and CONgress gets wiped out or gets as liltte as possible and Commies gets wiped out and then PMK and MDMK gets 6 to 8 seats between them. This way BJP can get support DMK or ADMK depending upon where the other side goes. The PMK and MDMK seats can be bought for a reasonable price. I hope that above scenario happens.
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May 1, 2009 at 8:18 AM
dmk front will win half of the seats in tamilnad
May 1, 2009 at 8:19 AM
srilanka issue will not having any impact in tamilnad
May 1, 2009 at 8:21 AM
dmk and admk front wim 15-18 seats, bjp will win in 2-4 seats and and mdmk will win in 1-3 seats
May 1, 2009 at 8:25 AM
right , SL issue will not be a issue in the current election. admk will not going to win according to the prediction. when compare admk, dmk is far far better than admk
May 1, 2009 at 8:29 AM
Phase III is spread across saffron strongholds. Four men, like regional satraps — 3 from the BJP — 1 from NDA — on the good governance plank — will dictate the verdict. The BJP assessment for this round is:
NDA will win 60 seats against 44 in 2004
Gain in Gujarat, Bihar, UP and Maharashtra
Suffer very minor losses in MP, and Karnataka
The phase is also Narendra Modi’s litmus test. He may not only help Advani’s quest for the PM’s post but also put himself in the reckoning for 2014.
“It’s encouraging. I do calculations but do not share,” said Narendra Modi, Chief Minister, Gujarat.
At the party headquarter, the positive war room spin is being openly shared over cups of tea. Poor turn out due to soaring temperature and marriage season is a worry – so appeals to voters are being issued.
With no major setbacks in sight the BJP hopes to win more to emerge as the single largest party. The mood is upbeat — but one word of caution — the BJP even if losing usually has the swagger of a winner, Congress even if winning the body language of a loser.
May 1, 2009 at 8:40 AM
Dear Karthik, Azhagiri would be Forced to concentrate on Madurai and to some extent can have influence in Dindigul and Theni Constituencies, in Central TN. In Madurai, Nadars are NOT in Sizeable Number.
Ramanathapuram is Different. Thirunavukarasar NEVER Lost an Election. He is Aranthangi StrongMan and A Favourite. He is Drawing Huge Crowds though He isnt A Glamorous Actor or A Statewide Leader.
Had, I overestimated Karthik’s Strength, I would have mentioned Karthik would come atleast third in Virudhnagar, But I Never mentioned the same. I am sure, Karthik would come a cropper.
May 1, 2009 at 8:52 AM
Dear Karthik, I Must Thank You for Your Constructive Criticism.
However, I have given More seats to DMK then one would expect from me.
I accept congress would Draw A Blank in TN and Might Win from Puducherry.
But, how can You think communists would draw A Blank?
Coimbatore, Chennai North and Tenkasi/Nagapattinam are Seats The Communists would Win.
My Estimation for TN :
BJP : 2-3(One may Accuse me of being Biased!!!)
congress : NIL
CPI(M) : 1
CPI : 2-3
PMK : 5
MDMK :3-4
VCK : 1-2
DMDK : 1
AISMK :1
PT(Krishnaswamy@Tenkasi):0-1
ADMK :14-16
DMK : 9-11
Lone Seat in Puducherry : congress would win
May 1, 2009 at 9:40 AM
I would broad agree with the pre pol seat wise projection put up by Yellayi Rajesh. The following aspects will also have to be taken into account in the projection and in individual seats.
1. The DMDK will be a major factor this polls. It is likely to damage the AIADMK in southern TN and he DMK in the northern districts. The possibility of DMDK winning a couple of seats like for example Kallakurichi cannot be ruled out.
2. The Anti Congress sentiment has now turned more vigorous and is also moving towards an anti DMK sentiment with all and sundry mocking the sham of a fast undretaken the DMK chief.
3. In Chennai south the BJP has put its best face forward but that does not automatically mean victory. The Brahmin population in Chennai South may at best be around 15% and only if all of them vote and in favoyr of BJP would the BJP get back their deposit. Anyway it ius better for the optimism to prevail than to start on a negative mind set.
4. As regards Vellore it does have some areas of Muslim domination but that by itself dosen’t guarantee IUML(under DMK symbol)victory.
5. It is now almost certain that Mr. Raja is going to loose in Nilgiris.
6. Chidambaram constituency has undergone a sea change after the delimitation and the VCK strong holds have been sliced off. It will not be easy for Thirumavalavan and the unpopularity of the DMK will rub on him as he has taken a strident stand and backed the wrong horse.
7. In the 2004 assembly election the Forward Bloc faction of Karthik did well in two segments of the Virudhnagar Lok constituency. With ThrunavAkarasar, Sarath Kumar and BJP support he may well garner about 75000 plus votes.
8. As regards Azhagiri in Madurai the fear psychosis is overwhelming and even the Tamil nadu Brahmins association have issued a statement in support to Azhagiri who is a self confessed athiest(?).
9. From all accounts this election is likely to see the DMK face massive losses both in terms of seats and vote share. There may be abouTr 3 to 4 seats that may go to parties outside the AIADMK front or DMK frONT.
May 1, 2009 at 10:02 AM
Thank You Hari
I was actually Waiting for Your response to my prediction. I waited so long, as I Was Anticipating, You might Post The Prediction. As that didnt happen, I had to Post one.
I feel Villupuram is The Best Bet for DMDK. The Hindu Article I read today about Kallakuruchi Constituency states, PMK is comfortably placed!!!!
May 1, 2009 at 10:50 AM
PMK would probably end up with 3-5.
Tough Seats for PMK : Puducherry,Sriprambudur,Chidambaram,
Arrakkonam.
Comfortable seats for PMK : Kallakuruchi,Dharmapuri,
Tiruvannamalai
May 1, 2009 at 10:51 AM
* I am sorry, in Arrakkonam, PMK is comfortably Placed.
May 1, 2009 at 12:56 PM
Karthik is reading too much to the votes polled in Thirumangalam Constituency. Sarath Kumar has a fairly decent and vociferous following among the Nadar communinity. Unforunately in this first padst the post system even the party supporters tend to vote strategically to ensure that the finbal outcome can be influenced in a way that their bigger enemy is defeated. The BJP in Tamil Nadu has always polled much less than its potential as it is not percieved to have winnability.It is time for India to move towards a propoirtional Representation system that is quite common in all advanced democracies.
May 1, 2009 at 12:59 PM
The proportional represntation system will ensure that unholy alliances do not take place. In the longer run the parties that pamper to regional aspirations will find that their say is reduced.
May 1, 2009 at 1:20 PM
The Tamil Nadu Brahmins association has announced the list of candidated it is supporting in various constituencies. The list may be a surprise to many as 20 candidates of the AIADMK including 3 from the communists are there in the list, 10 are from the DMK front of which 6 are from the DMK including Azhagiri and Dayanidhi, 8 From the BJP front 1 for Vijaykanth’s brother in law at Kallakurichi and one for the BSP at Chidambaram.
May 1, 2009 at 6:45 PM
If BJP can win at least one seat (Kanyakumari) that will be a good sign….In Chennai BJP doesn’t have any chance. Kanyakumari it is BJP which is running a good campaign….It looks like since Congress is not having a candidate a large number of christian voters seems to be going to support CPM candidate and may tilt the balance towards them. This is one of the constituency where national parties are stronger than regional parties.
May 2, 2009 at 12:27 AM
complete analysis is here http://promiseofreason.com/pre-poll-prediction-after-phase-3-by-shiladitya-bose/
Based on feedback received from the ground in some states as well as newspaper, TV reports, web blogs and discussions during the 3 phases of “India Votes 2009”, my state wise estimate is given below. I would request all readers to give your valuable inputs also.
State NDA UPA Left Others Total
Manipur 0 2 0 0 2
Meghalaya 2 0 0 0 2
Arunachal 2 0 0 0 2
Mizoram 0 1 0 0 1
Tripura 0 0 2 0 2
Nagaland 1 0 0 0 1
Sikkim 0 0 0 1 1
Goa 1 1 0 0 2
Chandigarh 1 0 0 0 1
Dadra & Nagar 1 0 0 0 1
Lakshwadip 0 1 0 0 1
Andaman 1 0 0 0 1
Daman Diu 1 0 0 0 1
Total 10 5 2 1 18
THE BIG PICTURE
a)NDA [BJP, JD(U), SHS, INLD, RLD, SAD, AGP, NCP in NE (P.Sangma)] = 195-200
b)UPA [INC, NCP, DMK, MUL, MIM, KEC, NC, TMC] = 170-175
c)3rd front [Left, TDP, TRS, BJD, AIADMK+, JD(S), BSP] = 140-145
d)4th front [RJD, SP, LJP] = 30-35
e)Others / Independents = 01-02
NATIONAL PARTIES
a) BJP = 150-155
b) INC = 140-145
The catch is if NDA slips in the crucial swing states of UP, Maharashtra, and/or performs worse than predicted by me in Bihar, Karnataka, Gujarat and/or TDP/Left alliance slips in AP, then it would be tough for LKA to realize his dream.
May 2, 2009 at 5:06 AM
Hello,
Thanks for the breakdown. It was a very interesting read. I’m from Coimbatore and in favor of KMP. You don’t think they would win even one seat? That is a little disappointing. I thought Pollachi would go for KMP. It is usually a MDMK stronghold but just to file the nomination there were 15000 people for Best Ramamsamy. Anyways, good luck to all the candidates. May the best person(s) win in all seat(s).
May 2, 2009 at 12:32 PM
Dear Vignesh and Manju, Thanks for Your Appreciation.
Dear Vignesh, since, This is The Maiden Elections of KMP, I Personally feel, That They would Play The Role of A Spoiler rather than that of being A Winner.
I didnt want to Disappoint any KMP Supporter. But, for KMP to Win Any Seat(Say, Pollachi/Coimbatore/Tirupur)being Viewed as A Caste Based outfit, KMP should poll A Minimum of 30-32% of Popular Vote to have any Chance and for that there should be such a High Gounder Population in These Constituencies.
May 2, 2009 at 2:17 PM
I have created a poll in my blog where you can vote for your favorite candidate in all the 40 constituencies of Tamil Nadu/Pondicherry in two parts. here is the link to the polls. http://www.sonyvellayani.com/2009/04/lok-sabha-elections-2009-predict.html
May 2, 2009 at 4:03 PM
Dear Brijesh, good work, but, some of the potentially winnable candidates like Krishnaswamy @ Ten Kasi Dont figure.
Otherwise, A Good One
May 2, 2009 at 6:05 PM
Hii all,
It is great joke of 2009 that Illa.Ganasehan is going to win the South Chennai Lokshaba constituency and also in Kanyakumari(Nagercoil) Lokshaba constituency BJP will not get more votes than the votes got in 1996 Lokshaba elections(It scored 1,69,000 votes)which was after the peak of Ayodhya movement. In assembly elections 2006 it scored only 1,10,000 votes and lost deposits in four assembly segments out of seven assembly segments in Kanyakumari. Kanyakumari constituency is not caste sensitive constituency but religious sensitive constituency. Even though Nadar (Both Christians and Hindus)majority constituency Sarath Kumar has no hold in this constituency.Both Congress and DMK are very strong and will account more than 3 lakhs votes. CPM and ADMK will account 2.25 lakhs votes.
After 1996 the party which supported by DMK is winning the elections in this constituency.In 1996,1998 – TMC, 1999 – BJP, 2004 – CPM and in 2009 it should be DMK.
DMK will score 2.90 lakhs to 3.25 lakhs, CPM will score 2.25 to 2.40 lakhs, BJP will score 1.10 to 1.30 lakhs, DMDK will score .7 to 1 lakhs votes and BSP will score 25 to 30 thousand votes.
May 2, 2009 at 6:07 PM
Hii all,
It is great joke of 2009 that Illa.Ganasehan is going to win the South Chennai Lokshaba constituency and also in Kanyakumari(Nagercoil) Lokshaba constituency BJP will not get more votes than the votes got in 1996 Lokshaba elections(It scored 1,69,000 votes)which was after the peak of Ayodhya movement. In assembly elections 2006 it scored only 1,10,000 votes from seven assembly segments in Kanyakumari Constituency and lost deposits in four assembly segments out of seven assembly segments in Kanyakumari. Kanyakumari constituency is not caste sensitive constituency but religious sensitive constituency. Even though Nadar (Both Christians and Hindus)majority constituency Sarath Kumar has no hold in this constituency.Both Congress and DMK are very strong and will account more than 3 lakhs votes. CPM and ADMK will account 2.25 lakhs votes.
After 1996 the party which supported by DMK is winning the elections in this constituency.In 1996,1998 – TMC, 1999 – BJP, 2004 – CPM and in 2009 it should be DMK.
DMK will score 2.90 lakhs to 3.25 lakhs, CPM will score 2.25 to 2.40 lakhs, BJP will score 1.10 to 1.30 lakhs, DMDK will score .7 to 1 lakhs votes and BSP will score 25 to 30 thousand votes.
May 2, 2009 at 6:13 PM
I dont think BJP can win south chennai,Suppose if u think all brahmins in constituency vote for BJP(whop froma rnd 24%)
The rest 76% is going to be split across other parties.So any one party would get atleast 30% vote share and will win
May 2, 2009 at 6:39 PM
Tamilnadu seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh is totally biased and in support of BJP and NDA.
1.It must be Noted here that, in TamilNadu, people of Other Religions are NOT Allowed inside Hindu Temples, and if They do so, A Purifying Ceremony would be Performed. It is wrong comment and that particular issue was politicised by BJP and VHP(mainly Bharamins)mainly by Vinayak Murali a Bharamin from Ramanathapuram. What is wrong in the Muslim man is going to the Ramanathaswamy Temple? Every day hundreds of foreigners are visiting the Ramanathaswamy Temple and BJP is not making the issue at all. As per their(BJPs’)view If Indian Muslim citizen visited the temple is wrong and hundreds of foreigners(may be Christians, Muslims, Sikhs and Buddihist) are right.
2.The Anti Ram Barbs of DMK and both DMK,Congress hell bound on Destroying Ram Sethu has further Strengthened BJP. It is not a elelection issue at all in Tamil Nadu and even in Ramanathapuram Lokshaba Constituency also(for additional information Sedhu project was cleared by same Thirunavukarasar a BJP Candidate).It is sad to see BJP is not in position to make an issue about Sedhu project in Ramanathapuram itself. Most of the people are supporting Sedhu project other than fisher folk.(Christians as per Yellayi Rajesh)
May 2, 2009 at 6:43 PM
Most of the Brahmins will not vote for BJP in Tamil Nadu and only 5 to 10% of Brahmins will vote for BJP. Ella Ganashen will get around 60,000 votes.
May 2, 2009 at 8:33 PM
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Third phase confusion
The gradually shrinking turnout figures–with a direct correlation to the rising mercury–is making it very difficult to say anything concrete about the outcome in terms of seats.
Moreover, in this phase there appears to be a sharp mismatch between those who have gathered quantitative data and those who rely on more conventional journalistic methods.
Where there is a conflict of conclusions I have given both views:
In Madhya Pradesh there is no question that the BJP has won a majority of seats. The exit pollster says it is a conclusive victory and that the BJP tally will improve over 2009. Some party activists whose views are generally reliable aren’t that optimistic. They see a definite slippage in the Malwa region and final tally of BJP 20 and Congress 9.
The same confusion prevails as far as Karnataka is concerned. The pollsters who rely on actual exit polls say that it is a conclusive BJP victory verging on a clean sweep. Journalists who were there on polling day say that heavy voting by Muslims and Christians will see a BJP defeat in the Mangalore belt (a similar trend was reported earlier from Bangalore), This fear is shared by some senior BJP leaders too. However, the pollsters are adamant that the Congress performance has been dismal.
There is relatively less confusion in Uttar Pradesh. There is a consensus that Congress has done very well in Phase 3 and may win seats it has not won since 1984. It has received silent but en masse Muslim support in constituencies such as Lucknow and it has picked up Dalit and upper-caste votes too. However, it is unlikely that this will translate into victories in more than 2 to 3 seats in this phase since the party proceeds from a very low base. The BJP on the other hand may pick up anything between 3 and 5 seats in this phase. Its popular vote is thought to be fractionally below that of the BSP and SP. Like in Phase 2 the SP may be the big loser (although by way of caution let me add that a similar prognosis turned out to be unfounded in both 1999 and 2004). The BSP is picking up seats steadily but the overall tally is nowhere commensurate with what Mayawati won in 2007.
Apart from NDTV which is forecating a decisive 30-18 win for the Congress-NCP, other pollsters are predicting exactly the opposite result. In the 10 seats of Phase 3, the most generous tally for the Congress is 5 seats. The overall impression is one of a 50:50 divide with the BJP-SS having an advantage in terms of popular votes.
The direction of the overall Gujarat result isn’t in any doubt. Pollsters are predicting anything between 19 and 21 seats for the BJP. The only cautionary note is that there is only a 3-4 per cent difference in the popular vote of the BJP and Congress.
There are two views on the 14 seats of West Bengal that polled in Phase 3. The pollsters are suggesting a decisive Left win with the Cong-TMC picking up at best 4 seats. I have not heard alternative suggestions.
The belief that Congress may not be the largest party on May 16 is gaining ground. In an uncertain situation there are the usual whispers of IB assessments which put Congress below 140. The political trouble shooter of a very large industrial house indicated that the present trends indicated a final tally of BJP 165 and Congress 130. Much is being made of Rahul Gandhi’s “off the record” briefing to political editors on Friday morning that he wasn’t bothered about what happens in the next 15 days but in how politics shapes up in 30 years time. There is also a buzz about Priyanka’s interview in Outlook suggesting a very close contest. Some idiotic BJP-types are taking these bush telegraph signals to heart and dreaming about sarkari appointments. I would unhesitatingly say that they are fools because if the Congress does well in Rajathan, Punjab and Haryana in the next two phases, the whole game could change.
May 2, 2009 at 10:42 PM
Raj, thanks for the clarification. KMP is trying hard to alleviate the caste perception. What I’m hearing from the ground is that irrespective of caste, people are ready to give KMP a try. Kongu region has been neglected by the major parties. Maybe people just need a breadth of fresh air. We will know in two weeks.
May 2, 2009 at 11:24 PM
Sorry I missed few candidates. I am sure these candidates will garner some votes but I dont think they will win at the end. Here is the other part of my polling.http://www.sonyvellayani.com/2009/04/lok-sabha-elections-2009-predicting.html
May 3, 2009 at 4:42 AM
Except Kanniyakumari, no other chances for BJP.
May 3, 2009 at 8:21 AM
BJP hopes to win four seats
Chennai, May 2: Will the elections to the Lok Sabha help the lotus bloom in Dravidian Tamil Nadu? The saffron party here has ‘modest’ hopes of securing at least four seats out of the 13 it is contesting. Insiders, however, say that most hopes are pinned on two heavyweights — former Union ministers: Su Thirunavukkarasar in Ramanathapuram and Pon Radhakrishnan in Kanyakumari.
The polarisation of votes appear a foregone conclusion in the communally-sensitive Kanyakumari constituency where the ruling DMK, DMDK and even CPI (M), backed by the Opposition AIADMK, have fielded Christian candidates and the caste-sensitive Ramanathapuram district would tilt the scales in favour of the BJP.
Interestingly, Mr Pon Radhakrishnan, former Union minister of state for youth affairs and sports in the Vajpayee Cabinet, has a clean image and is easily approachable.
Mr Thirunavukkarasar, former Union communication and IT minister in the NDA government, is least ostentatious unlike his political adversary Ritesh (DMK candidate) and commands good trailing in his home turf.
“If wielding money power is the only criteria to win elections, then industrialists like Ambanis, Tatas or Birlas should become prime ministers and M. A. M. Ramasamy and A. C. Muthiah could as well become chief ministers,” Mr Thirunavukkarasar said, reacting to reports that Mr Ritesh was prepared to shell out any amount to win the race. South Chennai, where BJP state president L. Ganesan is contesting, and North Chennai where the party’s state general secretary, Dr Tamilisai Soundararajan is contesting, are the other two seats the party has set its eyes on.
For the first time, the party has sent a message across that it is not dependent on the Dravidian parties to face the elections.
http://www.deccanchronicle.com/tamil-nadu/bjp-hopes-win-four-seats-074
May 3, 2009 at 10:17 AM
Mr. Narayan, Ramanathapuram is another seat for BJP.
The Fight there is clearly between BJP and AIADMK.
May 3, 2009 at 10:20 AM
North Chennai and A BJP Win?
Sorry. I Dont think so. BJP Can at the most garner about 15-18% votes in North Chennai. But, A Win from there is out of question in my view.
However, The Contours of North Chennai have changed a Bit Post Delimitation, which will Improve BJP’s Performance in terms of Votes in This Constituency
May 3, 2009 at 10:23 AM
Brijesh Bhai in seats like Pollachi, Tenkasi there may be surprises from smaller parties
May 3, 2009 at 10:31 AM
Nice analysis Mr Raj! You are originally from which state- which place- may I ask?
May 3, 2009 at 10:33 AM
Raj,
Excellent constituency-wise analysis in Tamil Nadu!
May 3, 2009 at 11:08 AM
Chennai South – DMK
in 1998, the BJP brahmin candidate with ADMK support, still lost to DMK, BJP no chance
Ramanathapuram – Thirunavukarasu will win
He is BJP candidate of Thevar caste and has a large following
Kanyakumari – BJP 35% chance
May 3, 2009 at 12:37 PM
Thank You Mr. Rajesh
I Was Born and Raised in Tirupati(AP) till class X and later We moved to Chennai and have settled There some 14 years back!!!
Mr. Subramaniam,Post Delimitation The Only Saidapet remains A DMK Stronghold and Tambaram(a christian Dominated segment) have been added to Now Dereserved SriPerumbudur Constituency.
Thatz the reason, T R Ballu, changd his constituency as DMK would probably come a distant third or may end up with fouth or even a Humiliating 5th(beside Vishnu, an Independent Candidate)
May 4, 2009 at 3:29 AM
This prediction is utter rubbish……Its joke of millennium….It says that Ela.Ganesan going to win south chennai…Ela.Ganesan itself will have a laugh at this…..
former Tiruchengodu constituency is around 350 KM away from Tirunelveli constituency….He says some part of tiruchengodu constituency now with tirunelveli……Do some homework before publishing this kind of completely biased prediction…….
Thank you.
May 4, 2009 at 8:42 AM
well muthu…
dmk-congress and vck will WIN All 39 +1 seats in TN and Pondicherry.
I have Done my Homework Well.
Radhapuram in Old Tiruchengode Constituency is now part of The New Tirunelveli Constituency
so before accusing others analyse your political knowledge first
May 4, 2009 at 9:35 AM
Five Reasons why BJP leaders are smiling.
http://epaper.dnaindia.com/bigwin.aspx?url=EpaperImages%5C04052009%5Cbjpnourn-large.jpg&eddate=5/4/2009&pageno=10&edition=9&prntid=91437&bxid=919&pgno=10
May 5, 2009 at 5:49 PM
Hi Rajesh,
Sorry, Please check once again…Tiruchengodu constituency was in namakkal district…now part of this constituency is with namakkal and remaining with Erode….For your kind information check again….I was very sure before making comment…Radhapuram is near to Tirunelveli which is 350 KM from Tiruchengodu….check it once again before accuse me….
Try to be receptive of comments and be assertive…
Anyway your work is appreciable except for some partiality in results….For example in Namakkal Constituency DMK candidate is well placed ahead ADMK candidate Vairam Tamilarasi….Some of the prediction are ok…..LIke in salem, AIADMK is surely going to win….but not BJP in south chennai
May 5, 2009 at 6:32 PM
Mr. Muthu, Arent Tiruchendur and Tiruchengode One and The same.
I Too Apologize for being Harsh on You
May 5, 2009 at 6:46 PM
@ Mr. Muthu, Well, I presumed that Tiruchendur and Tiruchengode are one and same.
Anyway, That aside : Many Pollsters arent even giving DMK the Number of Seats I have.
As Per Many Pollsters ADMK Front would Win around 35 seats.
But, in My View they would win only around 25-28.And Allies of ADMK; CPI and MDMK would be doing prety well as compared to PMK and CPI(M).
InFact, CPI(M) would be losing Madurai and Manniykumari
CPI is likely to Win atleast 2 Seats : Chennai North(Due to The Recent Developments and Karunanidhi’s Adamant stand during Lawyers strike and justification of Police Action on The Striking Lawyers in The HighCourt Premises) and Tenkasi(as ADMK is Traditionally Stronger here as compared to DMK).
In Nagapattinam as I mentioned in my Analysis, It’s Toss Up between DMK and CPI
Well, I do accept, I have a Limited Knowledge but tried my best.
South Chennai has A Strong Brahmin Population and if Brahmin Voters turn up in Large Number, BJP has a chance of giving a Good Fight in This Constituency.
As The Elections are Nearing it seems That in Ramanathapuram the contest is Primarily between Tirunavukarasar and Riteesh, as The former is said to have been eating into the Traditional ADMK Votes due to two factors — Actor Karthik, Another Thevar(Besides Tirunavukarasar Himself) Joining Hands with BJP and His Personal Charisma.
The Results in The Vanniyar Belt have to be Watched out for as Gounders Who earlier used to Vote for ADMK might this time opt for Their Own Party, Kongunadu Makkal Peravai. This might hurt PMK’s chances(A Good Thing for Both National and Regional Politics) as Gounders and Vanniyars have Strong Disliking to Each other.
In Kanniyakumari, as there is NO Clear front runner among the christian candidates, The Hindu Vote is Consolidated in this highly Polarized District.
Another factor that would help BJP here is AISMK being Part of NDA as The Hindu Nadar Votes would be Consolidated.
May 5, 2009 at 6:58 PM
I have infact given a Minimum of 5 Lok Sabha Seats : Chennai Central, Sriperambudur, Tiruvallur, Madurai and Vellore(where IUML is contesting on DMK Symbol) for DMK.
Nagapattinam,Nilgiris,Arrakkonam,Pollachhi,Thootukkudi are Toss Up between DMK and AIADMK.
Had seats such as Tanjavur were contested by DMK instead of congress, DMK would have given a tough fight to AIADMK.
In Addition, I have given a Toss up between VCK and ADMK in Villupuram. In Chidambaram ofcourse, it is a foregone conclusion(in my view) that VCK would win.
The Pondicherry seat to I have gioven to congress which is in DMK Front. The Reason is The Pondicherry Government is still Popular with the people despite change of Gaurd.
May 5, 2009 at 7:58 PM
The Kanyakumari seat in its prersent shape has th Assembly segment of Kanyakumari which was not part of the earlier Nagercoil Constituency. In this segment the BJP has never performed well earlier. This was because this was part of the Tiruchendur Constituency and all the candidates contesting were Hindu nadars there ( as Radhapuram , Nanguneri and Tiruchendur segments were all Nadar dominated areas). Now in Kanyakumari the Vellala Community has over 50000 votes and they are mostly orthodox hindus who may be less inclined to vote for candidates who are generally backed by the church. The fact that this community had to suffer the humiliation on the Uthapuram ( near Madurai) wall issue due to the Politics played by the CPM and the DMK and this will mean that they are more likely to vote for the BJP. Further Mr. C. Velayutham the Ex MLA of the BJP from Padmanabapuram is also a Vellala and he should be able to clinch their votes this time.
May 5, 2009 at 8:06 PM
I agree that there is no way that Ela Gnaesan will win. In fact he may at best damage the chances of the AIADMK candidate as most Brahmins would have otherwise voted for them. In fact the AIADMK has started a whiper champaign that Ela Ganesan who is known to be quite close to Karunanidhi is perhaps working to enabling victory for the DMK.
The BJP champaign in Chennai is quite dull and lacks any visibility except for an odd vehicle. Other parties have started door to door champaigning in a big way with simultaneous door to door at various places in the same constituency. In fact Dayanidhi Maran is topping the list with his high decibel campaigning.
May 6, 2009 at 5:54 PM
Now if BJP wants power on its own to solve the pandemic problems in the country, immediately after the elections, they have to concentrate on the states like West Bengal (42), Orissa (21), Andhra Pradesh (42), Tamil Nadu (39) & Kerala (20) to improve its tally impressively. In those 5 states BJP on its own can get not more than 10 seats out of 164 seats. If they work hard for coming 5 years it is very easy for them to get the power in Orissa on its own, where as in the rest of 4 states, they can be in a position to get 5 – 10 seats on its own & 10 – 15 seats in second position after 5 years, provided it should not tie up with any political parties in these regions. In coming 10 years they can easily get 50% of seats in these regions. And also they have to highlight the prominent persons in these regions are their leaders. They have to build the party by doing agitations against unpopular schemes & decisions taken by the ruling party. The agitation programs should be through out the year. That is very important for any rising party at the initial stage.
Another 3 states where it is facing threat from its allies are Maharastra (42), Bihar (40) & Punjab (13). Among the 3 states for BJP it is very easy to penetrate in Bihar & Punjab, where it has very good leaders to take the BJP to forward. Nitish Kumar is very dangerous to BJP. Strictly speaking he does not have mass support at all. Just because of sympathy he won the elections. In 2004 he was defeated in “Bhar” loksabha seat. And he is always trying to keep BJP in dilemma many occasions. In Punjab Sidhu & Vinodh Khanna are two prominent leaders for BJP. It has lot of scopes to improve its tally. But because of alliance with Akalidal they are unable to spread the party to all the locations. In Maharastra, Sivasena is playing double games, if situation comes. If a National party ties up with regional party, the former will always shrink. The best thing to grow is only seat sharing during elections if it is mandatory, otherwise go on its own. If BJP failed to come to power in this elections at centre, for them it is right time to grow in the above 3 states.
May 6, 2009 at 8:04 PM
hi Rajesh,
Its correct, Radhapuram was formerly with tiruchendur and now with Tirunelveli…
you are right that Ela.Ganesan will eat up ADMK votes since brahmins would like to vote for Jayalalitha (she is also a brahmin) otherwise…..
As for as Ramanathapuram is concerned, Tirunavukarasar may get overwhelming support from Pudukottai area but unlikely to get much votes from muslim dominated Ramanathapuram area……
Kanniyakumari, as you told it will be a tough fight, but for last four elections it has been won by the parties who had support of DMK….Christians knows that ADMK will support BJP after election so they may hesitate to vote for ADMK though the candidate is christian….It will be a toss up but DMK has one inch closer to victory i feel….
Namakkal….DMK candidate Gandhiselvan is stronger than ADMK rival…most importantly DMDK eating up most of the votes from ADMK bases as it was evident from last results….Just go through the last assembly election results….IN namakkal assembly constituency DMDK got around 25 thousand votes and that was grabbed from ADMK basin….
One more important point here based on previous parlimentary elections is that Tamilnadu people tend to vote with national politics in mind….this is an advantage point for DMK front……ADMK did not announce prime ministrial candidate yet….
Ofcourse Srilankan issue will have a damaging effort for DMK front but this negative votes not likely to go for ADMK since they have an option of DMDK……
one rupee rice got support from poor people in villages but we have to wait and see whether it will be converted into vote or not……
I have other idea regarding north chennai constituency where DMK have vote base……and CPI will not be able to fight with its money power…..In final stage DMK may play with currency that will work in this contituency since it has Urban Slum…those people will vote for money rather than developmental issues…..
One major advantage to DMK is that people who are literate and talk about national development with wide-mouth never come out to vote due to hot whether…..They always like to sit before Television to watch the share market position, News, Mega serials and movies…..
Overall your prediction is close to reality but i reckon that ADMK may get 23 to 25 seats but PMK may find difficult to win more than 2 seats….CPI – 2, CPM – 1, MDMK – 2, ADMK – 15-18 seats……
ADMK given off the seats to alliance where it likely to loose…example is Madurai…..
we have to wait till may 16….let us wait….meanwhile we can have healthy arguments…
May i know about your native place?
thank you
May 6, 2009 at 9:33 PM
Muthu,
I think you miss understand the Brahmin sentiment. The Brahmins are no great admirers of Jaya and only vote for her to defeat the DMK. In fact one of the reasons for the performance of Ela Ganesan not likely to be better than ordinary is the fact that Brahmins may not vote for him in full force and the vote is likely to be split with around 50% feeling that the only way to see the exit of the DMK is to vote for the AIADMK.
You have also not taken note of the fact that Kanyakumari assembly segment being part of the Tiruchendur Constituency and being part of the new Kanyakumari Lok Sabha Consituency are quite different. The Uthapuram wall incidents have left a deep scar in the minds of the upper caste Pillaimars (Vellalas) with antogonism both to the CPM and the DMK. This will surely have an impact in the reshaped constituency as they may have to vote and contend with another major power centre in the form of the Church.
May 7, 2009 at 5:05 AM
A good effort to analyze. I’m surprised to see our consitutency Namakkal is mentioned as Vanniayar Belt. You took it wrong. The total vanniayar population in Namakkal would be 0-1% at max. Namakkal is comprised 35-40% of Kongu Vellala Gounders not vanniyars. The other 35% comprised with Dalits. 20% includes others including vanniars. This is ADMK belt always. Namakkal is no Vanniar belt.
May 7, 2009 at 9:09 AM
Mr. Muthu, Thanks for Your Corrections and Observations.
A I stated, Mine was A Rough Prediction.
DMK might still hold on but,in many of DMK strongholds, it’s congress that is contesting this time.
while DMK would still be able to close gap between itself and it’s Rival, congres in my view would Draw A Blank in TN.
The Lankan Tamil Issue would affect congress more than DMK or VCK.
In Kanniyakumari, It is CPM which is contesting And NOT ADMK.
Therefore, there is Every Possibility of Christian Votes being Split between DMK and ADMK as CPM Would NOT Support BJP
May 7, 2009 at 9:14 AM
Mr. Giri, as I mentioned I am basically from AP and could give A Rough Analysis of TN based on my Stay in Chennai for about 10 years.
Namakkal is Near to The Northern TN Zone and Presumed it to be in The Vanniyar Belt.
I asm sorry for The same.
May 7, 2009 at 9:18 AM
Mr. Muthu, You mentioned Namakkal as A Seat with 35% Gounders and That it is Traditionally ADMK Stronghold.
Gounders who would otherwise Vote with ADMK might this time vote for KMP(KonguNadu Makkal Peravai). If Gounders Vote Enmasse to KMP, then, It would either spring A Surprise or Might Prop up A DMK Win(as You have been Asserting!!!)
May 7, 2009 at 10:58 AM
Mr. Muthu, I would Personally LOVE to see PMK losing All The Seats it got.
PMK is Certain to Lose Chidambaram(SC), Sriperambudu and The Lone Seat of Puducherry.
Tough Fight may be on Cards in Kallakuruchi and Arakonam
May 7, 2009 at 11:23 AM
The Real Threat to ADMK is from KMP in The KonguNadu Region.If Gounders Desert Amma EnMasse and Vote for KMP, then Jaya may end up with just around 10-12 Lok Sabha Seats.
May 7, 2009 at 11:50 AM
and Hey Tamilian, you are probably a Tamilian from some lala land.
In Madurai Meenakshi Temple : It is Clearly Written , People of Other Religions NOT Allowed.
The same in Several Other Temples.
Foreigners who Visit Hindu Temples need Prior Written Permission from The Official.
Had Destruction of Present Allignment of Ramar Sethu is An Issue for The People of Ramanathapuram, then there should be A DMK Wave as in the 1967 Election.
The Abscence of DMK Wave Proves That People of TamilNadu are NOT Anti Hindu
May 7, 2009 at 11:51 AM
Even Anti Brahminism is NOT Visible in TamilNadu.
And The Intercaste Conflicts are All Between OBC communities and Dalits and NEVER Involve Brahmins
May 7, 2009 at 11:59 AM
DMK Might Win in Arrakkonam against PMK as Katpadi,Ranipet and Arcot which have Considerable Muslim Population might Vote for DMK. Arrakkonam being SC Reserved too might Vote for DMK.
Therefore, PMK has Chance only in Tiruvannamalai, Dharmapuri and Kallakuruchi.
If DMDK Surprises PMK at Either Kallakuruchi or Tiruvannamalai or Even Better Both, PMK would get just 1 MP seat, that of Dharmapuri!!!!!!!!!!
May 7, 2009 at 9:32 PM
Raj,
Krish Srikanth- ex opening batsman is a Brahmin and a member of BJP. Would he have had a better chance of winning from South Chennai?
May 7, 2009 at 11:11 PM
Hi Raj,
Either way a good analysis. The vanniyar belt ends in Salem. Actually Namakkal is in western tamilnadu which is a Kongu vellala gounders dominant area. The Kongu belt starts from Namakkal, goes through Erode, Tiruppur, Coimbatore, Pollachi, and Karur. Though Nilgris and Dindigul are away from Kongu belt, after delimitation in both Nilgiris and Dindigul are 30% dominated by Kongu vellala gounders. Parts of new Salem and Kallakurichi constituencies are also dominated by Kongu vellala gounders.
May 8, 2009 at 7:48 AM
Thank You for giving The Demographics of Kongu Vellala Gounders Mr. Giri.
And Mr.Manmath, Yes, Krishnamachari Srikanth would Not Only have galvanized The Brahmin Votes but through His Wit and Sarcastic Humour would have Attracted The Youth. Being SportaMna He would NOT have lost Momentum and would have fuelled in A Lot of Energy.
on This Forum and also at LKADVANI.IN, I have suggested The Name of Krishnamachari Srikanth for Chennai South.
Being A Popular Cricketer, He would have Reached Beyond a Particular Community, Particularly amongst Youth
May 8, 2009 at 11:01 AM
BJP needs to work hard to win the Kanyakumari seat…Ground situation is getting changed as CPM candidate may get most of the christian votes especially the area close to Kerala. Srilankan tamil sympathy is helping the ADMK Alliance even though parties like ADMK,PMK or CPM didn’t even open their mouth before the elections for Srilankan tamilians. It is Vaiko who stood with the Tamilians and PMK was part of the UPA government for the last 5 years…Now Ramdoss is catching his votes on Srilankan tamil issue.
May 8, 2009 at 5:07 PM
Is PC certain to lose this time? What about Mani Shankar Aiyar?
May 8, 2009 at 11:21 PM
Congress is going to loose all the seats which is pretty certain.
May 8, 2009 at 11:44 PM
So- is BJP still ahead in Chennai South?
May 8, 2009 at 11:47 PM
And Srikanth is in South Africa- has he even campaigned for BJP at least once in South Chennai?
May 9, 2009 at 10:17 AM
Mr. Manmath, it seems BJP is NOT Ahead in Chennai South Parliamentary Constituency.
Mr. Raghu, Mayiladuthurai, from where Mani Shankar Aiyyar is contesting again falls in The Vanniyar Belt and as PMK is in the opposite camp he is bound to lose.
In Addition, he is dead against LTTE as he licks the feet of nehry die-nasty.
he would certainly lose and may come third besides DMDK candidate.
PC has Long Lost the elections. He is just waiting to see by how many votes he would lose. And whether he would come second or third in Siva Ganga Parliamentary Constituency.
May 9, 2009 at 6:23 PM
Mr Raj- kindly call me “Dear Manmath” as I am only 20 years old- and not Mr Manmath! Well-has Srikanth campaigned?
May 9, 2009 at 7:11 PM
Dear Manmath, I havent Heard of Srikanth oflate.
He is still in BJP but, isnt Active.
May 10, 2009 at 11:18 AM
Purely onesided predict. Everyone can notice it if you just have a look at Tanjore Seat where DMK is leading but the report says that Congress is contesting in this constituency.
May 10, 2009 at 11:24 AM
sriram, get your facts right.
I checked for the constituencies where DMK is contesting and from where congress is.
DMK has Foolishly left Tanjore to congress.
In Tanjore, being Home District of Karunanidhi, DMK is supposedly strong. But, it has given this seat to it’s ally congress.
it sounds one sided for you because, I have Not given any seats to italian’s party.
May 10, 2009 at 12:10 PM
Is anti incumbency really present in TN agaonst the DMK?
I could hear from a leading english news channel which said that there is massive anti incumbency against DMK . But a leading english newspaper’s analysis says that there is no anti incumbency wave . But the two have said one thing in common,the AIADMK front has the advantage in terms of no. of seats
May 10, 2009 at 3:45 PM
Dear Raj,
I suggest you to dobule check to avoid false informations. Tanjore being my native, I know very much that the Union Minister of State for Finance S.S.Palanimanickam, is contesting from this constitutency for the 3rd consequtive time.
May 10, 2009 at 3:53 PM
TREND AS ON TODAY IN TAMILNADU.
DMK ALLIANCE 18 Seats
DMK 10
CONGRESS 06
DP 01
MUSLIM LEGUE 01
ADMK ALLIANCE 22 Seats
AIADMK 14
PMK 03
MDMK 02
CPI 02
CPM 01
DMK
Madurai M.K.Azhagiri (Cake Walk)
Central Madras Dayanithi Maran
Tanjore S.S.Palani Manickam
Karur K.C.Palanisamy
Nilagiri A.Raasa
Arakkonam Jegathratchagan (Tough Fight)
South Madras R.S.Bharathi (BJP spoils ADMK Chances)
RaamanathapuramJ.K.Rithish (BJP Spoils ADMK Chances)
Kallakurichi Aadhi Shankar (DMDK Spoils PMK Chances)
Kanyakumari Helan Davidson (BJP Spoils CPM Chances)
CONGRESS
Pondicherry Naarayanasami (Cake Walk)
Sivagangai P.Chidambaram
Theni Aarun
Dindukal N.S.V.Sithan
Thenkaasi Vellaipaandiyan
Thiunelveli Raama Subbu (Sarath’s party spoils ADMK Chance)
DP
Chidambaram Thirumavalavan
MUSLIM LEAGUE
Velore Abdul Rehmaan
AIADMK
Kaanchipuram Raamakrishnan
Naamakkal Vairam Thamizharsi
Thirvuallur Venugopal
Thirupur Sivasami
Vizhuppuram M.Aanathan
Aarani Subramanian
Perambalur K.K.Balasubramanian
Pollachi Sugumar
Selam Semmalai
Kadalur Sampath
Tuticorin Sindhya Paandiyan (Tough Fight because of split of votes by Sharath’s Party)
Trichy Kumar (Tough Fight)
Krishagiri Nanje Gowdu (Tough Fight still left helps ADMK)
Mayiladuthurai O.S.Manian (Muslim Party spoils Congress Chances)
PMK
ThiruvannamalaiJ.Guru
Dharmapuri Senthil
Sriperumbudur A.K.Moorthy (Tough Fight)
MDMK
Virudunagar Vaiko
Erode Ganesamoorthy
CPI
Naagapaatinam M.Selvaraaj
North Madras Tha.Pandiyan (Tough Fight)
CPM
Coimbatore P.R.Natarajan
May 10, 2009 at 4:55 PM
Sriram
Not observing TN closely this year though it looks like your predictions are very sound.Pollsters are making a big mistake in predicting TN sweep for Jaya led alliance.Its more like 1999 verdict
1.Only suprise is that Theni being predicted for Congress.Even during the height of ant–Jaya wave that swept TN in 2004 ,Haroon managed to scrape through by less than 21000 votes largely due to the huge lead in Kodaikanal.I am little sceptical if he can repeat the trick as thats Theni belt is usually an impreganable ADMK bastion during a normal election
2.After delimitation Thanjavur has Mannargudi segment under it.Here CPI is solid and could give a huge lead to ADMK alliance
Any thoughts
May 10, 2009 at 5:17 PM
Hi Prasanna
As you rightly said, Theni had always been in favour of ADMK as still MGR loyalties are much there. But Haroon may have an edge this time too though the margin may be little as money is likely to play a major role here since Haroon is a Richest candidate and offcourse, Azhagiri is also taking this victory as a Prestigious challange.
With regard to Tanjore, if AIADMK would have contested, probably the fight would have been tough whereas MDMK is not a very active there after L.Ganesan left the party.
May 10, 2009 at 5:36 PM
hello, you must eb a Die Hard sonia-raul fanatic.
congress is Losing All of those seats you mentioned.
DMK is likely to lose half the seats you have listed.
18 for congress-dmk combine is like day dreaming even for stalin and kanimozhi along with karunanidhi and chidambaram
May 10, 2009 at 5:39 PM
NON Sense.
Kanniyakumari and Helen winning.
Bullshit
CPM candidate is A Chriastian therefore it is christian votes that are going to be Split while BJP votes are All intact.
even if She does A Cabret dance , helen would NOT be winning from Kanniyakumari
and atleast post with a christian name revealing your true identity.
and why Only 18 seats for dmk alliance, pray to your christ and he will give you all 40 seats.
May 10, 2009 at 5:44 PM
Ramanathapuram and DMK are you dreaming?
People are throwing slippers at ritesh
his hallelujahs are not saving garunaniti.
garunaniti, ganimoli are all going to commit suicide on may 16th
you garunaniti is already worshipping christ and is calling paul di nakaran to pray for votes.
you coward dmk goons are going to die a Natural Death on may 16th 2009.
the christian lobby will lose All significance post may 16th 2009.
post with a christian name revealing your true identity you tevidiya paiyyan
May 10, 2009 at 5:53 PM
and the one christian tevidiya nayi posting with A Hindu Name, yours is the most silliest and Intellectually BANRUPT Analysis.
even if you sonia dancesz naked to reveal her white trash, people will NOT Vote for her.
and karunanidhi of Dirty Minority Kalagam is stinking like shit that has NOT been flushed and on May 13th Voters are going to Flush that dump down the gutters and it would reach it’s Destination on may 16th and all you christgian lowlives will cry “yesuve, tevidiya yesuva, eduku, christian oda kayi vittal” go and hide beside your naked hanging man’s cross, you dirty minority kalagam shit eating lowlife
May 10, 2009 at 6:41 PM
It is very pitty that you are not able to diagnose others view and abuse them for not having the same opinion that you have. Neither your opinion nor my opinion is going to have any impact on the actual result that we are going to get on 16th and it is just an arithmetic based on I had given my view. Infact, personally I would be more happy if the DMK alliance loses all 40 seats, but ground reality is that the freebies with their money and nonethics unethical electional formula will ensure their marginal victory, whether one like it or not. Please don’t abuse others simply, if you are not a politician.
May 10, 2009 at 7:05 PM
Mr. SriRam, even with Money Power DMK might WIN but NOT Congress.
Personally I would be More Happy if DMK and ADMK end with more or less the same seats.
I might be Wrong in Arrokkonnam, where DMK is likely to Win and in Namakkal as Mr. Muthu has Pointed out.
In Perambulur too, DMK might Win and also in Nagapattinam DMK is likely to upset CPI, since Nagapatinam has Considerable Christian Population, Particularly Among The Fishermen Community who are trusted Voters of DMK and have voted with DMK except in 2006 Assembly Elections when They voted with ADMK.Pollachi is another seat that has to be watched out for.
while, in My Analysis I have given only 5-7 seats for DMK, now the figure I give is around 10-12
I agree with You that PMK would Win only About 3 seats but certainly NOT Sriperumbudur.
PMK is likely to Win in Dharmapuri, Kallakuruchi and Tiruvannamalai.
In SriPerambudur, T R Baalu is A Strong Candidate.
Nilgiris is A Tough Fight. KMP is likely to Damage The Chances of ADMK Combine in KonguNadu.
True, in Ramanathapuram ADMK is likely to come third but, Ritesh Cant Overcome The Personal Charisma of Tirunavukarasar.
Even as Independent, He can Win an Election. Infact in Ramanathapuram it is like Tirunavukarasar contesting as An Independent and The Symbol Allotted to Him is “Lotus”
The Freebies offered and 1 Ruppee Rice Scheme will certainly come in Handy to DMK but NOT to it’ ally congress.
May 10, 2009 at 7:08 PM
You are Right Tiru SriRam that DMK might Win more, this is Possible if and Only if, KMP succeeds in Creating A Gounder Votebase and atleast 60-70% of Gounders vote for KMP Candidates. Since, Gounders ae traditionally ADMK supporters, KMP is likely to Damage ADMK’s Prospects in North-Western TamilNadu
May 10, 2009 at 7:09 PM
but, congress Winning even a Single Seat in TN is A Day Dream.
Saving grace for Congress would be even if they save Deposit
May 10, 2009 at 8:23 PM
Hi Raj,
Your prediction on TRS is quite true. They attended rally in Punjab..
May 10, 2009 at 8:53 PM
And AWN, MDMK Will Be The Next to Join NDA
May 11, 2009 at 9:13 AM
I would be happy if the numbers predicted by Sriram turnsout true..
Or else ,COngress will lure Jayalalitha that they will withdraw support for DMK,SO in turn Jaya shldnt support NDA..But if this is the number.COngress will not have any chance of doing that….
May 11, 2009 at 10:30 AM
Santesh NO Way congress will win 6 Seats.
I personally Wish We DONT Require either of these two kazhagams.
both DMK and AIADMK should be Though A Fitting Lesson.
Congress Without Doubt will Draw A Blank while DMK might Win about 9-11 Seats while ADMK too ends up between 12-14.
Jayalalithaa is A Pain.
May 11, 2009 at 5:23 PM
Battle between MDMK(Pro Eelam) vs Congress(Ani Eelam
May 12, 2009 at 11:29 PM
Kongunadu Munnetra Peravai may turn out to be dark horse to win coimbatore and Pollachi going by the trend. Even though it is caste based party , they are projecting Kongu region development. Even if they emerge as runner up in LS Poll in Kongu region, it can change the TN politics for ever.
Already PMK is taken over North , if KMP takes over west …
it will be interesting in upcoming(if AIADMK wins ) TN assembly election
May 13, 2009 at 6:49 AM
Nice Observation Selva.
Many Pollsters are Rubbishing Them of.
However, I Feel, Coimbatore is Hard for KMP since communists are strong in Coimbatore.
KMP in my view has good chance in Pollachi and Tirupur and can turn the tables in Namakkal watering down the hopes of AIADMK as Gounders are Traditionally supporters of ADMK.
I head Gounders are Huge in Population(constitute about 30-35% in Constituencies like Dharmapuri,Krishnagiri,Namakkal,Tirupur,Coimbatore and Pollachhi)
I Personally Wish Post Elections, MDMK-KMP-BJP-AISMK-NMK-JD(U)-Puthiya Tamizhagam form A Front in TN.
May 13, 2009 at 2:45 PM
Today in a TV interview Vijaykanth made a statement wherein he said that he is expecting to sweep all the 40 seats. This is perhaps the hight of optimism. Similarly all and sundry have their personal wishes as their belief and therby distorting or clouding a rational view. The situation in TN is now very favourable for Jayalalitha and her alliance. There is a pronounced anti DMK feeling around. Initially this was mostly against the Congress for their inaction on the Lankan issue but it has snowballed into a anti DMK situation. Now the AIADMK is in the best position to garner this vote but it is now certain the anti DMK vote will be split with AIADMK garnering a major chunk the DMDK getting the next major share. In individual seats like for instance Pollachi this may favour parties like the KMP and in Tenkasi the PT. The BJP is likely to benefit in Ramanathaputram and also in Kanyakumari.
In the ulitmate analysis the DMK may not get a complete drubbing only because of the split vote but still the AIADMK alliance is likely to have a Lions share of the seats.
May 13, 2009 at 2:55 PM
Hi,
Uneducated Girls,Age between 18 to 24 are casting votes to Vijaykant in South Chennai. I am doing job in South Chennai(L Ganeshan).
May 13, 2009 at 2:57 PM
Hi,
TRS has joined NDA because he can not win single seat(hardly one or two) in AP.
May 13, 2009 at 11:52 PM
Pollsters are giving zero to BJP in Tamil Nadu- NDTV has given zero to BJP in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu- and only 2 to TRS in Andhra Pradesh. It is giving 29 to Congress in Andhra- and 1 to PRP.
What is going on?
NDTV has given 20 to DMK-Congress in Tamil Nadu- while Star News has given 25!
May 14, 2009 at 5:59 AM
However-some other pollsters like Zee News I think have BJP 1 seat in Tamil Nadu- and that is Kanyakumari. Even on NDTV during the exit poll which predicted a blank for the BJP- N Ram of The Hindu did say that BJP may win Kanyakumari.
But what about Andhra Pradesh?
May 14, 2009 at 9:08 AM
Dear Manmath, NDTV is NEVER DELIVER TRUE VERSION and now in the exit polls they are trying to save their opinionated polls.
Tell me one election, where they have come close to the Exact polls.
TRS being given 2 seats in The Most cruel Joke ever played by NDTV.
Reason: TRS Decided to join NDA.
They want JD(U) to come out of NDA before The Poll Results are out.
May 14, 2009 at 9:28 AM
Hi,
Congress has paid money to TV chnanels up to 16 May 2009. Till then channels will support Congress so that congress may fetch more allies.
May 15, 2009 at 7:35 AM
NDTV is the organ of the Communists. NDTV boss Radhika Roy- wife of NDTV Chairman Prannoy Roy and Brinda Karat are blood sisters.
NDTV is wrong in Tamil Nadu- because it gives BJP 0-while BJP is clearly winning Kanyakumari.
May 15, 2009 at 9:16 AM
Dear Manmath, as Per some sources, Ramanathapuram too.
May 15, 2009 at 12:15 PM
Apparently, DMK has resorted to mass rigging in TN. About 10% of votes were polled in the last hour or so. Observers are now predicting a clean sweep for UPA. Deplorable, if this is true! TN is slowly becoming of Bihar of India.
May 15, 2009 at 8:33 PM
All your predictions seems to be good except for Coimbatore, Tiruppur and Pollachi. i guess you have underestimated KonguNadu Munnetra paravai (KNMP). Though your predicitions can be partially accepted on tiruppur. However, i fear that you have gone completely off the reality track in Covai and Pollachi. Big surprise awaiting in these 2 places:)
May 15, 2009 at 8:45 PM
Mr. Saravanan, I didnt give much to New Parties.
I feel that in Pollachhi and Tirupur, KonguNadu Munnetra Peravai would Win. I have discussed with my compatriots from TamilNadu and one of them is from Tirupur.
He said, if Gounders Vote enmasse to KMP, Then KMP would Win Pollachhi, Tiurpur and may be coimbatore too.
And also can Damage The Prospects of ADMK at Karur,Namakkal,Salem.
Has to be seen.
May 15, 2009 at 8:45 PM
As Gounders Are ADMK Loyalists Traditionally.
May 15, 2009 at 10:26 PM
Saravanan, you sound very optimistic. You must be a KMP supporter. According to Vikatan, ADMK will get Pollachi and the Communists will get Coimbatore.
May 16, 2009 at 10:09 AM
The results are out now. Where is the BJP in Naagarkovil and Ramanathapuram? When the strong party like ADMK is not able to face the DMK & CONG unethical Election Formula where was the question of BJP winning these seats. Atleast ADMK alliance would have done better in these constitutency if BJP would have not contested.
Indirectly, all these parties (BJP & DMDK) have helped Karunanithi to defeat Jayalalitha.
May 16, 2009 at 10:17 AM
I Apologize Guys
India is Doomed and Doomed for Ever
BJP Can Never again form Govt.
and India’s Demographics would be Changed for Ever
May 16, 2009 at 10:32 AM
When a guy like RITHISH wins, everyone should understand what actually the people care about.
May 16, 2009 at 11:24 AM
Let’s Drop A Tear for The Nation
May 16, 2009 at 11:28 AM
well SriRam, so Money alone and Rigging with The Aid of Influential Oficials is what matters.
Be prepared for Breakdown of India and change of Demographies.
Paul Dinakaran has Pumped Huge amount to DMK Coffers to Get Sri Ram Sethu Destroyed
May 16, 2009 at 3:25 PM
Today results have come.
No neutral citizen in TN considers the results in TN as surprise.
The pathos is the predictions are appearing to be absurd and rubbish for a neutral citize.
A person with common sense could not have predicted that BJP will win even a single seat in TN. BUT MANY ‘POLITICAL ANALYSTS’ HAVE PREDICTED!
Again it is foolish to have expected that there is wave in favour of Jayalalithaa!
-No state govt. staff would dare to vote for ADMK along with their family members, considering stripping of jobs from lakhs of employees in one go.
-No person having any religeous sentiment would accept ADMK’s stand on religeous issues, considering anti-conversion law.
-No person with some sympathy for Srilankan Tamils would accept Ms.Jayalalithaa’s switching over of her stand on this issue on the eve of the election consideing the claim of Ms Jayalalithaa that there is threat for the life of her own self by Srilankan fighters.
Only those who are insensitive or ignorant of the above & similar issues only could have voted for ADMK
Despite these if somebody has predicted that there is Jayalalitha wave, that person must be having some monetary benefit. Press people are expected to be honest and neutral in educating people.
Will the media people (including bloggers)agree to do the work with dignity hereafter atleast?
a neutral citizen
May 16, 2009 at 4:53 PM
In this State, someone who crticise and attacks Hindu’s sentiments (alone), becomes Secular Leader.
Similarly, someone who supports DMK (alone). becomes neutral citizen.
Good definations. Keep it up.
May 16, 2009 at 5:38 PM
Mr Raj,
We have discussed already……i predicted 30 to 10 in favour of DMK that is what happened……You dont consider the comment of people who are sitting and chatting in internet…….Go to field and see how one rupee rice scheme reached people….because they only know the value of the rice….we people will sit in A/C room, chat and go for restraunt to eat and we never go to vote in summer fearing of hot weather……but they know the value of rice for one rupee and they vote….even one cannot dream about it…
This is the clear verdict for Jayalalith’s double stand and BJP’s communal politics……BJP is talking about Terrorism with wide mouth….But they are the only one reason for these bomb blast….Before Babar Masjid incident terrorism was restricted inside the kashmir valley….but BJP brought it to entire India…..All Muslims felt unsafe and started supporting Terrorist there after….Now tell….who is reponsible for terrorism in india……
May 16, 2009 at 6:00 PM
Mr. Muthu, A Month back,Arcot N Veersamy, Power Minister in TN stated that DMK front would lose.
Till 4 PM, The Voting percentage was 48%, and within an hour it increased to 72%
if A Person like Ritesh can Win against Thirunavukkarasar
We All know what Played The Trick.
May 16, 2009 at 6:02 PM
Mr. Muthu, That is your misconception that Before Babri Masjid Demolition Terrorism was confined to Kashmir Valley.
And even if your words are taken, should we bow down to Evil Jehadis and surrender to Them?
is That Secularism?
communal politics are played by the socalled secularists.
Tax exemption for minorities is next on cards.
clearly stating — convert or bear the humiliation of paying taxes while those earning the same would be tax free if they belong to minority community
May 16, 2009 at 6:03 PM
Your Post speaks the language of cowards
May 16, 2009 at 6:07 PM
well said Mr. SriRam
May 16, 2009 at 8:12 PM
E.C Announces P.CHIDMABARAM as the Winner whereas he was trailing till the last round.
Similary, in Viudunagar, the total number of votes counted have exceeded than the actual number of votes recorded on 13th.
Sofar, we knew only that they were distributing money for the voters. Now, when Sonia & Karunanithi can manipulate even the election results with the help of Navin Chawla, , why should the public come and cast their vote?
Why should they waste the public money and time. Let them declare that they have won all the constitutencies.
Then we will not even discuss about it.
May 16, 2009 at 8:41 PM
I am very sure TN results are quite surprising…It is matter of money and support of the media groups. One thing worked against ADMK was she acted so opportunistic at the last minute. Rather than aligning with BJP ,she aligned with PMK (who was with UPA till January 2009) and CPM/CPI (Complete Liability especially among educted voters).
May 16, 2009 at 10:31 PM
Mr. Sriram, anything can happen, but what agonizes me is this is going to remian so for a long term.
Evangelization of India has Started and expect A Minority filled Cabinet
May 17, 2009 at 12:34 AM
‘Neutral citizen’ has been so open and pointed out the situation in TN very well. TN People are not foolish enough to receive money & loyally vote (which is done in secret way) for the payer. If money was distributed, it is not for voters, but was for media.
Jaya did not join with BJP…. perhaps the only sensible decision by her. She has reallised well that BJP will spoil the serenity of the state. Naveen Patnaik learnt this lesson in his last tenure, whereas Jaya understood this about 5years back. Every Indian is beginning to understand the danger of violence against minorities (on the basis of creed, language, caste etc) is doom to a country- as happens in Srilanka.
About number of votes polled…
Total number of votes polled in a polling station is finallised on the basis of manual counting by the polling officer of the booth and agents. Human error can creep in in this exercise. Let us not ridicule the honesty of election officers on the basis of manual error in counting.
Glad that BJP has conceeded defeat, sad that internet users don’t!
Zarina
May 17, 2009 at 1:20 AM
yes, zarina, everybody knows it is Money and Muscle which has won.
now, it’s time for you jehadis to enjoy.
The Worst Day for Nationalists and A Good day for Jehadis.
I can see, that porkisthan and sullah terrorists are extremely Happy with the win of muscle and money power and subjugation of Democracy in Inda
May 17, 2009 at 9:35 AM
Let’s not discuss further about this election and let’s accept the verdict given by the majority of the people After-all, the majority of the people have endorsed many things that the ruling governments both at the state and the centre have done in the past few year.
Let’s see some of the secret of success of these governments which the people have endorsed :-
a) Endorsed the soft corner of the Congress towards the Terrorism for the sake of the vote bank from a group of people.
b) Endorsed the misuse of the most of the prestigious beaurocrats & independent institutes CBI, Election Commission and even the President for their personal and party benefits for the case like Quatrochi. Infact, now CBI is renamed as Congress Bureau of Investigation
c) Endorsed the abusing on the Hindus Sentiments in the issues like Ram Sethu just to bag the other community votes (Afterall these politicians know that the majority of the Hindus in this country never objects even if someone seize their rights, as they prefer peace of the country)
d) Endorsed the fulfilment of demands made by the most corrupted and criminals someone like Sibu Soren, just to retain their power
e) Endorsed the courage of showing crores money in front of the media in the parliament itself, by which the they bought the MPs from other parties overnight to win the vote of confidence.
f) Endorsed the kingdom of this country by a single family irrespective of the leader’s nationality
g) Endorsed the leaders and ministers care, vision & forecast for the next generation “of their own family”
h) Endorsed the inflation due to their wrong economic policies
i) Endorsed the sale petroleum products on the much higher side even if the international market gives it in the much lower price
j) Endorsed the unemployment because of the lack of forecast
k) Endorsed the ministers and leader’s savings in the Swiss Bank
l) Endorsed the electricity failure because of the lack knowledge of the minister
m) Endorsed their special concentration on promoting liquor sales
n) Endorsed the smuggling of sand by the MLAs and Ministers
o) Endorsed the CM’s failure in protecting the rights of his own state in the issues like Hokkenakal, Mullai Periyar, Cauvery and Palaru just to retain his power in the state
p) Endorsed the death of 3 innocents worked in the press office, just because of the rift within the CM’s family
q) Endorsed his brilliancy in closing the whole episode of the country’s biggest corruption allegation “spectrum” overnight just by reuniting his family
And there are many more… but the last but not least…
r) The TN people have endorsed the sincere and dedicated work of the CM towards making the people as “top most beggars” of the country by giving money for votes (from the corrupted funds) and by distributing freebies from the public’s funds, so that the people looses their common sense and they don’t think or question about any of the above .
May 17, 2009 at 1:56 PM
Raj I am surprised about your comments!
Jehadis too are patriots, friend!
A nationlist has a small difference in meaning. Jehadis may not be nationalists but certainly are patriots
Zarina
May 18, 2009 at 8:45 PM
Mr Muthu- what a coward you are!
Blaming even terrorism on the BJP!
If you dont know – there were 37 temples demolished in Kashmir- before Babri demolition- so Muslims are responsible for Babri demolition.
If Babri demolition is the cause of terrorism- greivence for Muslims- then Hindus have following greivences-
1- Demolition of 37 temples in Kashmir before 6 Dec 1992- and 160 after that
2- 1993 bomb blasts killed 257 Hindus in Mumbai- done by Muslims
3- Bomb blasts by Muslims killing hundreds of Hindus throughout India
4- Brutal roasting of 59 Hindus in Godhra- by Muslims
5-1000 years of Muslim oppression against Hindus
By your logic- Babri demolition is responsible for terrorism. Then by that logic- Muslims are responsible for Babri demolition. And in any case- Babri demolition was done not by BJP but by P V Narasimha Rao.
May 18, 2009 at 10:54 PM
Hey Rajesh, Mr. Muthu is atleast way Better than someone posting as wellwisher who is a wellwisher fot Terrorists and Anti Nationals.
May 19, 2009 at 9:55 PM
Hi Rajesh!
You have presented a long list of ‘attrocities’ by Muslims in Kashmir etc. But you could have published the source for the informations.
Of course Godhra incidence is a publicised one, but anyone, if not insane will understand, it is impossible to torch a running train from outside. But Modi and BJP can’t understand that!
After every violent rioting agaist Muslims it is a regular practice for BJP, Bajrang Dal etc to assign some reason or other for the rioting. But if you closely look at all the riots have one motive- stealing the Muslims!
By stealing prosperity can’t be achieved. So next riot- or attempt- to become prosperous.
Well, your 5th point ’1000 years of Muslim oppression against Hindus’- the fact is 10000yrs of oppression and suppression of lower caste people resulted in people looking for new leadership… foreigners were welcomed by the oppressed section 1000y back
Zarina
May 20, 2009 at 12:24 AM
Stop your nonesense zarina.
Bullshit, FForeigners were NOT Welcomed By The socalled oppressed classes.
teach your nonsense in madarsas
Not on Blogs.
May 20, 2009 at 10:27 PM
Hi Raj!
You are a funny person!
Which area are you from?
Do you have many people like you in your locality?
REMEMBER,
NO RULER CAN RULE THE COUNTRY WITHOUT THE SUPPORT OF THE LOCAL PEOPLE.
Zarina
May 21, 2009 at 11:28 AM
zarina, that is applicable to those who are Democratic not to muzzies who rule through atrocities and a reign of terror
May 23, 2009 at 9:23 PM
Raj, do you know history?
When muslims came to india, do you think they toppled democratically elected governments and introduced monarchy?
Don’t you know monarchy was the only form of government- whether Hindu king or Muslim sulthan- in those days?
Democracy was an unknown concept for Indians in those days.
Only the British introduced this type of government.
Whatever be the type of government, as Zarina says, people’s acceptance is needed. Terrorrism exists in democracy (as in Srilanka), monarchy (as happened in Nepal, till recently), dictatorship (as happens in Myanmar)…etc etc
Unless the ruler is a philosopher and unless the people of the country reject violence- terrorism can’t be avoided.
Neutral Citizen
May 24, 2009 at 10:44 AM
Neutral Citizen, are you Church Educated?
Guys like you would even deny India ever existed before 1947.
go and give all the credit to Barbarians while belittling ourselves.
They were NOT Monarchs, They were Republics.
No King could rule With Public Anger and Against the will of The People.
But, once muslim invaders gained athourity they didnt mind in killing the rebellious Public and enforced athouritative means to suppress the people’s voice and monarchs started to emerge from then on.
Know The History of India instead of Parrotting what is thought to you in churches and madarsas and by marxists.
May 24, 2009 at 4:41 PM
@Sriram and Raj,
Completely Agree with you guys…
Hey Muthu, R u a DMK supporter… On whose money he is giving 1Rs rice.. Its we work in front of computers so called AC condition, tax only being used… By providing a 1kg rice and colour TV, He (Karunanithi) is making the coming generation as lazy peoples and illiterate.. Nothing had done for the development of Tamilnadu… Additional bit of infornmation DMK team going to supply Sun DTH for all the peoples around 2010 to impress peoples to get vote in upcoming state election.. In the History of Politics, BMK is the first to introduce money for vote, capturing the booth, etc and now they teach Congress how to malpractise the election…
June 1, 2009 at 1:13 PM
Hi Raj,
What’s wrong with you! Always steering discussion to religeous classification of people!
You think majority of indians are Church educated/ Madarasa educated/ Marxists’ educated.
Where are you educated… I wonder.
Do you think, people should read only the history written by RSS/ BJP?
Try to understand the real history, gentleman. If majority begin to think you are right, India will break into pieces. Many neutral citizens belonging to the largest religion (in number) do not endorse your (or BJP’s) opinion. That’s why occurred the debacle of BJP.
India need not be a super-power in oppression or suppression; but be a humble country which reders justice for everyone.
Neutral Citizen
June 1, 2009 at 8:06 PM
I did Follow Romila Thapar’s Books as they were part of curriculam in Kendriya Vidyalayas(Central School) as CBSE curriculam is extremely Marxist oriented.
India is already Broken into pieces by sickularists.
christians and muslims NEVER Consider India as Their MotherLand and Respect India.
pect Their Mother while Abusing Her Character.
one cant say, They Respect their Mother While Abusing Her on Her Character.
That is What Minorities and Politically Correct lowlives do.
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