UP POLLS 2012 – MY FIELD LEVEL ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS
Dear All
I am logging in this site after a long time. I had last given my views / comments (under alias “RAJA”) in this forum, probably on 23rd May, 2009 just after UPA stormed back to power in the Lok sabha elections. A lot has changed since then including my shifting base from Kolkata to Delhi.
Being an ardent supporter of BJP (right from College days), I had allowed my heart to rule my head and thus a heavy dose of bias entered my analysis / predictions for 2009 Lok Sabha polls. I had initially predicted 120-125 seats for BJP and 165-170 for NDA (after Phase-I of the polls), which can be checked under “Comments (on 17.04.2009)” against topic “9 northern states prepoll prediction by raja,” though for individual States it went off mark. I then allowed my “BJP bias” to completely rule over me and I ended up gaving NDA 240+ seats, in the analysis of subsequent phases posted by me in this forum for Lok Sabha Polls 2009.
As a Sales head of my company, I and my subordinates have been travelling across Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand during the past 6 months as per the demands of our job. Market research forms a big component of my responsibilities. We have been meeting a lot of people (panchayat leaders, local groups etc), including rural and semi urban areas. An avid lover of Indian Politics, I happen to invariably discuss politics / elections with these people. This time I did not allow any bias to enter my analysis (till now).
A lot has been mentioned in media regarding increased polling % like enlightment of voters, youth interest in voting, Anna effect etc etc. But the main 2 factors have not been mentioned anywhere. They are
1) Cleaning up of voter list by CEC : CEC has done a commendable job in this regard. Around 8-9% list has been pruned, which were mainly bogus, dead, absentee voters. As a result the overall voter strength as compared to 2007 actually got reduced in 2012. Thus even though there was a 5-6% increased in actual voter turnout, the overall reduced voter strength resulted in an increase in polling from 46-48% to 61-62%.
2) Weather : The last time UP polls was held in Winter season was way back in 1998 (Lok Sabha), when the polling was around 57%, which was really high as per UP standards. Last 2 polls in UP (Lok sabha 2009 & Vidhan sabha 2007) were held during peak summer resulting in lower turnout. 1999 Lok sabha polls were also held during September, 1999 and 56% polling was registered, which was also quite high.
Only after this comes the Anna effect, increased participation by middle class etc. But it is a fact that % polling in Urban centres went up dramatically in the 2 phases as compared to earlier years. Bulk of this was first time middle class voters in the age group 18-23 and women. Hence this segment is very important for all parties.
Before we get to my projections for UP-2012, I would just give the breakup of % votes polled in last few Assembly elections in UP as well analyse the voting patterns of the main groups i.e Upper castes – OBC/MBC – Dalits – Minorities.
Year General SC
1996 56.1% 54.23%
2002 53.89% 53.48%
2007 46.42% 44.22%
(Eg. In 1996, out of registered 100 SC voters, 54.23 voters cast their franchise in the elections)
Actual break up of Upper castes, OBC/MBC and Minority votes is not available with anyone including Election commission and is included under “General”.
From the figure, it is clear that the media reports on “a surge of dalit voting during 2007” were actually a myth. What had actually happened was that BSP had, over a period of time, progressively increased its share amongst Dalit voters. As per unconfirmed reports, BSP had managed to get 85% of the Dalit votes in 2007, which turned out to be 17.5% of popular vote. The remaining 13% was mainly Urban upper caste votes who were tired with the SP regime and minority votes (in pockets). The 17.5% Dalit votes has become BSP committed voters.
SC/ST voters are very loyal unlike Upper caste / OBC voters. Hence once they decide to align with a particular party, it is very difficult to get them out even if anti incumbency is at play. This is why INC (the original preference of Dalit votes) is unable to make a dent in BSP vote bank in UP. This is also the reason why INC-NCP alliance returns to power in Maharashtra election after election, even though its governance is miserable. In Chattisgarh and Orissa, where BJP & BJD have respectively managed to attract the SC/ST voters, INC is losing election after election in these 2 states.
If we see the history of UP politics, the scene was mostly dominated by Upper castes right from Panchayat level. The first churning started in 1990 after Mandal commission and there after the Ram temple movement. OBC leaders like Mulayam Yadav, Kalyan Singh, Govindacharya, Lalu Yadav, Nitish Kumar, Uma Bharti came to the fore front. This also decimated the INC from the Hindi heart land as the party failed to read the change and did not adapt to the changing environment. The entire OBC block (45% of UP electorate) shifted to BJP in 1991 and to some extent SP post 1993. Along with this INC lost the Dalit votes as well as Upper caste votes.
A chunk of OBC voters stuck to BJP post 2002. During the disastrous BJP-BSP alliance in 2002-03, these voters deserted the BJP in droves to SP. By 2004, BJP became a party of “nobody” like the INC. It may be noted that post Mandalisation, the biggest rivals of Dalits in UP are the OBC voters and not Upper castes and as such they detest BSP rule.
Though INC lost the state in 1989, it was more of anti-incumbency. Janata Dal – CPI alliance had won the polls with 31.26% of popular vote against INC share of 27.7%, i.e a difference of only 3.5% in a bi-polar contest. INC vote share further slipped to 17.3% in 1991, 15.08% in 1993 and 8.35% in 1996.
Being at the fore front in UP politics, upper castes do not accept any dilution of their dominance in the State. Hence, they always “try to go along with the winner” so that their share in the power center do not reduce. This explains why the Upper castes allied with the BJP in 90s, gradually shifted to SP in post 2002 polls and then to BSP in 2007. This was in spite of BJP giving them maximum representation.
Muslims have traditionally voted for INC till 1989. There after they had resorted to strategic voting to keep BJP at bay. Bulk of these votes has been cornered by SP post-1992 Babri Masjid demolition. It is estimated that 60-75% of minority voters have gone to SP and the rest to BSP / INC during 1990s and early 2000s. In 2007, although there was media hype regarding Muslims voting en bloc for BSP, in reality it was not true. BSP got minority votes only in pockets. Bulk of minorities’ votes continued to vote for SP. This is evident from the fact that SP vote share remained same in 2002 as well as 2007 (25.4%), even though there was massive anti incumbency against the Mulayam regime. What had happened in 2007 was that the upper caste and urban votes shifted a big way to BSP from BJP, resulting in BSP getting a landslide victory. BJP vote share plummeted from 21.02% in 2002 to 16.97% in 2007.
During 1991, even though Muslims resorted to strategic voting, the deadly Upper caste – Non Yadav OBC combination knitted by BJP through Rath Yatra, was next to impossible to beat. This remained the mainstay of BJP till 1999 when Kalyan Singh was unceremoniously removed.
Coming to 45% OBC votes in UP; 10% are Yadavs, 8% Kurmis. The remaining 27% are Lodhs and MBCs. Yadavs and around 50% Kurmi voters from a solid vote bank for SP and give them a committed 14% vote overall. Post 2003, when SP took over power from the failed BJP-BSP experiment, MBC votes generally split among SP & BJP with SP getting a lion’s share. This explained why SP got 38 seats from UP in 2004 Lok Sabha polls and BJP ended up with only 10.
Off late, a feeling has crept amongst MBCs that Yadavs / Kurmis have cornered most of the OBC benefits and they have got a raw deal. This is particularly after the social engineering with MBC done by Nitish Kumar in Bihar post 2005. Thus a large number of MBC voters aligned with the INC during 2009, especially in Awadh and Purvachal regions as they felt that both BJP & SP were mostly working for “forward” OBCs.
SP alliance with Kalyan Singh had back fired totally for the party and Muslims voted for INC in large numbers. Varun Gandhi’s famous hate speech also pushed Muslims to the INC as they did not want a BJP led Government at the Centre. Voting for SP would only waste their franchise as SP was not in a position to form a Government at the Centre. In addition to this, INC smartly gave tickets to lot of new faces like RPN Singh, Pradip Jain, Kamal Kishore, Vinay Pandey, Anu Tandon, Arun Tiwari, Azharuddin etc etc. This gave the urban electorate a breath of fresh air since most of these candidates were young, untested and not having any baggage of anti incumbency. This explains why INC stunned all poll pundits by winning 21 seats in UP. However, their performance would be put to test in 2014 Lok Sabha polls as anti incumbency has started brewing against them. In stark contrast, BJP re-nominated their old candidates resulting in losses.
A big advantage with the INC is that its voters are in pockets unlike BSP and SP. Hence with 18.7% votes, it managed to upstage BSP during 2009 with 21 seats and was leading in 94 assembly segments. BSP, with its core vote share spread out across the state, managed only 20 LS seats with a 27.4% share.
The party wise breakup for Lok Sabha 2009 is given below.
Vote share Seats
SP 23.3% 23
BSP 27.4% 20
INC 18.3% 21
BJP 17.5% 10
RLD 3.3% 5
Now I come to my observations in the current scenario.
Though I am against the Nehru – Gandhi legacy, I am forced to accept the massive ground work carried out single handedly by Rahul Gandhi in the State especially through Youth INC leaders. Though his visits to colleges / universities have been pooh-poohed upon by all, the truth is that it has really brought about an impact at the ground level. I have talked to lot of young people and found that Urban middle class youth in UP, cutting all sections of society, are looking up to Rahul Gandhi’s leadership. Being in the age group 18-23, they have not experienced the earlier INC regimes (which have destroyed UP) and feel that INC should be given a chance in the State. Though Akhilesh Yadav is also trying to attract youth in the State, Rahul Gandhi is somewhat ahead in urban centres. The only catch is that INC does not have any Chief Ministerial candidate.
I hate to say that BJP has totally failed to attract the new voters and the youth feel that BJP is a spent force and party without future with leaders more interested in fighting each other. More over Kushwaha episode has also created a negative impact in this segment of voters.
Announcement of 4.5% quota for minorities has not helped INC as expected. Minorities find SP more effective to check BJP rise (if any) in UP during Assembly polls. But in some pockets, there is a definite split of minority votes, which is helping BSP. Here also BJP is unable to take advantage of the split in minority votes.
Some media reports / social blogs have indicated that 4.5% minority quota announcement by the Centre has back fired and there is a consolidation in favour of BJP. I have visited around 23 districts of UP during the past 2 months and have found that there is absolutely no truth in this statement. I have talked on this issue to a few MBC leaders who have said that such reservation would not affect MBCs as most of the benefits are cornered by “forward” OBCs (Yadavs, Kurmis etc) and MBCs anyhow get a raw deal. Yadavs are firmly behind SP this time also. In fact this is the reason why INC has started re-emphasizing the 4.5% minority quota after giving it a brief earlier. The first 2 phases have indicated that there is absolutely no effect consolidation of OBC votes towards BJP.
Upper castes (especially Brahmins) are as usual “going along with the wind” and are favoring mostly INC as they feel sooner or later it would be a INC led Government in UP. A substantial chunk of upper castes are also going voting for SP, especially in rural areas, which is negating its loss of minority votes, which INC is eating up. As a result vote share of SP is not rising dramatically like it did for BSP in 2007. This observation was also quite surprising.
Forget about attracting, BJP has failed terribly in holding onto its traditional upper caste vote bank. This fact has also been echoed by Chakresh ji through his comments on 04.02.2012 against the topic “UP prepoll prediction for 2012 assembly election”.
Even though there is a marked anti incumbency against BSP in the State, Dalits are firmly behind Mayawati as they do not want SP at any cost. Mayawati is losing upper caste votes heavily. As a result as there shall be a drastic reduction in BSP vote share. Being a shrewd politician Mayawati is now trying very hard in ensuring higher turnouts by Dalits so that she can reduce her losses.
One of the biggest mistakes of BJP, which have incidentally turned off voters, is that right from beginning its target was to somehow pip INC for the 3rd position instead of going for a victory in UP. I have talked to quite a few BJP lower rung leaders, who have mentioned that 3rd spot is more important at this stage with around 75-80 seats. In fact BJP is seriously campaigning in only 250-260 seats out of 403!
While holding on to its 2009 performances in Awadh and Purvachal (North & West) regions, INC in alliance with RLD is making impressive gains in Western UP. However INC is losing in Bundelkhand where SP and to some extent BJP is making gains. Additionally Azharuddin has been shown thumbs down in Moradabad with INC losing from here. The most surprising aspect of my findings is that the in this region, BSP upper caste and urban votes are getting shifted to INC/RLD. As a result INC/RLD alliance is winning these seats and SP is winning by default in the places where INC/RLD candidate is weak.
About BJP; the least said, the better. They are losing even in their traditional urban stronghold areas like Ghaziabad, Meerut, Mathura, Agra, Lucknow and Varanasi. However Uma Bharati’s campaigning is helping BJP to get an additional seat or two in Bundelkhand. INC is not doing well in this region including Jhansi.
IN OTHER WORDS, BJP IS DECLINING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE STATE AND ACROSS ALL SECTIONS. Added to this, important leaders like Varun & Menaka Gandhi, M.M Joshi, Adityanath are campaigning only in their respective constituencies. Though Uma Bharti is pulling crowds, it is unlikely that they would translate into votes. Many BJP lower rung leaders whom I have talked to are totally demoralized with the party and they fear that a large chunk may switch loyalties to other parties if BJP performs badly. They mostly blame their top leadership (Central & State) for the sorry state of affairs. Almost everyone feels that only a towering figure like Narendra Modi can lift the party from the morass.
Finally my assessment (with a pinch of salt) with regard to 2012 UP polls is under :
Vote share (2007) % +/- swing Seats (2012)
SP 25.43% (+) 0.5 to 1.0% 170-175
BSP 30.43% (-) 5.0 to 5.5% 90-100
INC/RLD 12.31%* (+) 8.0 to 8.5% 100-105
BJP 16.97% (-) 4.0 to 4.5% 30 – 35
* INC+RLD (INC – 8.61%, RLD – 3.7%)
One thing is very sure. INC is on the rise across UP, especially amongst the Brahmin-Muslim-MBC vote bank. In fact, if the same momentum continues in 2014, INC may end up winning 35+ seats from UP alone.
- Shiladitya Bose.
Take a look at these related posts:
- Pre-poll prediction after phase 3 by Shiladitya Bose
- Pre-poll prediction by Arun Nehru and case of possible post poll alliances
- UP prepoll prediction for 2012 assembly election
- Kerala pre-poll prediction : UDF front runner, BJP might get lucky
- India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction
February 17, 2012 at 8:49 PM
Dude..I have read your analysis 2 days ago on off stumped blog.
Really very sad news that BJP is loosing ground in UP and Cong is gaining.
What else we can do except voting for BJP??
February 18, 2012 at 3:25 AM
I still feel that BJP is not doing that bad as predicted by Shiladitya ji. Although they are not managing their cards very well but still there is a lot of goodwill for BJP in the state. Wherever the candidates and caste equations are good, BJP is very much in the fight. Lets see what happens
February 18, 2012 at 10:59 AM
Though BJP is down but it is certainly not out. Chakresh ji is right. Still there is a lot of goodwill for BJP in the state especially among upper castes and non Yadav MBC voters. In fact the last paragraph of my article (regarding INC getting 35+ seats in 2014) was more of an emotional outburst than fact.
Where ever there is a quadrangular / triangular contest (like UP), any, party needs a “critical mass” of voters, which act as a base. Once this critical mass is attained by a particular party, a small shift / swing of votes to that party result in a victory for them. For SP, the Yadav-Muslim vote bank acts as a critical mass. For BSP, the 17% Dalit vote acts as same. For RLD, Jats form the critical mass in Western UP. If a party does not have the “critical mass”, it would require a major wave for it to win the elections. Such “wave” happened only twice in UP history – 1) During 1977 after emergency; and 2) In 1991, post Rath yatra and firing on Kar sevaks.
Other examples of critical mass are BJP’s Lingayat vote in Karnataka, INC/NCP’s Dalit-Minority vote in Maharshtra, INC’s Reddy vote bank in Andhra, Lalu’s famed M-Y combination in Bihar etc. This is the main reason why all parties try to woo different castes during elections.
Post 2007 debacle in UP, INC has carefully built up this “critical mass” mainly in Awadh & Purvachal regions partly through Upper caste – MBC combination. In 2009, the shift / swing in minority votes (from SP to INC) over the “critical mass” gave them an astounding result.
During 1990s, the entire Upper caste – MBC combination acted as a “critical mass” for BJP, which was itself very big and hence a very small shift in other votes used to lead the party to victory. This also explains why BJP used to lead in more than 175 assembly segments (& 50 Lok sabha seats) election after election during 1990s, without much ado.
Other than Dalit vote bank (and to some extent OBC Yadav and Muslim vote), no other “critical” chunk is loyal and can be shifted to another party by careful strategy and planning, which was demonstrated by INC in 2009.
Sadly now BJP has a very low level of “critical mass”. Hence it would require a so called “wave” to do well in UP like 1991. Since people are fed up with the BSP, the anti incumbency votes are going to SP & INC as they feel only these parties can defeat BSP.
However, all is not lost for BJP. I am reproducing my comments, which I have posted in “Offstumped”
There is palpable anti incumbency brewing against most of the sitting INC Lok Sabha members from the State, though the same is not affecting the current round of elections. I have personally visited around 14 constituencies where INC has won in 2009 and have seen the disillusionment building up. In fact in Moradabad town, having high minority population, the local BJP leader is more popular that Azharuddin among minorities!!!
The problem this time that BJP has started very late and as a result could not encash on the disenchantment of the MBC / Upper castes. In fact I have talked to lot of upper caste and non Yadav OBC leaders at grass root level as well as youth leaders in urban UP. I have found that a large number prefer BJP over INC. However, since in this current round BJP has not prepared itself, they are voting en bloc for SP & INC (in urban areas) so that BSP can be kept out. The main aim is to defeat BSP and they are voting to the party who can defeat them. This is the reason of the shift of Upper caste votes in urban areas from BJP to INC and SP. Similar shift was observed in 2007 assembly polls where the shift took place from BJP to BSP, since the voters felt that only BSP could defeat SP. It took only 2 years for this bloc to shift its loyalty and they voted for INC in 2009. The fresh young faces (RPN Singh, Pradip Jain, Kamal Kishore, Vinay Pandey, Anu Tandon, Arun Tiwari, Azharuddin) put up by INC in 2009 also captured the minds of the voters, thus ensuring 21 seats for the party.
The entire scenario would change in the Lok Sabha polls as the anti incumbency against the ruling UPA would come into play. Moreover, in case of a hung assembly (very likely), INC would try to rule by proxy thru’ President’s rule. In such case if the party does not implement its promise of 9% minority quota, it would lose their votes in a big way just like post-1992. In case they really implement it, there would be a reverse consolidation of OBC against INC, which would directly help BJP (and not SP) since OBCs know very well that SP would any way ally with INC in the Lok Sabha. Currently the consolidation is not taking place as they think that the announcement is just a poll stunt. This was also one of the major findings after talking to the grass root level OBC leaders.
Another fact. Among urban youth corruption is a big issue, which cuts across all sections of youth in the society. I have talked to a lot of students / young adults and found the high level of disenchanement with the INC led government. Though Kushwaha and Karnataka episodes have dented BJPs image , it fares much better than the image of UPA-2. This section which had voted for INC in a big way in 2009 can be tapped by BJP since the disillusionment is starting to show.
Ditto for the minority vote, which INC had tapped due to SP-Kalyan Singh alliance in 2009. SP has become wiser now and hence INC would not be able to get that level of minority support in 2014.
Moreover, Uma Bharti has brought in a level of vibrancy in BJP’s campaign, which has been acknowledged also by the media (NDTV, CNN-IBN). Though it is unlikely that it would translate into votes in the current round of polls, it can have a lasting impact in case she stays back in UP till 2014.
In addition, the fresh faces put up by INC in 2009 shall also face major anti incumbencies in their respective constituencies. I have seen the anti incumbency building up and this does not bode well for the party.
HOWEVER BJP HAS TO SET ITS HOUSE IN ORDER AND WORK VERY HARD TO BECOME A MAJOR CONTENDER FOR POWER IN 2014 THIS LOOKS REMOTE IF WE SEE THE CURRENT STATE OF AFFAIRS IN THE PARTY.
Let us wait till 2014, before we write off BJP.
February 18, 2012 at 1:03 PM
Hi Shiladitya,
With just 26%, can SP manage 170 seats..I doubt it….
In 2002, SP 26.5%I guess, and it won 143 seats…
I think, you might have over estimated Cong too…I really doubt if Cong manages 3 digit figure along with RLD?? The way Cong leaders are saying, the way Rahul become too much temper…I really doubt on Cong performance..
Well…Like you, all Media is saying BJP is out of race….Dont know…Only March 6 will tell this….If this is the case, then, we will see very dramatic changes in BJP leadership…I guess, Modi will come center stage…he doesn’t even care for Nitish etc….He will take charge…Let JDU leave NDA….If BJP manages 170 seats under Modi means…many others will come..
February 18, 2012 at 4:42 PM
Bala ji
It is true that no one, I repeat, no one can correctly predict the final results in UP, due to its complexity. I remember in 2004, the entire media (NDTV, Hindustan Times, Aaj Tak etc) were unanimously giving 32-35 seats to BJP in UP. At the end BJP got only 10 seats where as SP/RLD alliance notched up 43 (SP-38 & RLD-5).
In 2002, it was more of a triangular contest between SP, BJP & BSP. INC was a fringe player at that time with a 7-8% vote share. Hence with 26.5% votes SP got only 143 seats. The current round of elections is a quadrangular contest and hence with a lesser % of votes a party can get higher seats.
For eg., in 1996, BJP got only 174 (out of 425 in undivided UP) seats with 33.5% vote share in a triangular contest , where as in 2007 BSP won 206 seats (out of 403) with 30.4% vote share in a quadrangular contest.
Though the media is obsessed with Narendra Modi (both for riots and development), it is doubted whether he would make a big impact at the national stage. Yes, part of the middle class would be swayed by him but whether he would deliver results in terms of Lok Sabha seats is doubt ful. Take for eg. Gujarat. In 2007 he returned with a thumping victory mainly on the issue of development, where as in 2009 parliamentary polls, he could ensure only 15 out of 26 seats for BJP from Gujarat. In 2004, he managed only 14 seats for BJP. In fact, earlier CM, Keshubhai Patel had a much better strike rate than Narendra Modi in Lok Sabha polls.
Others CMs like Yeddyurappa, Shivraj Chouhan, Raman Singh, Nitish Kumar have given a much higher return in terms of Lok Sabha seats from their respective states to BJP/NDA.
If Narendra Modi is brought to national stage, allies like Mamata, Nitish, Naveen Pattnaik, Chandrababu Naidu would be out of bounds. Only Shiv Sena, JMM and Akalis would remain. AIADMK also may join NDA.
BJP (with Shiv Sena / Akali / AIADMK / JMM) can do well only in few states viz HP, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Rajasthan, MP, Chattisgarh, Karnataka, Punjab, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Tamil Nadu. Cumulative no. of seats in these states is only 250. In HP, MP, TN, Karnataka & Chattisgarh anti incumbency would come into play by 2013 and hence NDA may not perform well in these states. Assuming NDA sweeps other states mentioned, it can at max expect 140-145 seats with these allies in 2013, out of which, BJP can win only 100 odd. Fighting alone in the rest of the country would yield additional 30-35 seats to BJP (mainly from UP / Bihar / Assam / Haryana / Goa). This means with Narendra Modi at helm, BJP would end up winning only 130-135 and NDA with 180-185 seats.
In 1996, though BJP had won 161 seats with a few allies viz Shiv Sena, AGP (Assam) and Akalis, bulk of it came from UP (52 seats). Replicating a similar feat in UP during 2014 parliamentary elections is next to impossible.
Let us wait for 6th March for the final results and future of BJP.
February 18, 2012 at 5:31 PM
I don’t see the change in fortune of BJP/NDA changing that dramatically in 2014, though it will definitely improve.
Congress is at its peak of 206 seats in modern India lok sabha elections, 9/10 in Haryana, 7/7 in Delhi 5/5 in Mumbai (thanks to MNS), 20/25 in Rajasthan and 33/40 in Andhra and decent gains in rest all.
Of 45 seats in Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, HP,J&K and Uttarkhand they managed 32/45 in 2009 will lose 10 seats to BJP+ and 5-6 others, Congress will Loose 15 seats in Rajasthan to BJP,BJP will gain 10 seats in Telengana (3 extra to TRS), Kerala Congress will loose 10 to CPM, and 10 to TDP in Andhra, Rest will be more or less same.
Congress is loosing 55 seats to 150 and BJP alone is gaining 35 to 150-155 seats. Now, there are 2-3 things which are critical and will determine who forms the Govt, SP will surely join congress, now weither BSP joins NDA and fights together or joins later.
TMC Mamta , whether she stays with UPA or she moves to NDA. If she stays in UPA (chances are high) how many seats TMC gets Vs CPM. If CPM gets 25+ in WB and 15 in Kerala and 2 in Tripura, their value increase for congress just like in 2004.
I think we’ll still see a UPA Congress let bit instable govt in 2014 with SP inside the UPA and outside support of Communist.
This will allow realignment of Political forces with TMC joining NDA and BSP (Mayavati ) realizing that only way she can go national is if she allies with NDA, which Jayalalita has understood now after toppling VAjpayee Govt earlier.
I think and unstable , Communist backed UPA/Congress Govt is best for the chances of BJP/NDA to form govt.
February 18, 2012 at 5:13 PM
Congress raised issues of Corruption against BJP-SS alliance in BMC (Mumbai Municipality Elections) , SS-BJP focused on development. Does it sound similar to the campaign happening in UP, Rahul says BSP is corrupt , but people know the biggest scam of 1,70,000 Cr Rs happened under Congress. In the end, congress is vanished from the scene with BJP-SS sweeping BMC election, so remember, young , educated people are not voting for Congress.
Middle Class People in UP are also educated, they also watch TV, they understand who is where in terms of issues. I don’t buy the fact that young and educated are voting for Congress, so that our PM Manmohan singh can do more of what his doing (that is nothing).
Yes, BJP will not be no. 1 party, which will be Mulayam because of Muslim votes. Also, SP will get more votes because of Akhilesh Yadav than Rahul Gandhi. I am sure, Congress is coming 4th, and it is close match for 2nd between BJP & BSP.
Digvijay Singh has now admitted that if Congress doesn’t do well, he is responsible for that, he is just trying to save Rahul from the Blame that is going to come. The biggest problem for Congress is that, why would a congress voter not vote for SP when they know SP will form the govt. either alone or with Congress after the election.
I think this is how it will stand,
SP 160 -170
BJP/BSP 100/80 (It can swap depending on BSP vote share)
Congress 30-40
RLD 15-20
Others 10-15
February 19, 2012 at 12:07 AM
Lets discuss about 2014 elections separately. But, One thing is sure: Cong will be routed in MH,AP and RJT. In these states, Cong can hardly get 25-30 seats of total 115 seats(Currently, it is holding over 75 seats.)
The Anti incumbency in cong ruled states in very high than BJP ruled states.
Well, As far as UP is concerned, Rahul today admitted in Editor’s meeting that, he will call victory if Cong doubles the vote % than that of 2007. He also told them that, only if a party gets over 20%, that party will get good number of seats.
He is conceding his defeat in UP already…sensing he might end up with 50-55 seats…Lets see…
February 19, 2012 at 10:13 PM
Dear AK / Bala
Rout of Cong in Maharashtra is not possible till Raj returns to SS fold. Municipal polls cannot be compared to Assembly / Lok sabha polls.
1) During the current round of Municipal polls in Mumbai, none of the sitting Cong Lok Sabha MPs from Mumbai (Gurudas Kamat, Sanjay Nirupam, Priya Dutt, Milind Deora etc etc) campaigned for the party, where as SS cadres campaigned relentlessly since it was a matter of their survival. This picture would be totally different during 2014 polls as these Cong MPs would put in their best efforts and resources to be re-elected.
2) MNS has managed to sweep SS strong holds like Dadar, Worli etc. It has polled 20% vote in Mumbai alone and has made strong in roads in urban areas like Pune, Nasik, Thane etc.
3) Elections to Mumbai suburbs (Panvel, Navi Mumbai, etc) were held last month, where BJP-SS was badly defeated in most wards by INC/NCP. Here also MNS factor was at play.
4) Performance of BJP-SS in the Zilla parishad polls were very poor. INC / NCP has swept in most areas (Marthwada, Konkan etc) in spite of fighting separately in most of the smaller towns.
5) Other than Nagpur city, the BJP-SS alliance failed in most towns of Vidharbha. This is the same region which was instrumental in the 1st BJP-SS rule in the state. Till 2004, BJP-SS used to sweep this region. (in 2004, they won 10 out of 11 seats in this region). Since 2009, the alliance is continuously on the downhill with no signs of recovery. This does not bode well for the party.
Thus it looks like position of BJP-SS in Maharashtra would further deteriorate during 2014, if the current trends continue. Only the return of Raj to Shiv Sena can reverse the trend.
W.r.t AP, it is very difficult for BJP do well in Telengana. BJP does not have a strong leader any where in the state. Telengana leaders who had built the party in AP during 90s & early 2000s have mostly left. In South India, politics is mostly leader centric (instead of party centric) and without any strong leader, BJP cannot make a dent. That is why, only when Cong has a strong leader in AP, it performs well. Else the opposition wins. Chandrababu’s TDP is also quite weak now. Plus Chiranjeevi’s merger with the Cong has given the party a fillip as he has a strong fan following.
Secondly, there is lot of back room activity to bring back Jagan back to Cong. Most likely he is going to be given an important place in the party or Govt. This is why, his CBI cases his currently going slow. But yes. Cong would lose 10-12 seats from 2009 due to anti incumbency.
I agree with you that Cong shall be routed in Rajasthan. But the gain would be offset with the loss in Karnataka, where BJP is likely to be routed by Cong. Madhya Pradesh is another state which may go the Cong way, in case Jyotiraditya Scindia is projected as CM. It is understood that Rahul Gandhi is pushing for his candidature. Anti incumbency is increasing in this state against the ruling BJP.
Other than this NDA can increase its tally only in Delhi, Uttarakhand, Punjab & Haryana by 15-17 seats at max. These states have only 35 seats between them.
W.r.t West Bengal; being a native of that state, I can openly say that TMC would win around 33-35 seats from the state ON ITS OWN without Cong. It would take CPM another 8-10 years to wash off the 34 years misrule from people’s mind. Though I am not complimenting TMC governance, which is also quite pathetic. In fact Cong would be the biggest loser if the alliance breaks as it would not be able to keep its current 6 seats from the state and may end up with 2-3 only. TMC knows this quite well and hence Mamata is constantly embarrassing UPA-2.
But one thing is true. No one can gauge the Indian electorate. 2004 poll results were a big example.
March 4, 2012 at 2:37 AM
After your comments about AP I doubt whether you are making all these comments with proper analysis and understanding at ground level. Congress and TDP have no chance in 100 of 120 seats in telangana and of the remaining 20, MIM gets 4 to 7, BJP and TRS got good chance is most others in hyderabad. If BJP allies with TRS in Telagnana they can sweep most of the seats except muslim dominated seats which are very less.
In andhra too, in rayalaseema, Jagan will sweep most of the seats, where as in andhra, it will be be a three way split for congress, TDP and jagan. Most probably congress will be routed in parliament elections, though for assembly could end up winning anything 40 to 100 seats, and for parliament with less than 5 seats which is about 30 seats less than 2009 in AP alone.
February 20, 2012 at 3:40 PM
Well, Shailaditya Ji, I arrive at the following Conclusions from Your Analysis:
1.BJP is with very little Critical Mass
2. BJP has not managed/Prepared well for 202 but is only targetting 2014
3. There is lot of Infighting in BJP
February 20, 2012 at 3:47 PM
Dear Sgailaditya Ji, are the electorate of Bengal happy with Ms Mamta Banerjee? she is hysterical and speaks non sense most of the time. She isnt fit to be An Administrator and whenever one listens to her, its like a lunatic speaking. She has no administrative capability. She won in 2011 only because of Strong Anti Incumbency against the communists, who felt like they were dictators.
February 20, 2012 at 5:16 PM
Mr Bose,
I am from Andhra and I know the politics of Andhra very well. in 2014, out of 42 seats, Cong can manage 10 seats whatever the case..Be Jagan with Cong, be Chiru with Cong. Take my word. People will just vote to any symbol other than ‘Hand’. I didn’t say that BJP is strong in Telangana…I said, Cong will be routed in AP. May be TDP will gain in Andhra region and TRS will gain in telangana region and BJP will also gain in telangana region..When there is anti incumbancy, No one, No one can save the party!!
In MH, most likely, there will be a truce between SS and MNS. This will be formulated by BJP for their ‘own’ benifit. Nitin will not leave MH so easily to Cong this time.
You agreed that Rajantan will be going to BJP this time.
For Karnataka, Who is the leader for Congress? NO ONE. BJP is still force there..and BJP will come to power if elections are held today…Id this is not the case, center would have imposed elections long back. Still, BJP enjoys Ligatath support in Karnataka.
I was told that, BJP will win in MP too..There is no strong leader for Cong in MP..and Joyti is not from OBC..Chouhan is from OBC and with Uma support(Lodhi), BJP will get back to power in MP too..
Please don’t write off BJP…BJP is reviving…its just the beginning…Now, BJP is very careful and will emerge as the strong force by 2014.
The politics will be changed dramatically after UP election results…Just wait..
February 20, 2012 at 8:46 PM
I feel that until BJP resolves its central leadership issue, too many leaders shall keep pulling it in different direction (actually reality is that nobody is pulling it in any direction). Once BJP solves that issue, it can again become a true force. Also there is a talk of third front again, by Mamta, Naidu, Patnaik, Amma etc. If BJP becomes strong and focused, these parties are natural part of NDA.
February 20, 2012 at 9:17 PM
I have no doubt that BJP will win more seats than Congress in 2014, but it will not be able to form govt. unless there is political realignment for which congress will ditch TMC to get support from CPM. As BJP can only go with TMC.
AP, BJP has now for the 1st time come up with complete support for Telengana , they just completed Telengana poru yatra. Now they are clear they need do well in telengana. Making Telengana is in their manifesto now. With congress & TDP not taking clear stance , Telengana will vote for NDA. Currently, there are 17 seats in Telengana, Hyd will go to MIM, TRS is having 2 seats , TDP 2 congress 12. BJP will have alliance with TRS for sure with BJP fighting 10 seats (in Loksabha) and 6 TRS and giving 60% – 70% assembly seats to TRS.
The telengana movement is so strong that Congress will score 0 here, and out of 25 seats in Coastal AP this time it will be direct fight Vs TDP , with no chiru to divide vote, Congress will lose 10 more seats to TDP.
You may be from Bengal, but I can bet if Mamta is going to rule like how she is doing now, calling a rape a fabricated , her arrogance will doom her, CPM will come back strongly in WB.
Maharashtra will face double incumbancy for 10 years of Misrule in both Centre and Mumbai, people know that and they’ll vote tactfully this time to avoid vote split.
I think after UP election there will be big time realignment of Political forces with SP joining UPA formally and BSP may join NDA before 2014 elections as both SP & BSP has maxed out there performance in UP and they know they need to join either of the front now.
Overall we’ll see more number of smaller parties in LS going forward and fragmented Mandate on National Level.
February 21, 2012 at 11:49 AM
Dear Sirs,
During the previous Punjab Assembly Elections, there was news in the main steam media that while the Akalis will win their seats, the BJP will loose in urban areas to Congress. When the result came the BJP did better than both Akali & Congress.
During Bihar Assembly Elections, there was news in the media that the Upper Cast votes will defenitely go to the Congress and NOT to the BJP. There were even ‘speculation’ of Nitish joing UPA since both are ‘secular’. But when the results came, BJP did better than JD (U) and the Congress.
In the just concluded BMC elections, it is the BJP that did better than both Shiv Sena, NCP & Congress by bettering their previous tally.
I am not saying that BJP will better their seats dramatically in UP, but I don’t trust the ‘Main Stream News Media’. I only hope that the BJP will do better in UP.
February 21, 2012 at 12:17 PM
I full endorsed the view of Mr. Arun, MSM is totally biased against BJP, no doubt BJP is not on its peak so far as UP is concern, but not as bad as media is projecting. BJP going to perform well in Purvanchal, Western UP and Bundelkhand. Psephologist Yogendar Yadav consistently undermine the performance of BJP, be it were Bihar, Gujrat,Karnatka,….. example is endless. I m watching his analysis right from early 90′s , he never praised BJP once. During Bihar election his prediction was BJP might performed worse then Congress, even struggle to retain previous tally, while results shows otherwise
February 21, 2012 at 1:18 PM
We all know who is patron for CNN-IBN editor in chief Rajdeep Sardesai and NDTV which has a journalist Barkha Dutt, who was actively involved in making Congress Govt. alongwith jailed DMK leader Kanimozi.
These channels are sponsored by Congress. Aren’t you sick of the footage Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi (although she just campaigned in 10 seats), Robert Vadhra , Priyanka’s children are getting. Congress and English Media, CNN-IBN, NDTV are sick people and want to control people’s mind through Media.
In English media there is only one neutral channels, that is Times Now, the way Arnab Campaigned relentlessly covering Anna Hazare and highlighting Lok Ayukta issue, Congress spokeperson refused to come to his channels as he asked really tough questions. Unlike the game of reciprocity played between Burkha Dutt and
Congress, where Congress has given her padam bhushan for helping Cong form govt by become middleman dealing with DMK.
In Hindi Channels , watch India TV , Zee Tv and to some extent Star TV , they still work independent of Congress direct influence, paid news is different thing.
February 21, 2012 at 1:14 PM
Well, Yogendra Predicted 180-201 seats for NDA in Bihar 2010 elections which proved correct. Yogendra Predicted 6-12 seats for Cong in Bihar 2010 elections which was also correct. Just google CNN-IBN exit polls for Bihar 2010 elections.
Something fishy is happening as far as UP is concerned. The Satta Market says that it will be 1:2.60 if BJP crosses 50 seats in UP which means, for a 1 rupee, the user will get 2.60 rupees if BJP crosses 50 seats.
There are others who says that BJP will come second in UP!!
There are people who says BJP will be routed out in UP and will get 20-25 seats!!
February 21, 2012 at 1:26 PM
Latest Hot and Happening Exit Poll Result , BJP in 2nd Position, for those who doubt the BJP performance.
I think Nitin Gadkari has astute leadership qualities, he is very effective in the same. The result is evident in Nagpur Municipality which was fought under his direct leadership and BJP improved on tally to 52 from 43 last time, where Congress,NCP performed worst.
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/up-exit-poll-bsp-on-top-bjp-gains/39354-4.html
Margin of error in Exit poll is less as they ask people after they have voted.
—————————————————–
New Delhi: The Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party continued to rule on top while BJP surged past Samajwadi Party to the second spot in a new exit poll after the fifth round of polls for the UP Assembly elections on Saturday.
Three different exit polls conducted after the fifth phase of voting showed that the BSP continues to hold on to its top position in the race for power in the heartland state. The Bharatiya Janata Party gained remarkably in the last few rounds to edge past the ruling Samajwadi Party to secure second place, the polls showed.
According to an exit poll by NDTV, BSP is projected to get 120 to 130 seats while BJP follows closely with 115 to 125 for BJP in the 403-member UP Assembly. The poll gave 95 to 105 seats to the SP, 35 to 45 to Congress and 15 to 25 seat to other parties and Independents.
BJP seems to have made a huge gain in the fifth round of polls, bagging 21 of the 57 constituencies that went to poll on Saturday. BSP is projected to get 14 seats from the fifth round while SP will get 10, Congress nine and others three.
An exit poll by Star News showed BSP and BJP in a neck-and-neck contest in the fifth phase with 24 and 23 seats respectively followed by SP with 22 and Congress with 14. It predicted 141 seats for BSP, 104 for BJP and its allies, 91 for SP, 29 for Congress and 37 for others.
The India TV-C Voter exit poll, however, predicted 18 to 22 seats for BSP in the fifth phase. The exit poll projected 12 to 16 for
SP, eight to 12 seats for BJP, seven to 11 seats for the Congress and three to seven for others in the fifth round of polls.
February 21, 2012 at 2:44 PM
Dear Bala,
I agree the fact that Yogendra had predicted NDA victory in the Bihar Elections correctly in the Post Poll Survay. But even in that and in the shows before that, Yogendra was saying that the Upper Cast Votes will be tranferred to Congress from BJP. Further he was consistantly undermining the BJP by maintaining that the victory was more because of JDU. But when the results came, BJP fared better in terms of seats won against those contested.
But Satta Bazar can be correct. Wonder what the satta market tells for the BSP, SP, BJP and Congress after 5 rounds of polling.
February 21, 2012 at 2:52 PM
@AK
This is an exit poll from 2007 elections, that you have posted. Not for this election
February 21, 2012 at 5:20 PM
Here is the link for Satta Market:
http://www.hindustantimes.com/Specials/Coverage/Assembly-Elections-2012/Chunk-HT-UI-AssemblyElections2012-UP-TopStories/SP-safe-bet-BSP-stocks-down/SP-Article10-814434.aspx
February 23, 2012 at 7:00 PM
according to my astrological calculations the results will be as follows
1. SP 160
2.BJP 90
3.CONG+RLD 90
4.BSP 60
5. OTHERS 03
———————————
TOTAL 403
———————————
February 24, 2012 at 11:02 AM
And how did you do the Astrological Calculations , Can you please explain ?
February 24, 2012 at 11:34 AM
simple
prepared a question chart on 6:50 pm
condition of ascendant chart was for congress
condition of navansh for bjp
condition of dashans for bsp
condition of ekadashans for sp
February 25, 2012 at 7:58 PM
Dear Indra lal,
do’nt be red wait for 6 march truth will come out. i am little confuse and very much sure you do’nt know how politics work .you can,t decide seat on finger by counting your astrology number.time has changed you and your astrology can n’t make fool for a long time to public. do you really know ABCD of politics. or astrology.
February 25, 2012 at 2:14 PM
@ Bala,
Can you pls post what satta market is saying in Punjab & Uttarakhand. In Goa there is a general anti Congress mood in the Satta Market.
February 26, 2012 at 12:22 AM
Analysis by Rudra Shekhar(Twitter)
Analysis of my Forecast of the worst possible situation in UP for BJP
Awadh:
Lucknow : 9 seats: INC+ = 2 BJP =2 SP=4 BSP =1
Amethi : 5 seats : INC+ = 4(That is if it wins Amethi,Jagdishpur,Gaurigunj& Salon which is very unlikely) SP = 1 (Tiloi, INC candidate has almost accepted defeat)
Rae Bareilly : 5 seats : INC = 2 Peace Party/Others = 2 SP : 1
Sultanpur : 5 seats : SP= 4 Others = 1
Kanpur :10 seats : BJP =2 INC = 2 BSP = 5 SP = 1
Ramabai Nagar (Kanpur Dehat) : 4 Seats : SP = 4
Ambedkar Nagar : 5 seats : SP = 3 BSP = 2
Unnav : 6 Seats : BJP = 5 SP = 1
Sitapur : 9 Seats : BJP = 1 BSP =2 INC =2 SP = 4
Farukkabad (Louise Khurshid) : 4 Seats : SP = 4
Kannauj : 3 seats : SP = 3
Lakhimpur : 8 Seats : BJP = 5 SP = 3
Hardoi : 8 seats : SP = 5 BSP =3
Barabanki : 6 Seats : INC = 5 SP : 1
Faisabad : 5 Seats : BJP = 3 BSP = 1 SP = 1
Bahraich : 7 Seats : BJP = 4 SP = 3
Gonda : 7 seats : BJP = 1 BSP = 1 SP = 5
Balarampur : SP = 2 INC = 1 BSP = 1
Shravasti : 2 Seats : SP = 2
Etah : 4 seats BJP =2 SP =2
Mainpuri : 4 seats : SP = 3 BSP = 1
Auraiya : 3 Seats : BJP = 1 SP = 1 BSP = 1
Itawa : 3 Seats : SP =3
Pratapgarh : 7 Seats : INC 2 BJP 1 SP 1 Others (Raja Bhaiya) 3
Now
Harith Pradesh :
Ghaziabad: 5 Seats : BJP = 4 BSP = 1
Noida : 3 Seats : BJP = 2 BSP 1
Meerut : 7 Seats : BJP : 4 SP : 1 RLD : 1 INC : 1
Baghpat : 3 Seats : RLD = 3
Muzzafarnagar : 6 Seats : SP 3 BSP 2 Others 1
Bulandshahar : 7 Seats : BSP 3 SP 2 RLD 1 BJP 1
Aligarh : 7 Seats BJP 2 SP 2 BSP 3 Others 1
Hathras : BJP 2 BSP 1
Mathura : 5 Seats : RLD 3 BJP 1 Others 1 (TMC) Candidate winning against Jayant Chowdhury s/o Ajit Singh in the Mait seat!
Firozabad : 5 seats : BJP 2 SP 2 BSP 1
Kanshiram Nagar 3 Seats : 2 BSP 1 Others!
Bareilly : 9 Seats : BJP 3 SP 3 INC 1 BSP 2
PILIBHIT : 3 seats SP 3 BJP 1 (Varun Effect nil)
Shahjahanpur : 6 Seats : BJP 1 BSP 1 SP 4
Amroha : 4 Seats RLD 2 SP 2
Badhayun : BJP 2 SP 3 BSP 1 BJP 1
Moradabad :6 seats : BJP 2, SP 1 BSP 2 INC 1
Sambhal : 4 seats SP 2 BSP 1 INC 1
Rampur : 5 seats : BJP 1 SP 1 (Azam Khan) INC 3
Bijnor : 8 Seats BJP 1 SP 2 BSP 4 RLD 1
Now
Bundelkhand:
Jalaon : 3 Seats INC 1 BJP 1 SP 1
Jhansi : 4 seats BJP 2 INC 1 BSP 1
Mahoba (Uma Bharti & Badshah Singh) 2 Seats BJP = 2
Banda : 4 Seats : BJP 3 SP 1
Fatehpur : BJP 4 SP 1 BSP 1
Now
Purvanchal
Allahabad : 12 Seats : BJP 6 BSP 5 INC 1
Varanasi : 8 seats : BJP 5 INC 1 (Ajay Ray) SP 1 Others 1
Devariya : 7 seats : BJP 1 INC 3 SP 2 BSP 1 (BJP’s Surya Pratap Shahi Losing)
Gorakhpur : 9 Seats ; BJP 5 SP 2 BSP 2
Baliya : 7 seats : BJP 3 BSP 2 SP 2
Ghazipur : (Arun Singh BJP) : 7 Seats : BJP 3 BSP 2 SP 2 Others 1
Basti : 5 seats : BJP 3 BSP 1 SP 1
Mirzapur : 5 Seats : BJP 2 SP 1 bSP 2 (Manoj Jaiswal & Om Prakash Singh from BJP, Shahar & Chunar)
Azamgarh : 10 Seats ; BSP 3 INC 1 ( Very much doubt if Ajay Naresh Yadav can defeat BJP candidate Virendra Yadav, Cousin Fight) BJP 1 SP 5
Siddharth Nagar : 5 Seats : BJP 2 SP 1 BSP 2
Jaunpur : 9 seats : BJP 3 BSP 4 SP 1(Parasnath Yadav) Others 1
Mau : BSP 3 SP 1
Kavi Sant Das Nagar : 3 seats : BSP 2 SP 1
Disclaimer : After analysis on every seat in UP, I can with authority say that this is the worst possible scenario for BJP, and best possible scenario for Congress. With some amount of certainty, I can ascertain this is the ground reality of Congress in UP. Yes, the Journalists predict numbers without knowning the Ground, I predict numbers along with the name of the probable winning Candidate and why He can win! Though I am an Economist by Profession and Statistics come quite naturally, I did this work for free! And I hope my friends enjoy reading it! I am free to every query!
For the Record, Has any psephologist in Media given seat by seat count of every region?
February 26, 2012 at 5:09 PM
Yes, Check this video link.
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/up-exit-poll-bsp-on-top-bjp-gains/39354-4.html
February 26, 2012 at 5:13 PM
Pls ignore the other link, that was mistake, here is seat by seat prediction on India TV , let me know what you think of this ,
http://www.indiatvnews.com/gallery/videos/Opinion_Poll_final_-3661.41.html
February 26, 2012 at 12:31 AM
@rk
wow, detailed analysis, brilliant
February 26, 2012 at 5:15 PM
Hi Chakresh,
I am not sure, if you have seen this video ? What is your opinion about this video ?
http://www.indiatvnews.com/gallery/videos/Opinion_Poll_final_-3661.41.html
Regards,
AK
February 26, 2012 at 5:51 PM
RK is giving around 95 seats to BJP, while almost everyone else is saying BJP wont even be able to retain the 51 seats it got lost time
February 26, 2012 at 6:27 PM
Looks like above poll given by rk is same as India TV poll.
which gave SP 155, BJP 87, BSP 81 and INC+ 60 seats
February 28, 2012 at 2:38 PM
This blog seem to be a politically correct one.I have stumbled upon this site during casual net surfing and it see to be a good site.I may be a bit late in posting my comment but i think the author has done a fantastic job in assessing a political minefield called Uttar Pradesh.Up is probably the only state which can a death bed for so called psephologists and political analysts.Indeed my detailed study of the ground situation in UP and the vast data i have gathered during last two months have almost matched with your findings .I have seen your posts in off-stumped and like your knack for political analysis.I will now elaborate and give a detailed analysis of my findings.
Dalits form 21% of the electorate in UP Jatavs the political backbone of BSP form 14% of the total electorate.The remaining dalits form around 7%.Jatavs have been main beneficiaries of maya rule .You go to any place in UP from kanpur to lucknow jatavs will be supporting only behenji.But they are fairly spread across UP and constitute 20000-30000 of the electorate in virtually all seats.BSP tight hold on jatavs means BSP starts with an advantage of 12-13% vote compared to its rivals.But this equal distribution of jatav population means mayawati has to depend on other castes to win most seats.
The non jatav dalits like pasis,dobhis etc are concentrated in some pockets particularly in eastern and central parts.They have not been staunch supporters of mayawati but have been generally supportive of BSP.Its this constituency that rahul gandhi has been eyeing with his dalit visits.
He seem to have succeeded to some extent as many non jatav dalits feel jatavs have economically prospered under maya while they have been left behind.Their votes are crucial as concentrated they are they can make crucial difference.This 7% constituency swung in a big way to congress in 2009 give it stunning edge along with muslim vote with a sparkling of MBC support.
Actually there was a little dip in(not much as made by media) jatav turnout in 2009 while non jatav turnout remained more or less the same.The non jatavs turned towards congress in a big way.
Coming to OBC and MBC they constitute altogether 45%.Yadavs are 8-10% mostly concentrated in eastern and central regions,kurmis7%,lodhs 5% largely in bundhelkhand.The remaining 20% belong to various castes and are refereed to as other OBCS and MBCS.They have little social affinity with upwardly mobile yadavs and kurmis.Instead their economic condition is closer to dalits.But the are not monolithic entity and dont vote like vote bank like yadavs,jatavs,kurmis do.SO the argument that they cemented congress victory in 2009 is wrong.They are mostly divided between BSP,BJP and SP although congress too managed a share of their vote in 2009.
This particular lack of unity and political cohesion among other OBCS and MBC is main reason why BJP and congress cant expect much from them electorally even though these castes think yadavs and kurmis are getting reservation benefits.
This election is basically a jatav versus the rest election.All other castes have one grouse or other against mayawati and she is losing their support leading to drastic reduction in her tally.The real gainer in this election is SP.Congress is getting a significant share of votes leading to decent rise in its over all vote share but that is not translating into huge seat gains as rahul gandhi and media were expecting..SP has done remarkably well in second,third,fourth and fifth phases and consolidated yadav-muslim-a section of upper caste vote behind it.
You hit-the nail in head when you say muslim reservation is non issue.BJP is in drastic decline across the state and it could see a dip in its seat share as higher castes have left it in significant numbers this time in favor of SP and congress.I will present the total gist of voting trends observed and the seat share of parties after sixth phase concludes
February 29, 2012 at 11:39 AM
After 6th Phase, the exit poll results will be up on all channels till counting.
March 1, 2012 at 11:18 AM
Hi Chakresh,
Are you coming up with any Post poll result on March 3rd evening? It would be nice to hear from you!!
March 3, 2012 at 1:01 AM
The author seems to be in a spite to make up for the wrongs of 2009, by being biased against BJP this time. Mark my words when I say BJP will definitely do much better than 2007. how many? In a 4 cornered fight, the number is tough, but it can be anywhere near 75-100. Why I say that? That is just from the fact that the goodwill for BJP has only increased across India in recent months. Its another matter that, they are not able to cash in on it. Had they done that, they would have ended up with 150 seats. Infact, if you observe the recent predictions from various sources, all seem to be just bracing themselves for a good BJP performance. Its another matter that they could not present as a viable alternative to BSP/SP and make a strong pitch for power. Anyways its in hours now. The big results day.
March 3, 2012 at 2:51 PM
We’ll have the exit poll results starting at 5:00 pm, I think they will be covering UP in phased manner tonight. Star is covering UP exit polls tonight and rest tomorrow.
March 3, 2012 at 8:21 PM
Watch out!!! Mayawati will be back again! With support from outside though.
March 3, 2012 at 10:28 PM
I think 1 thing is clear Congress has failed as per all exit polls, they are getting max 30-40 seats. It will be SP + Congress Govt in UP, which is not a bad scenario for BJP as it will be really prepared for 2014 Lok sabha elections.
March 5, 2012 at 3:47 PM
sorry to say for this prediction….403 is divided between top four group… no seats were left for others…. Peace Party, Kalyan Singh, Amar Singh, TMC, JDU, Ulema Council, Independents are drawing point blank…. It sounds ridiculous.. Others may get more than 30 seats….
March 5, 2012 at 7:11 PM
I still reiterate that Mayawati will be back! If she doesn’t make it then what will happen to the UPA! What if she withdraws the support to UPA?
March 5, 2012 at 9:32 PM
My final projections :
BSP just managed to stay afloat during the last 2 phases, while SP made smart gains especially in minority pockets. SP managed to sweep areas like Moradabad, Aligarh, Saharanpur, Rampur etc.
Expectations of Congress / RLD bombed during the last 2 phases but the party did managed to do well in urban areas. As a result, it could not carry on with the momentum it started with. In fact the gains posted in Awadh and Purvachal were neutralised by the below par performance in last 2 phases. Jat votes did not get transferred to INC and as a result the alliance lost around 20 seats, which it has expected to win in Western UP. These votes went mostly to SP.
BJP, as usual, failed miserably across the state. In fact it is losing in most urban areas including Noida, Ghaziabad, Meerut, Bareilley which were supposedly its strongholds. In fact BJP may draw a blank in Pilibhit due to tantrums of Varun Gandhi. Unconfirmed reports suggests that post 6th March, BJP is planning strong action against him for his remarks and non adherence to party discipline.
Though most of the media channels are agog with the revival of BJP, my analysis does not see anything of that sort. The only change from my earlier post dated 25th Feb, is that INC/RLD have failed to carry on with the momentum it started with. This has totally benefited the SP and BJP has been left out in the cold.
My final projected tally
SP : 230-235
BSP : 70-75
INC/RLD : 55-60 (RLD would get 11-13 seats)
BJP : 25-30
Others : 15-20
Let us wait till tomorrow.
March 5, 2012 at 11:35 PM
We will see to it tomorrow Mr Raja aka Bose!!
March 6, 2012 at 12:09 PM
In the morning, the initial trends showed that BJP would come out as the second Party in UP, however, by the middle of the day, BJP lost and ruined itself!!! Anyway, BJP and BSP share similar Vote Bank, and BJP Should successfully bring back the Votes it lost to BSP by 2014