Ground is prepared, crowd is in full enthu, umpires have given the signal, now everybody is waiting for the game to be started. Parties have announced most of their warriors for this mahabharat. For some it is the game of life and death, for some it is about a career, on the other hand some are just trying to reclaim their lost inheritence. Telling right from wrong is the most difficult part in this mahabharat and the only difference from blood thirstyness of kurukshetra and Uttar Pradesh election is that here we have four contenders of power instead of two and all of them fancy their chances. Let us examine the claims and ground reality of UP, which is going to polls next month.
If anybody who thinks that there is any other issue which is going to play an important role in this election than caste, he is certainly day-dreaming. However some possible issues that can swing a small percentage of population from one side to other are as followed
1. Corruption has created a general apathy towards BSP and INC.
2. Land aquisition issue has created a sense support for INC and RLD in western UP.
3. Muslims are again coming back to the fold of SP after return of Azam Khan.
4. Upper castes are again coming back to BJP and some are looking at INC as alternative.
5. The trick of division of UP can play in favour of BSP in bundelkhand and poorvanchal.
6. BSP is the best prepared and best organised party at grass-root level at the moment.
7. SP is fighting with the problem of leadership vacuum.
8. Hit and run strategy of Rahul Gandhi has created a lot of interest, but mind it, it is not vote.
9. BJP is still in bewilderment and not able to understand what to do.
10. Public is still not able to rise above caste politics, development is almost a non-issue.
In this way, if we summarize the situation in one line, “It is the race where no contender has any idea about how to win, all the injured and somehow race is changing into struggle about not to finish last”. Here is the analysis and prediction about result. Please understand that these are just predictions, and as we know, they never come true. So just enjoy, debate and have fun. Read the caste-wise analysis of current trend in UP here
Take a look at these related posts:
- UP assembly pre-poll prediction by Shiladitya Bose
- In UP, you don’t cast your vote but vote your caste – maya is coming back in 2012
- India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction
- Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 2
- Prepoll prediction by main stream media compilation
January 3, 2012 at 10:09 PM
I agree 90% with your Analysis. However, I think Mayavati is loosing on Brahmin vote, which is going to be split between Congress & BJP. Also the Muslim vote which went like 48% SP, 23% BSP 20% Congress in 2009 election will move away from BSP. I think Muslim vote is going to be 45% SP, 30% Congress-RLD, 16% BSP, even a 10% swing which combined with Jat vote in Western UP will mean, that Congress-RLD will dominate the region even ahead of SP.
Overall BSP will lose 2% to 3% Vs 2009 Loksabha, which will cost it the majority. I think SP votebase is stagnant, it may loose 1% – 2% non-Yadav OBC. The problem with SP is, it will never get the trust of Dalit, Brahmin and Thakurs. Also, Kurmis and other non Yadav OBC will never rally behind it the way Brahmins did for Mayavati.
BJP is getting back ~ 40% of Brahmin Votes, their core votebank remains non-Yadav OBC, lodh, Kurmis etc. The Entry of Uma Bharti has boosted the OBC vote towards BJP, I think if BJP can consolidate on non-Yadav OBC vote which is ~ 30%, it can turn around UP. However, after exit of Kalyan Singh, they don’t have a strong Face of OBC.
The Congress-RLD is fighting to get better of SP, so they can become key partner in state politics. Best Bet for Congress is that Congress-RLD, do better than SP, and are close to 100.
I think my take is BSP vote share will decline inspite of slog over batting against Corruption by Mayavati. Here is the predicted Vote Share for 2012,
BSP 25% (-5% Vs 2007), SP 22% (-4% Vs 2007), BJP 20% (+2% Vs 2007), INC 19% (+10% Vs 2007).
Western UP , Congress-RLD sweeps , SP & BSP loose.
Poorvanchal, BJP gains, still BSP leads
Avadh, Congress does better, but SP holds on
Bundelkhand, BSP holds on, Congress Gains
Seats Projected,
BSP – 135
SP – 90
Congress – 75
BJP – 60
RLD – 20
Others – 23
Congress defeats BJP for 3rd position, Congress-RLD better than SP, Strong Lobbying for others by Congress-RLD-SP(185) Vs BSP-BJP (195).
Match is going for Super Over.
January 3, 2012 at 10:46 PM
I think revival of congress depends a lot on the candidate selection. That was the main reason behind good performance by congress in loksabha election. The shows of Rahul baba are just a media tamasha. Even, Akhilesh Yadav’s yatra attracting a lot more crowd than him.
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January 10, 2012 at 10:33 AM
In 2002, the vote was against BJP and BSP. There was no Congress during that time. SP won 140 seats with 25% votes. I consider, that was the time when SP peaked. In 2007, the vote was against SP and BSP got 30% votes and won 202 seats. That was when BSP peaked. There was no Congress in 2007 also. BJP was the main looser in both 2002 and 2007.
From the above trends, we can predict that, If SP peaks, it can only get 25% votes not more than that. Currently, Congress is also one of the main contender. Congress will eat majority of SP and little of BSP vote share(Muslims from SP, Brahmins from BSP and Kurmis from SP).
The case with BJP is so curious. Normally, everyone predicts before polls that BJP will be the gainer(Remember, in 2207, pre polls prediction was that BJP will stood 2nd position). Now, everyone is saying BJP will confine to the 4th position. I guess, BJP might surprise everyone this time by getting the second position. Upper castes are firmly with BJP currently. There is lot of resentment among OBCs for giving reservations to muslims from their quota!! So, Non Yadav OBCs will come to BJP this time in a big way. A section of yadavs also vote for BJP this time. MBCs will come to BJP as BJP promised them quota with in quota for them. Kushwaha episode was a media gymmic to alienate the upper caste vote. However, if it affect 2-3% upper caste vote, it will bring 4-5% OBC vote.
BJP is currently following Raman singh approach. Give maximum seats to OBC and declare a upper caste fellow as CM candidate. with 10% upper caste vote, 15% Non Yadav OBC vote, BJP should get 120-130 seats.
Congress is banking on Media Hype. it does not have any organization in UP!! It may get 80-90 seats or confine to 40-50 seats.
The biggest looser this time is SP!! Not only it is loosing Muslims but also Yadavs due to Muslim reservations.
Jats are coming to BJP in a large number. They are against the Muslim reservations. This is affect RLD and Cong in western UP!!
BSP has its core vote base. It will always win 90 seats in any case. if it manages other castes, it will win another 30-40 seats.
January 13, 2012 at 6:10 PM
Mayawati was born on January 15,1956.
Her birth number is 6.
As the birth number is 6,Mayawati is influenced by numbers 3,6 and 9.
At the first time,she was sworn in as chief minister onJune 3.
For the second time,it was on March 21(2+1=3).For the 3rd time,it was on May 3.At
the time of becoming CM for the 4th time she was 51 years.
She is now the 32nd CM of UP.
If her party wins a majority,she will head the 33rd government.
Number 33 is lucky for her as it adds up to 6.
The election is for the constitution of the 16th assembly.
This number does not harmoniously vibrate with Mayawati.
Victory in election cannot be predicted by lucky number of one leader alone!
The lucky numbers of other political parties and leaders are also to be taken into account.
So,this is only a hint.
The present assembly is the 15th one.
That is equal to the birth date of Mayawati.
The BSP has 219 members(2+1+9=12,1+2=3).
It may be noted that the last time she became CM by the strength of her own party.
January 18, 2012 at 1:07 PM
Oh, so BJP is still lagging and it would once again be a Hung? If so, BJP Should keep the Alliance with BSP atleast until 2014 elections(for sure, there would be BJP-BSP Alliance) or if congress forms an Alliance with BSP it would be a disaster
January 18, 2012 at 1:14 PM
To AK and Bala, Brahmins in UP Would not vote for congress . Also, Brahmins might come back to BJP. UP has 5% Kshatriya, 65 Baniya and 9% Brahmin,2% Kayasth Population. Along with these upper caste, if Lodh, Kurmi and non Yadav OBCs pile up and vote enmass to BJP, BJP has a chance.
Jats would go with congress (a real mess done by BJP as they have let off RLD to part with NDA)
23% of Dalits are solidly with BSP
12 % Yadav Population and 18% Muslim Electorate would be solidly behind SP
However, it is to be noted that, Muslims vote tactically to any candidate congress, bsp,sp depending on their ability to defeat BJP candidate
January 19, 2012 at 10:21 AM
Kurmi are now with Congress!! This is a set back to BJP!! They were with BJP as Yadavs are with SP!! Now, due to Beni Prasad verma, they shifted their loyalty to Cong as Cong may project Beni as the CM candidate!! Cong is desperately looking for Muslim-Kurmi combination.
Can some one tell me the effect of Uma in UP? Yesterday, BJP announced her candidature for assembly elections. Can she able to pull good percentage of OBCs?? Whats the Lodh population percentage in UP?
Also, Can kalyan damage BJP substantially in UP? I guess, Lodhs are still with him. If this is the case, can Uma pull Lodhs to her side as she is also a Lodh??
January 20, 2012 at 6:40 PM
Uma Bharti’s candidature is surely going to win back lodh voters in central UP and bundelkhand. Kalyan’s party got 4% votes in last election. In this election, as far as my knowledge goes, he is concentrating on 4-5 seats (for his family member) and leaving the rest open for BJP.
However the issue of muslim reservation within OBC quota can pull substantial muslim votes towards Congress and OBC votes (lodh, kurmi) away from it. BJP is now concentrating on this issue very aggressively in kurmi/lodh dominante areas. Lets see how all this pan out
January 29, 2012 at 9:11 AM
Actually, it all depends on how the effectively parties campaign at grass root level,
Congress is definitely making dent into Muslim Vote and SP is getting desperate that they even got Imam Bhukari to start campaigning for them.
Any feedback on Effectiveness of Grass root campaign of BJP to target OBC vs Muslim Reservation ? This will really determine where BJP ends up in vote share as OBC are nearly 40% of UP population. It can effectively change position of BJP between 1 to 4.
January 20, 2012 at 6:54 PM
Since Dr. Subramanyam Swami’s petition on EVM is approved by the court and the court has asked ECI to hold consultation on it. Also since ECI has promised SC that it will provide paper receipt from EVM, Now the Congress game is almost over. If paper receipt policy decision is implemented before this month end then congress may not get more than 20 seats in UP. If not then I agree with authors estimate of 70-80 seats. Just enough to pave the way for Amulbaby’s coronation.
January 20, 2012 at 7:42 PM
Today is 20 Jan 2011. I’ve been watching this election campaign both on TV and in field as well. I am afraid that congress will face complete defeat even worst than before. The reason I have to tell you is that the Crowd gathering for Congress & BJP is very very poor. This is visible even on News channels where they keep projecting only Rahul’s face and not crowd. Where as the crowds for that lady is just unimaginable. Seems like whole India is in front of her. So huge ! Unimaginable. The fate of SP’s campaign result is no less than Congress or BJP. They have been able to pull crowds in only very few pockets. I will be never be surprised if that lady’s BSP gains all 300 seats. Coz, that the action goin on in field.
January 22, 2012 at 7:31 PM
Well Tariq, let me tell you one thing. The core vote of BSP is Dalits and they gather like anything for any of their caste/party sammelans!! Dalits are very hard core castiest people in India. They just vote/support anyone who belongs to their caste. This is not at all wrong. History made them like that. Unity is their strength. Thats why Politicians are licking the boots of Ambethkar to simply keep the dalits in good humor!! Well, The next community which stand united is Muslims
!!
Only Dalits can not give Maya 200 seats!! They can only give her 100 seats solidly. So, Maya will never be out of picture in UP politics!!
In UP, Whatever cong gains is the loss for SP. Whatever BJP gains is the loss of BSP!!
So, if Cong and BJP performs well means, SP and BSP can not get magic figure!!
By this time, UP people must have made up their mind. Lets wait for March 6!!
In my prediction, BJP should gain from 2007!! Based on my calculation, BJP wil be at 70-80 which is good.
Cong and RLD will be 50-60!!
January 23, 2012 at 9:57 AM
Hi Chakresh,
Have you considered Uma factor while projecting the seats on your pre poll analysis?
You mentioned that Kurmis are 12% in UP. However, I read somewhere, they are 3-4% in UP?
What I strongly believe is that, its not only caste factor but, a general feeling of the people to vote for a particular party that needed. Have you seen any such general mood in the people of UP?
What about the recent Rajnath son’s issue? I think, Rajnath again started playing his politics.
January 29, 2012 at 9:23 AM
Hi Bala,
His analysis was before entry of Uma into UP Politics, so things would have changed by now.
Well, there is no direct vote trade off in UP, it is very circular in nature,
If it happens,
Congress Muslim Vote gain loss for SP & BSP (BSP got 25%, SP 48%). Congress gain of non-Jatav Dalit is loss to BSP. Congress gain of Kurmi is loss to BJP.
If it happens,
BJP Brahmin gain is loss to BSP which is almost certain(In 2007 there was heavy polarization towards BSP), BJP gains some Yadav Votes (as Yadavs the dominant OBC will be worst effected with Muslim Reservation) it is loss to SP(12% Vote Share), BJP Lodh Vote gain is Loss to Kalyan Singh Party (This is certain after Uma Entered UP Polls).
The Peak for SP is 25-26% , BSP 30%, BJP & Congress can gain based on how effective Campaign they run.
January 24, 2012 at 3:50 PM
Today i read u’r articles on UP assembly elections 2012, and i totally agree with you. but i think this time no one can gets complete seats to make a government in lukhnow. well i think {BJP-BSP) will come and join to make a government in UP.
Surely BSP will the get the first position and SP and BJP gets 2nd and 3rd respectively.
i request to you please give me some articles on elections issues in UP like caste, religious, development , etc. on my e mail ID sdr.sohansingh@gmail.com & as-roma@clubabhishek.in
January 25, 2012 at 8:20 AM
Dear Chakresh, Lodhs constitute only 3% of UP, then how come their vote share account for 4%
Jats and Kurmis seem to be firmly behind congress.
muslims vote enmass to a Candidate who can defeat BJP and not to A Party.
dalits will be with maya even if rahul marries a dalit girl
OBCs will not vote for BSP
so if maya loses upper castes Votes, then her tally will come down
January 29, 2012 at 9:27 AM
Muslim vote is effective in Western UP, where they have over 30% share in 80 Constituenties, not so effective in other parts.
As far as Jat & Kurmis are concerned, I think they are getting divided, with Anuradha Chaudhary of RLD joining SP . Still a big chunk will go to RLD-Congress, BJP & SP the rest.
January 25, 2012 at 8:23 AM
Mr. Bala, if BSP gets around 150-170 seats and congress-RLD and some independents 50-60 then, it’s obvious congress-RLD would make maya the CM of UP to earn back the support of BSP to save UPA II as Mamata may ditch congress on price-hike to have her sway in Bengal
January 25, 2012 at 10:03 AM
Hi Raj,
I know that Cong is open for either SP or BSP. They fell that SP is more reliable than BSP. That’s exactly why BJP is saying that i will sit in opposition no matter what in case it doesnt get majority!!! For BJP, the target is 2014 not 2012!! BJP is testing the grounds in UP for 2012!! It will let Uma roam deeply in UP to garner the support of OBCs for 2014!!
Kurmi factor might hurt BJP deeply. They were with BJP once and now, if they support Cong means, Cong will gain the seats where Kurmis are high in number!! There are almost 100 seats where Kurmis are good in numbers!! Cong can potentially win these sits with the help of Kurmi+Muslim combination.
Jats+Muslims can give Cong and RLD 50 seats solidly.
Does this means that Cong+RLD will get more than 100 seats?? In that case, BJP can only get 50 odd seats!!
Can some one explain this please??
January 25, 2012 at 4:36 PM
Dear Bala, Kurmi’s are good in number in about 100 seats doesnt mean they alone determine the factor right? the most grab 80-100
inc-RLD Combine can get 60-70 seats
since Rajputs arent with SP anymore, Amar Singh factor is missing 4 SP, SP is left with MY combination, SP can easily win 80-90 seats
I feel BJP Can atthe most grab 80-100 seats
BSP will clearly get 150-170
but, A Website I follw(Politics Party) says BSP would get full majority again
January 25, 2012 at 8:10 PM
I even read Politics party regularly. He doesn’t seem correct.
So, Based on the above comments let me summarize:
1)Dalits are with BSP solidly.(18%) Cong(2%)
2)Yadavs are with SP solidly(9%)
The above two castes are core voters of the respective parties.
3)60% Brahmins are with BJP(6%), 30% Cong(3%), 10% BSP(1%)
4)70% Baniyas are with BJP(2%), 20% BSP, 10%Cong
5)60% Thakurs are with BJP(4%), 30% SP(2%) and 10% Cong(0.5%)
Now OBCs
6)60% Lodhs are with BJP (2%), 30%Cong(1%), 10%BSP
7)20% kurmis are with BJP(1%), 60% Cong(3%), 20%SP(1%)
8)50%Kushwahas are with BJP(1.5%), 50% BSP(1.5)
9)70% MBCs are with BJP(3%), 30% BSP(1.5%)
10) Muslims -> 60%SP(12%), 30%Cong(5.5%), 10% BSP(1.8%)
11)75% jats are with RLD+Cong(3%) 25% with BJP(0.5%)
Now grand total
BJP: 20%
BSP:24%
SP:24%
Cong+RLD:17.5%
1)SP and BSP neck and neck and SP will have advantage over BSP as its vote share is concentrated in UP!! SP will sweep few districts.
2)Cong+RLD will have advantage over BJP as its vote share is also concentrated.
3)1-2% swing of OBCs to SP will make lot of difference which likely to happen.
How this sounds??
January 29, 2012 at 9:44 AM
Yes, I agree with you Analysis Bala, I think SP will end up at 135-140 and Congress-RLD at 55-60 , and they’ll form Govt along with few Independents.
Rahul will insist on Akhilesh being CM (like he did for Omar Abdulla) and Mulayam will join Central Govt, BSP will pull support from Central Govt, TMC will pull out of the UPA Govt at Center and expell Congress minsters in WB.
Mulayam will become next Railways Minister. Congress will give CBI go ahead to pursue cases against Mayavati and BSP.
2014 Maya and Mamta will be back with NDA, will be 1st election where there will be direct contest in 80 seats of UP between UPA & NDA.
January 30, 2012 at 4:32 PM
good assessment but except muslims and yadavs,sp is not going to get even 10%.this reduces vote share by 2%.if congress gets few more muslim votes,sp vote share reduces to 21%.this gives clear lead to bsp.sp will be worst sufferer in this poll in last 20 years.rld will not get more than 10 in any case.congress may get few more in purvanchal and central but will stand to lose heavily in cities gained in 2007/2009.my cal bsp-170.bjp-90,sp-70 and cong-45.
January 25, 2012 at 9:46 PM
It would be a disaster if Brahmins votr 4 congress
when will those dumbos realize voting 4 congress is voting for death
January 26, 2012 at 9:41 AM
Raj..you need to understand the politics better.
You know why BSP won 202 seats in 2007?
Maya virtually told its Upper caste candidates that ‘Hey…I have 20% strong vote bank. You give support to me…and you will win with my Dalit votes’. So, Upper castes with smaller percentage ‘won’ seats with the help of Dlait votes.
For example, A brahmin/Thakur BSP candidate, will win easily if His caste people votes for him. Maya ensures that the Dalits will vote for him no matter what. So, That Bhrahmin/Thakur candidate needs to only concentrate to get his community support which he will get easily as his ‘Winning chances’ are so bright!!
This is what SP/Congress are trying to do. They just wnat to use Muslims as their base vote so that if the respective caste people vote for him, he will win easily.
But, Advantage of Maya is, No one is competing for Dalit votes. But, SP, BSP and Congress are trying for Muslim votes!! Of course, Muslims vote enblock to a candidate who can defeat the BJP candidate!!
This is the serious disadvantage for BJP. NO strong Base vote bank!! They can’t stand on Upper castes as they don’t vote for them enblock and they can’t be trusted too!! They simply vote for their caste candidate from other party!! So, BJP is trying for Non yadav OBCs are the base vote this time!! Of course, many people are competing for Non Yadav OBCs.
In 1991, BJP won 220 seats simply because, All Hindus simply, blindly vote for BJP irrespective of caste because of Polarization. That kind of situation is not there now!! So, BJP can never win UP!! Only it can hope to win 60-70 seats with its core supporters.
But, the sad news is that, Cong is over taking BJP as it is getting Muslim support. That is worrying BJP more than its defeat!!
January 29, 2012 at 10:07 AM
Hi Bala & Raj,
In 2007 elections, BSP went all out to woo Brahmin votes by highlighting victimization of Brahmins & Dalits under SP Rule, so they voted in Block for BSP, irrespective of candidate caste/religion.
In India, people don’t vote for someone, but mostly they vote against some grude. Dalits vote against grude of being neglected by everyone till BSP focused on them, Muslims in UP vote against BJP depending on who is suitable, Yadavs vote against congress for Keeping Power of UP Politics in Upper Caste till 70′s.
Now, with everyone getting empowered and getting share in Politics, Power and Economic Development opportunities, these feelings are less sever. Dalits are latest to join, so still they are solidly behind BSP. This will wane out in next few elections and hopefully, UP will do a Bihar where someone will win election based only on Development.
January 29, 2012 at 12:41 PM
I have no idea if Media is hyping Congress or Congress is really in a good position in UP!! May be some one from UP can tell us the ground reality!!
What media is saying is that, Cong is going to sweep Kurmi and jat dominated seats with the help of Muslim votes!! Kurmis and Jats are with Congress completely in about 150 seats(100 seats Kurmis and 50 seats jats) and Cong can potentially win these seats. If cong can manage another 20-30 seats from other areas, then, cong+RLD wik 100-120 seats in UP!!! Is it true??
Media is saying BJP is in ICU in UP!! It may not even win 30-40 seats!! Its manifesto is complete failure and it went to Ram temple as there is no real issue for it to mobilize the voters!! Is it also true that there is no wave for BJP in UP?? The real fight is among Cong, BSP and SP and SP!!
Is this all media hype or reality?? Rajnath is now not campaigning as his son was denied ticket!! Kalraj was furious over Uma’s entry!! Vimay Katiyar is also furious about Uma!! Modi won’t campaign due to Sanjay Joshi!! Sushma wont campaign due to Modi!! What the hell is going on with BJP???
January 30, 2012 at 5:36 PM
Another Important thing I observed is that, the people for the Mulayam Rallies are very huge!! Very very huge!! I am not seeing that kind of turn out for Rahul and Uma rallies. Ofcourse, For Maya also, the people comes very huge!!
Why this is the case?? Can we predict that, Mulayam is all set to grab the Govt or all those who came for his rallies are paid ones?
February 1, 2012 at 7:04 PM
Hi,
I have watched Ghamasan Live on India TV. What I observed is that, there is huge anti incumbency towards Maya’s rule!! people are just hating BSP Govt!!
People are equally hating Congress for their rule at the center!! People are asking about what Cong has done to them as they are ruling center??
So, it looks like the maximum beneficiary is going to be SP!! BJP seems weak over there.
February 2, 2012 at 1:09 PM
If Internet users and TV Critics views have to be considered, BJP would have a Whooping Majority. But, those who attend TV Debates (even as common public) are those who are otherwise armchair critics. These people never vote and therefore, I wont go by the Ghamasan and so on. however, if SP is drawing Huge crowds, then for sure, Mulayam would be the leader.
Regarding Maya, BSP will always come strong with 120-140 seats(Worst Case Scenario) as she has 23% of the Electorate (Dalit Votes) strongly behind her.
February 4, 2012 at 3:20 PM
Latest poll based on Opinion of 75 Senior Hindi district by district, comparing real candidates on the ground, which is much better than poll put by Star-Neilson which just looks as numbers and not the ground reality. The Star opinion poll says Uma will loose and BJP will be 0 in Bundelkhand.
Check the video here,
http://www.indiatvnews.com/gallery/videos/Opinion_Poll_final_-3661.41.html
Yes, SP is biggest gainner with 155 seats, but surprisingly BJP is reaching No2 with 100+ seats and BSP is third and congress & RLD distant 4th with 60+ seats.
If this is true, then it is Big win for SP and even bigger for BJP and major loss for Congress & BSP.
February 2, 2012 at 1:17 PM
As someone pointed out, BJP should try and Consolidate the votes of non yadav OBCs to gain Delhi ki Gaddhi in 2014 general Elections!!!
At the Most BJP can get 80-90 seats.
In addition to Brahmins, Baniyas; BJP must also consolidate Rajput,Khayast Votes amongst the upper castes and Lodhs, Kushwahas, other MBC. In addition if BJP gets Kurmis and Jats into it’s fold, BJP Can get 30-35 seats in 2014 Lok Sabha Elections
February 3, 2012 at 9:20 AM
Well these are the predictions from ground:
1)There is a clear mobilization of OBCs towards BJP in UP.
2)Muslims havn’t been attracted to Cong as the Cong expected. This is a serious set back to Cong.
3)Uma factor is working for BJP. She is pulling good crowds. Some feel that, BJP would have been announced Uma’s candidature very earlier.
4)Kushwaha’s episode is helping BJP. Now, MBCs are thinking that other political parties are taking away their reservations and they are moving towards BJP.
5)Maya is fast loosing the ground. There is a clear and visible ani incumbency for her. But, Dalits are more or less with her solidly.
6)Surprisingly, Brahmins are moving towards Cong than BJP. This is a serious set back for BJP.
7)BJP is clearly is in good position to grab the third position.
8)The upper caste BJP leaders are very upset over induction of Uma. They may damage BJP’s prospects in UP.
February 3, 2012 at 3:10 PM
Well, BJP doesnt have a Brahmin Leader!!!! Kalraj Misra and Lal Ji Tandon have No mass base!!! Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi had been sidelined for long!!!! Atal Ji is now retired!!! Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley are good enough to be Armchair Politicians!!!
February 4, 2012 at 3:38 PM
I was in my village few days ago. A Brahmin dominated, BJP supporter village. Somebody remarked, “Atal mein jaan thi, tab tak BJP damdaar thi, ab Atal bimaar toh BJP bimar, kal jab Atal ji marenge, BJP mar jayegi UP mein”
February 4, 2012 at 12:14 PM
good
February 4, 2012 at 3:35 PM
February 4, 2012 at 2:26 PM
Hi Chakresh,
Can you tell us the latest trends in UP? As we are very close to the voting, your projects might be make more or less make sense.
February 4, 2012 at 3:30 PM
Clear trends as can be seen or understood by talking to men on street are as followed
1. Definitive anti-incumbency against Maya. Even SC voters other than Jatavs are looking for alternatives. If some party has given ticket to a non-Jatav SC candidate, they are in mood to ditch Maya.
So Maya is surely going to loose very hard (maybe around 110 seats)
2. Yadavs and a large part of Muslims are strongly behind Mulayam. But in urban areas people are still very afraid of his gundaraj. SP is expected to gain heavily on anti-maya planck specially in poorvanchal and yadav belt in central UP.
So he might cross (120-130 seats).
3. BJP is not showcasing that kind of fight as one had hoped. If they can position themselves as anti-maya party and make ppl believe that they will not support Maya after election. They can gain easily.
But on current lines BJP seams below 100 (around 90 seats)
4. Congress is not doing very good as shown by media channels regularly. They are not gaining muslim votes or OBC votes as they proclaim. But Brahmins are in some places turning towards them, so is Thakurs. RLD will gain by pact with INC, but reverse is not that easy. RLD vote is very notorious for not voting to party in alliance. Jats will vote to a jat candidate, not to any party.
So INC-RLD can get (60 & 15-20 seats respectively)
Also the most important factor is that in rural areas people vote for their caste and local influential leader, not for any party. So whichever party can micro-manage the election better, can get a large number of seats. Because every vote is going to count this time
February 4, 2012 at 3:35 PM
Also as everybody knows and expects, most plausible scenario is SP-INC alliance forming government after election. They will definitely ditch RLD, if they get 200 seats combined.
And after that a large number of BSP MLAs will leave Mayawati, afterall they have to generate that much money, which they have lost in buying BSP tickets and gifting things to Madam
February 4, 2012 at 7:50 PM
I don’t think think Congress will ditch RLD as it is going to get tougher in Central Govt, BSP and TMC are surely going to withdraw support from UPA and even DMK giving strong hints of serving ties. So Congress will definitely try to keep every vote they can.
This will surely draw battle lines for 2014 Lok Sabha Elections.
February 4, 2012 at 7:59 PM
Any Idea on difference in Urban Constituencies Vs 2007 seats, due to Delimitations.
I think many have not included the impact of Dilimitation on this UP election as Urban seats will get bumpted up and as you know, the urban voter votes differently. This will have many BJP-Congress fights in those constituencies.
February 4, 2012 at 10:16 PM
I cant believe Uma is loosing. I heard that Charkari is one sided battle. Uma is surely going to win. 60K Lodhis and 40K Brahmins and 20K Kushwahas will make her win…
80K Dalits, 20K muslims, 20K yadavs on opposite side.
kalyan’s party would harm Uma??
February 4, 2012 at 11:02 PM
Uma Bharti will win her seat very easily, But her influence on others lodh dominated seats is not very superlative. Kalyan Singh is still a force in 4-5 district in south-western UP (Etah, Aligarh, Mainpuri, Firozabad, Kasganj etc)
February 5, 2012 at 1:44 AM
What is wrong with this Kalyan? He was once BJP CM and CM candidate in 2007 elections…and now damaging BJP!!
Instead, he would have asked a nice post for his son and merge his party into BJP!!
well, If Lodhs are not with BJP, How on earth BJP can win 80 seats?? Lodhs are very crucial for BJP.
February 5, 2012 at 8:37 AM
well, is Kalyan even in fray? I dont think, Kalyan is any force and Lodhs would rally behind him if he has not alligned with any Party. SP and INC keep him away for Muslim Votes.
Lodhs blindly cant vote for Kalyan’s Party but would rather see, who is the winning Candidate.
Amar Singh, Kalyan Singh are spent forces and will be damp squids in 2012.
February 5, 2012 at 10:59 AM
What heard from a new channel is that, this time, people will vote for the candidate rather than a party(This theory excludes for Dalits). Hence, this time we might see very fractured result. Thats exactly why Nitin showed lot of interest in choosing the candidates.
From a credible source, I heard that, Yadavs will vote for BJP yadav candiate this time as they are very angry over Minority quota. This is a huge success for BJP.
I fail to understand, why yogi supporting his candidates over BJP’s candidates in some seats. Is this not betraying the party!! why not action against him??
February 5, 2012 at 10:48 PM
BJP is coming second in UP.
http://www.sunday-guardian.com/buzzword
A state intelligence survey says that the BJP might emerge second in the race and the Congress third. The BSP might slip to the fourth position, while the Samajwadi Party is likely to come to power with a majority.
MMS is preparing for Mid term elections too.
February 7, 2012 at 10:32 AM
Hi,
Another pre poll prediction for UP 2012:
http://www.lensonelections.com/lensonarticles/2/58/1665/1/sp-frontrunner-in-up-poll-battle-bsp-in-struggle-for-2nd-place.html
This guy is predicting that there is a clash between BJP and BSP over second place.
February 7, 2012 at 6:18 PM
Well, BJP Seems to be an underdog in this election.
February 8, 2012 at 10:05 AM
And where exactly BJP can get vote, I can’t see. There is a lot of goodwill for BJP in public but that is not going to convert into votes very easily
I am taking part in campaigning for Dr. Devendra Sharma, BJP candidate from Mathura and situation seems good here.
February 8, 2012 at 8:35 PM
Hi Chakresh,
Any trends based on the phase I polling? Is 65% voting good turn out? Are you still with your early assumption that BJP will get around 90 seats?
February 9, 2012 at 1:52 PM
Let me give you an advise. Stick to technology. Politics,sir,unfortunately does not seem to be your forte.Please visit the ground as whatever Kiran Bedi says people are doing exactly the opposite.BJP is fighting to cross 50 seat mark and BSP is not getting more than 100,SP is not getting more than 150,CONG. is showing remarkable improvement.
February 9, 2012 at 5:50 PM
Are you saying to me or Chakresh…
One this is clear sir, BJP is going to win more seats than Cong…This is for sure…
February 10, 2012 at 12:55 AM
Dear Ajay,
If you are basing your views on TV channel news, then Congress is going to win a Landslide victory. Priyanka Gandhi who has not even covered 10 assembly seats, has got so much coverage, as if this is the deciding moment in UP election and he is winning the state for Congress.
Second 65% in round 1 vs 47% in 2007, boss, the best vote polled till date was 58% in 1993 and we all knows who swept the polls. Same in 1999 lok sabha election , high voting % always helps BJP, and low voting % is bad for them as in 2004. I still think it will be SP at No. 1 position with 150+ seats, but BJP might land up close 2nd with 120+ seats.
Congress will not even win 30 seats, the CM candidate for them Mr Beni Parsad Verma lost election in 2007 and I don’t know if they can place bet on anyone except in Amethi and Rae Bareli Area.
February 10, 2012 at 12:14 PM
Hi AK,
I am re posting your first message predictions
Seats Projected,
BSP – 135
SP – 90
Congress – 75
BJP – 60
RLD – 20
Others – 23
Now you are saying BJP 120!!! Any reasons??
February 11, 2012 at 12:12 PM
Hi Bala,
A lot has changed since then, because congress is publicly going after Muslim votes, see the statements made by Salman Khurshid on 9% quota, Batla House Encounter, so the Brahmin vote is moving mostly to BJP and SP from BSP. Even Muslims are sceptical about Congress and are going to stick to SP, the 30% Muslims who voted for BSP , most will vote for SP very few will go with Congress.
So Congress is not getting much headway with either Muslim or Brahmin votes, and even the Congress Strategy of Mission 85 for the SC seats has not taken off, as still 80% of Jatav dalit and 60% of non-Jatav (Pasi, Valmiki,dhobi etc) are behind BSP.
So, the perception in Media is very pro-Congress and anyone who looks at Hindi or English news get the same feeling.
A weak congress means a strong SP, also with Brahim vote of ~ 4-5% moving to BJP and strong OBC backing, BJP will nearly 22%, however there seats will be higher as BJP votes are concentrated unlike BSP which is uniformly spread.
It is still tough fight for 2nd position between BJP & BSP and 1-2% votes can change seats dramatically. But remember, Mayavati won 30% of 46% votes polled in 2007 ~ 13.8% of total Voter in UP, and this is her best, as BSP has never crossed 20% earlier. With higher votes, is either for very good governance of against worst governance, and I am sure 64% in phase I is for the latter condition. Biggest beneficiary of this will be SP & BJP as they are vertically split in Ideology, as SP has occupied political space vacated by Congress in state and it is impossible for Congress to comeback as long as SP is there.
This is big surprise in this election.
February 10, 2012 at 5:29 AM
In Previous Elections too, The TV Channels said, BSP Can never come to Power on its Own!!! But, Maya Won on Her Own!!!
The TV Channels are usually Bribed By Political Parties. Particularly by INC.
Last time around(in 2007), BJP was Hyped a lot, which led to tactical voting by many muslims to vote for BSP in place of congress or SP. This time, TV Channels are saying BJP is almost finished (based on 2009 Poll Results) and are forgetting The Ground Work done by Kumari Uma Bharathi. Kumari Uma Bharathi is very much aware of Social Engineering and Micro Management. In largely undeveloped state such as UP, it’s Not The Larger picture voters look for but, the micro management of each single constituency and careful selection of Candidates after a thorough Social Engineering.
congress, is probably living in Fools Paradise as did BJP in 2004
February 10, 2012 at 5:34 AM
The Best Possible Scenario in Case of Hung:
SP 120-130 Seats
BSP 110-120 Seats
BJP105-115 Seats
INC-RLD-45-50 Seats
We can see a lot of Tamasha then.
In this case, INC-RLD-SP combine still cannot form a government, nor can BSP-INC-RLD Combine!!!
However, if BJP Joins hands with BSP, then it would lead to complete Disaster for BJP. BJP Can then demand, anyone other than Maya is acceptable as CM(A Non Jatav Dalit), BSP Would not and this would lead to President’s Rule, and before the Next elections, BJP can gain more ground by engineering Non Jatav Da;lits into it’s fold
February 11, 2012 at 12:25 PM
I think you are underestimating SP, they’ll surely cross 150 seats and touch ~ 160, I think most likely scenario is,
SP (160) + Congress (30) + RLD(15) will form Govt, and SP will join Congress in Center. BJP has said they’ll not join either SP/BSP govt, I think there is a tactical reason behind that.
Because once Congress-SP formally join together, they’ll have seat sharing in 2014 Loksabha elections , and BJP will become default opposition (not BSP) as not all Congress Vote will move to SP, but will get split between Congress-SP alliance and BJP so even if BJP gains 7% (assuming Congress gets 15% in 2012 assembly election) of Congress votes, and BJP gets 22% in 2012 assembly, its combined vote share of 29% will take BJP to 2nd position in triangular fight with BSP and since BJP vote is concentrated unlike BSP, BJP can hope to win 25-30 seats lok sabha seats.
For BJP most important political election is 2014 and they are willing to let go small gains for that.
February 11, 2012 at 6:36 PM
well, BJP Should sit in Opposition, any move by BJP to form Govt/be a part of it would be devasting for BJP Nationwide!!! BJP should concentrate on 2014 and has to improve tally now.
so, although SP+INC+RLD is insidious to UP, that would do good for BJP by the time People vote for 2014 General Elections to Lok Sabha.
so, I take back my words and the best possible/most probable scenario for coming UP Elections would be:
SP: 150-165 Seats
BJP: 95 – 105 Seats
BSP: 90-105 Seats
INC-RLD-Others: 40-50 Seats
A Fractured Verdict with INC-RLD-SP Combine will be of A Goonda Raj and People would cenrtainly Vote for BJP in subsequent Election, also BJP would get enough time for Social Engineering by Then
February 14, 2012 at 10:17 AM
If you closely observe Media analysis on Voting pattern of UP, What they are saying is that, ” the high turn out means, Middle urban class is coming out for voting..and they choose Rahul as he is young and energetic. So, Cong will do wonders in UP 2012!! In the past, High turn out helped BJP and now it will help Cong as there is no leader for BJP and BJP is almost dead in UP!!”
Almost all news papers, channels are saying the same thing!! I didn’t even come across single news channel which is saying BJP is coming back in UP!!
But, we are discussing that BJP is coming back…Are we saying all News channels are fools??
February 14, 2012 at 4:33 PM
News Channels are all bribed by Italian Mafia
Even in Tamil Nadu Elections, they prjected raul vinci as saviour
they will bite the dust, the news mafia I mean, they are trying to mislead People
February 14, 2012 at 5:58 PM
Honestly, In India the TV channel privatisation has happened so fast that any Tom , Dick and Harry has become TV commentator more so in Hindi and may be regional channels. Also, they use no scientific way of predicting the outcome.
All of us know, what they had predicted for UP assembly poll 2007, when there were under current in favour of BSP. Just some dickhead will start the rumor that this extra voting is helping Congress and Rest will follow. Tell me , when people has seen Comman Wealth Scan, Telecom Scam and Anna Hazare movement, No commitment to bring Black Money, people are not fools, they are human beings like up. The longer Congress stays in power (or any party which doesn’t do substantial work) people get fed up.
Every one in UP knows, that Rahul is barsati Mendak (Rain Season Toad) which will disappear after the election. Even Muslims are not voting for congress inspite of their advocacy for Quota. But one things the TV anchors do well is they build perceptions , so even a kid knows that there was Telecom scam of 170,000 crore although no one knows the detail.
I think middle class vote is against corruption, against black money , against inflation so this is against Congress, it is going to get split between SP & BJP, as Corruption means BSP in state and Congress in Centre for people.
Mark my word, SP 160, BJP 100+, BSP 85, Congress 30-40
February 14, 2012 at 8:48 PM
Man AK…you are changing your stance very often..
Just draw from your initial responses to this one….you will realize…
People’s mind wont change very drastically….usually, people make up their mind few months before the elections…
I am ardent supporter of BJP and I follow the UP news almost hourly basis and I cover all news channels….I didn’t find any single reference in any news channel/paper saying BJP is reviving….
Almost all are saying BJP hardly hit 60 mark.
Remember 2009? When people predicted 200 seats for BJP…I was also part of it…but at last BJP got 114 seats…I think, we are missing something in UP 2012!!
I guess, Yogendra Yadav correctly predicted last elections more or less…he will do post poll analysis…not pre poll…
What I understand from his words is that, Cong will surprise everyone…even congress iteself in this elections…I am waiting for his views on March 3.
Lets see…
February 16, 2012 at 6:06 PM
Hi Bala,
I think you didn’t read my previous post where I had provided link to this as well,
http://www.indiatvnews.com/gallery/videos/Opinion_Poll_final_-3661.41.html
The reason I believe this survey more than others, is due to the fact it is bottoms up based on real candidates unlike top down for others.
If you understand Hindi well watch India TV , Zee they are better than know Congress Proxy english channels of NDTV & CNN-IBN. So, Yogendra Yadav saying doesn’t surprise me. Tell me how can SP & Congress both do well, it is not possible as both are targeting Muslim votes. Only 1 party is talking about OBC and loss to their share by Muslim Reservation and voters are not that fools , they understand it better. I am sure, young are voting for BJP as it is out of power from Center and UP in last 7 years, where as rest all have long list of scams in Center and UP against their names.
February 16, 2012 at 10:34 AM
Hi,
Just watch this video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AhpECADwEWg
Yogendra Yadav is saying BJP can’t even hold the seats it has now!! Cong can emerge as the second largest party after SP!! BSP might slip to 3rd place.
I guess, He is very reputed psephologist!!
Are we discussing the same way we discussed during 2009 elections? Is BJP going to the 4th party in UP?
February 16, 2012 at 8:13 PM
AK, I know Hindi very well and I watched your Link. I was very happy by watching that video. Any BJP supporter will be happy
However, Please watch below link too:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AhpECADwEWg
And, I read comments on Off stumped blog as well. By those comments, I understood that BJP is routing in UP!!
You asked How come both SP and Cong will do better? What Yogendra saying is that, Upper castes are moving to Cong massively. This will damage BJP very hardly and Cong will perform very very well due to this factor.