Promise of Reason

As all of us know UP is the largest state in terms of no. of Lok sabha seats with 80 odd LS seats. The Lok Sabha (LS) elections in UP will be held in all five phases, in each phase approx. 16 seats will be voting, which is in the range of total no. of seats in moderate size states like Orissa (21), Kerala (20), Assam (14), Jharkhand (14), Punjab (13)= Total 82. So, in this way each phase of UP is equivalent to one of these states and total UP is equal to sum total of all these states approx.
I don’t want to overemphasize the political importance of UP, but presenting the sheer facts only. Unlike the popular concept of UP’s decisive role in Central politics (Delhi ka raasta Lucknow se hokar jaata hai, as commonly said); I am of the opinion after 1989 for last two decades the importance of UP in national politics has came down & down over the time. There are strong facts to support this view. Since 1991, any party who won majority seats in UP failed to form Govt. at centre or if made Govt. failed to continue significantly more than an year. Look at facts:

In 1991, riding over Ram Lahar and Ayodhya Movement BJP got majority in UP state assembly and formed state Govt. in UP for the first time in the simultaneously happened state Assembly Elections with the Lok Sabha. BJP won 51 (=60%) out of 85 LS seats in then undivided UP and become second largest party. But party had to sit in opposition in centre as main opposition party. The Congress which secured only 5 seats in UP formed the Govt. at Centre.

In 1996, BJP continued its hold over UP and increased its tally to 52 out of 85 and become single largest party in Lok Sabha. It formed the Govt. at centre under the leadership of Sh. Atal Behari Vajpayeeji for the first time. But this govt. could not survive and collapsed after 13 days because BJP could not muster majority. This time United Front formed the Govt. of which SP was a major constituent. SP was a distant second after BJP in terms of LS seats from UP.

In 1998, BJP gave its best performance in the state. It won +70% LS seats from the state with allies i.e. 60 out of 85 (BJP:57;Its allies:3). This time BJP succeed to form the Govt. at centre and prove its majority also. But this Govt. also fell after an year, over the loss of vote of confidence in Lok Sabha by 1 vote with AIADMK taking back its support.

In 1999, BJP could form the Govt. at centre with majority and served for the almost full term. But this was the election in which after a dream run for almost a decade in three subsequent Lok Sabha elections in UP of continuous improvement in tally, BJP suffered major reversals with its no. of seats coming down to as low as 25. It faced major losses to SP, BSP, Congress-RLD, who picked up as many as 26, 14, 9 & 2 respectively scoring a major improvement from their previous tally of 16, 4, 0 & 0 respectively. But none of these got any say in Govt. formation at centre.

In 2004, the role of UP further depleted to all time low. The Congress which formed the Govt. at centre came fourth in UP in 9 no. of LS seats and the third no. party BJP in UP with 11 LS seats with allies became the principal opposition. The SP-RLD alliance which came first bagging 38 out of 80 seats, found no takers at centre. Congress party formed Govt. with the support of Left parties, without seeking any help of SP or BSP.

Before this election the winner in UP got at least the role of opposition at centre, in this election it also lost this significance also. The number of ministers in Union Govt. was as low as below 4, with not even a single Cabinet minister in them. Even the state ministers were not holding independent charge. The states like Maharashtra (48), Andhra Pradesh (42), Bihar(40) and Tamil Nadu (39) had 8-8 ministers with many key cabinet portfolios. The UPA Govt. has done gross injustice to UP in this regard. This was the reason UP got step-motherly treatment in all areas of development and growth from the Central Govt.
Actually, for such a pathetic situation of UP, the people of UP are only to be blamed. They always get along with the party which was on the losing side at the national level. UP voters are always overwhelmed with the misconception of their over importance in national politics. (Delhi ka raasta Lucknow se hokar jaata hai, as commonly said.)They don’t go with the nation and always busy with national politics and give no importance to local issues. The political situations in UP have been in negative correlation with the nation’s mood over these two decades, by and large.

The media and environment also exaggerates the role of UP to add to their belief every time. It is actually the states of Maharashtra (48), Andhra Pradesh (42), Bihar (40), Tamil Nadu(39) and Karnataka (28); totaling 197 LS seats which finally decides the national outcome. As a result these states are real beneficiary in the Central Govt. power benefits, more than proportionately. The correlation of the political situation in this state has been in positive correlation with nation’s, which benefited them these two decades.

The common format is not applicable in UP, because there is no frame of NDA and main opponent, unlike other states. In most of the seats it is three cornered, in some it is four cornered also. However there are also few seats with direct contests and even five cornered contests. So each seat requires special treatment keeping in conjuction with the surrounding area seats. I will start structured analysis from the next post.