by Chakresh Mishra
Apr 7, 2009Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 2
- Maharashtra seatwise prepoll prediction by Arun Narendhranath
- Karnataka seatwise prepoll prediction by Shanthesh
- Andhra Pradesh & Telangana seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
- Assam seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros
- Rajasthan seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros
- Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 1
- Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 2
- 9 northern states prepoll prediction by raja
- Tamilnadu seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
- Pre-poll prediction after phase 3 by Shiladitya Bose
- West Bengal seatwise prepoll prediction by Sameer
Now coming to the structured analysis:
I will start from Western UP – Rohilkhand- Central Terai region covering Saharanpur, Meerut, Moradabad, Bareilly, Aligarh & Agra divisions. This region covers LS 32 seats. Out of this 32 seats, 5 LS seats are SC reserved: Nagina, Bulandshahr, Hathras, Agra, Shahjahanpur. In the remaining 27 seats, in 60% of them i.e. 16 seats there is atleast one Muslim candidate from SP, BSP or Congress+. In at least 6 seats, there are two Muslim candidates. Even the Muslim candidates from Congress are strong in this region to cut into Muslim votes. It is just a pity to do analysis based on total caste considerations, but Uttar Pradesh is like that only.
Polling will be held in IV & V phase in this region. BJP alliance has announced 26 candidates so far and 6 seats are remaining. BSP has announced candidates in all seats. SP has left 2 seats: Ghaziabad and Mathura for Congress, in remaining 30 seats they have annouced candidates. Congress has announced candidates in more than half LS seats and likely to support some smaller groups, Muslim leaders in some seats.
One very interesting thing, in Saharanpur,Moradabad, Bareilly, Aligarh Divisions and adjoining Meerut, Bulandshahr, Kannauj, Farrukhabad, Lakhimpur-Kheri, Sitapur seats totaling 24 seats: BSP has not fielded any Brahmin candidate and put up 7 Muslims. While BJP has already stood 3 Brahmins and likely to add one more Brahmin from any of 6 remaining seats.
Out of 26 announced candidates, BJP-RLD had carved a very nice caste combination. Out of 5 SC seats one is given to a Jatav (ashok Pradhan from Bulandshahr) and remaining four are given to various non-Jatav SCs. In remaining, there are 4 Brahmins (+1 or 2= 5 or 6 is expected in unannounced seats), 4 Thakurs, 2 Baniyas,1 Punjabi, 3 Jats (+1=4 is expected in unannounced seats), 1 Gujjar, 3 OBCs (1 or 2 more to be added) and 1 Muslim – Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi from Rampur
Well continuing with the analysis on UP:
Saharanpur Division & Moradabad Divisions will vote in V phase 13 May, 9 LS seats, namely Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnore, Nagina (SC), Sambhal, Moradabad, Rampur, Amroha.
In 3 seats: Kairana, Sambhal, Amroha – both SP & BSP have fielded Muslim candidates.
In 2 seats : Moradabad & Bijnore seats SP or BSP have fielded Muslims respectively and also Congress has also fielded strong Muslim candidates in here (Moradabad – Md. Azharuddin, former cricketer; Bijnore – Saiduzzaman, former MP) , thus 2 prominent Muslims in both these seats.
In 3 seats there is atleast one Muslim candidate from SP or BSP or Congress. They are:
Saharanpur – Qazi Rasheed Massood (SP), sitting MP
Muzaffarnagar – Kadfir Rana (BSP), sitting MLA
Rampur – Begum Noor Bano (Congress), former MP – 3 times
Only in one seat Nagina there is no Muslim candidate as it is reserved for SCs. However, the % of Muslim voters varies here from 30%-50% in all seats.
Now taking on seat by seat analysis:
S. No. 1 – SAHARANPUR : This seat is at the extreme north west corner of UP adjoining Uttarakhand in north (Dehradun dist.) and east (Haridwar dist.) and bordering Haryana (Ambala dist.)in the west and joined with UP from south
Party candidates
Congress is insignificant here.
(SP)- Qazi Rasheed Massood , sitting MP
(BSP)- Jagdish Rana, sitting MLA of SP crossed over to BSP
BJP-RLD:not announced
BJP-RLD To announce the candidate yet, but it is decided they will field a Saini OBC candidate, the party BJP or RLD who will contest has to be decided. In BJP-RLD pact, 7 seats were alloted to RLD, but later Sitapur seat which was alloted to RLD , BJP put its own candidate because of the candidates from other parties RLD gave back the seat to BJP. Now, BJP has to allot one alternative seat to RLD, Saharanpur may be that one, has to be decided.
This seat has approx. 30% Muslims. SP had put sitting MP Muslim candidate who will get majority of Muslim votes but they are no SP’s Yadav and Lodh votes here; so no additional support. While BSP will get most Dalit votes but not much Muslim votes. However BSP has fielded a Thakur candidate. BJP has its sitting Thakur MLA from Saharanpur city assembly seat Raghav Lakhan Pal Singh, who is very popular and bring a good share of Thakur votes to BJP-RLD despite BSP’s Thakur candidate.
S. No. 2 – KAIRANA : Both SP and BSP has fielded Muslims here.
Congress is insignificant here.
(SP)- Saran Massod, a Muslim Gujjar
(BSP)- Tabassum Beg, wife of sitting Muzaffarnagar MP of SP Munawwar Alam who died recently in an road accident
(BJP)- Ch. Hukum Singh Gujjar, sitting MLA from Kairana Assembly seat, several time winner senior BJP leader and Deputy leader of BJP legislative party in UP assembly.
This seat has approx. 40% Muslim votes. Muslim votes may divide b/n SP-BSP, but major portion will go to SP because among Muslims majority is Gujjars and SP candidate is a Muslim Gujjar. But no additional support for SP bcoz almost nil Yadav and Lodh voters here. BSP is likely to get majority of 15% Dalits and a small portion of Muslim votes bcoz of sympathy factor. BJP is likely to get all Hindu votes except most Dalit votes in absence of any other prominent Hindu candidate.
S. No. 3 – MUZAFFARNAGAR : Asia’s largest Jaggery (Gur)market is located here. The sugar cane farmers have an important role in the politics here, who are angry with BSP govt. over arrest of Mahendra SIngh Tikait od Bhariya Kisan Union, last year and traditional supporters of RLD.
Congress- Harendra Mallick, a sitting MLA
(SP)- Thakur Sangeet Singh Som
(BSP)- Kadir Rana, sitting MLA of RLD crossed over to BSP
(RLD)- Ms. Anuradha Chaudhary, sitting MP from Kairana won last time by over 3 lakh votes – the highest margin in all UP and no.2 in RLD after Ch. Ajit Singh.
This seat has approx. 30% Muslim votes. Most of Muslim votes will go to BSP . It will also get 15% Dalits. So, BSP can get 35%-40% votes. SP is likely to get Thakur and a small portion of Muslim votes, around 10%-15% votes total. Congress candidate is a Jat but in front of Anuradha Chaudhary of RLD, he would not be able to get much Jat votes. He can can get from 5%-10% votes total. Has Congress stood any upper caste- Baniya or Brahmin it would have taken away BJP’s urban & upper caste vote in absence of BJP candidate as RLD is contesting here, now they will go to RLD along with almost total rally of Jat farmers rural votes. BJP is likely to get all Hindu votes except most Dalit votes in absence of any other prominent Hindu candidate.
4. BIJNORE :
Congress – Saiduzzama, former MP
(SP)- Earlier Kartar S. Bhadana then replaced by Madan Chauhan. Now he is also cancelled and no announcement yet.
(BSP)- Shahid Siddiqui, Rajya Sabha MP of SP crossed over to BSP
(BJP-RLD)- Likely to be given to BKD’s Rakesh Tikait son of Bharatiya Kisan Union leader Ch. Mahendra Singh Tikait.
One third voters are Muslims here and 15-17% Dalits. BSP likely to get most Muslim but Cong & SP will also take some Muslim votes. Congress’s Muslim candidate will not damage BJP-RLD but SP will take some portion of non-Dalit Hindu votes around 50% and leaving most of them to BKD supported by BJP-RLD.
5. NAGINA : It is reserved for SCs newly created seat.
Congress – insignificant here
(BSP)- Ram Kishan Singh
(RLD)- Munshi Ram Pal, sitting MP from Bijnore (SC)
(SP)- The Samajwadi Party has changed the party candidate from Nagina (reserved) Lok Sabha seat and now Yashveer Singh would be the new candidate.
The announcement of the name of Yashveer Singh, who recently joined the party leaving Ajit Singh led Rashtriya Lok Dal(RLD), was made by party state president Shivpal Singh Yadav on the directives of party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav. Recently, Yashveer had revolted against the RLD leadership following the BJP-RLD alliance in the coming Lok Sabha elections in UP. Earlier, the party had announced the name of Manoj Paras as the SP candidate from Nagina(SC) seat in Western UP. In this seat, one-third are Muslim votes, likely to be divided among BSP & SP with BSP upper hand. The 25% dalit votes in this SC reserved seat are likely to be divided three way and other candidates, with BSP getting half of them. The upper caste and Jat votes will go to RLD solid. The RLD has agood record of winning SC reserved seats in Jatland of Western UP.
6. Moradabad :
(BSP)- Rajiv Channa, sitting BJP MLA from Moradabad West, who crossed to BSP recently to contest LS election.
(Congress)- Mohd. Azharuddin, former cricketer
(SP)- Haji Rizwan
(BJP)- Kunwar Sarvesh Singh
The fight is primarily between BJP & SP. With 35% + Muslim votes here, are likely to go SP traditionally but presence of celebrity Muslim candidate from Congress will also attract many Muslim votes. Most of 15% dalits and part of 5 % Punjabi may go with BSP, being a Punjabi candidate.
To be contd….
April 18th, 2010 at 6:42 PM
THE BEST NAME OF SEPRATE WESTERN UTTAR PARADESH IS PASCHIMANCHAL.NOT HARIT PARADESH OR HARITAJLAND.GIVE SOME COMMENTS ON THIS VIEW.
February 20th, 2010 at 8:26 PM
hey harit pardesh wud nvr come in place,evn if it does thn yadav r still goona be in the politics bcz they still wud grasp good population in the area!!!
June 12th, 2009 at 3:13 PM
plz send me your views for making the seprate state name harit paradesh(HARITAJ LAND}.
June 11th, 2009 at 10:03 PM
I HAPPY TO READ ABOVE ARTICLE. I THINK WE SHOULD NOT DISCUSSED THE POPULATION AND THE PERCENTAGE OF MUSLIM AND JAT IN HARIT PARADESH(HARITAJ LAND).I THINK IF WE WANT TO MAKE HARITAJ LAND THAN WE SHOULD TAKE ALL RELIGIONS .I AM THE BIG SUPPORTER OF HARITAJLAND.
April 8th, 2009 at 9:11 AM
AK Bhai, I am NOT Anti-Muslim, I am Deeply Inspired by Dr. Shyama Prasad Mukherjee’s Policies.The Reason, Why I Admire Sree Atal Bihari Vaajpayee as A Larger Than Life Personality too is for The same. He is someone, Who Brought Back Dr. Shyama Pasad Mukherjee’s Policies in Politics.
The Jan Sangh Couldnt Be A Huge Success like BJP as The Policies of Dr. SPM were Diluted and each decision was Taken by The RSS. Anyone Who Opposed The Interference of RSS in Day to Day Functioning of Jan Sangh was Thrown out without any consideration. One Such case is of Prof.Balraj Modhak, A Disciple of Dr.SPM
Today, The Muslims of India have been given a Free Hand and so are Evangelicals.While, Hindus are being treated as Secondary Citizens in Our Own Homeland even in Independent India. And All This is Due to The Nehruvian Policies.
April 8th, 2009 at 9:04 AM
Well, Polufurcation of UP will Diminish BSP and SP as they cant survive without their individual leaders maya and mullah.
beyond their state, they are Zero.
and any seats won on their symbol would eventually be gulped by other parties as it happened in Rajasthan.
April 8th, 2009 at 3:26 AM
I agree with Chakresh , UP should be reorganized into 4 state clearly on the basis of cultural lines.
It will be benefitial for following reason,
1> It will break the hold on big chuck of seats by any regionaly party like SP & BSP. Look at Jharkhand, after this election RJD will be wiped out from Jharkhand, which wouldn’t have happend if the state of Bihar was not split.
2> It will result in strengthening National Parties (BJP & Congress). Congress is anyday better than SP/BSP. Congress is necessary evil for BJP.
3> I think we are getting paranoid about Muslim popluation %. Even if it is 30% in Harit Pradesh, that means 70% are non-Muslims. Bihar has ~ 20% Muslims, JD(U) has good base there. Also, BJP needs to educate people that it is not anti-Muslim.
There is alot of Difference between Kashmir & Harit Pradesh. The problem in Kashmir is that since it was historically disputed since partisian and border’s pakistan and the sentiment of Independence has been nurtured by pakistan based groups. However, no such thing is present in Harit Pradesh. There are areas in India which have been muslim majority for some time, like Hyderabad, Parts in Kerala, Malda in WB, but that is okay. I don’t think being Muslim majority will turn it into Anti-India.
I have a feeling that during next Lok Sabha they might constitute state reorganization commision (that was excuse of congress for not forming Telengana directly) to look into formation of new states. As a result following may come up,
1> Telengana (Invevitable)
2> Vidharbha (NCP , BJP in favour)
3> Gorkhaland (They might call it differently, less chance only BJP support)
4> Poorvanchal (If State Commision comes, this is definite)
5> Bundelkhand (Chances are high, only concern is parts of MP)
6> Harit Pradesh (Rohilkhand, may not be called rohilkhand for historic region as that means land of Rohila Pathans who settled here)
7> Awadh (The remain piece of UP)
Smaller states are good for better management and as public awareness increases the accountability is high in smaller states as people can change govt on small yet important issues, which gets lost in Bigger State like UP.
I wish they do this…
April 8th, 2009 at 1:52 AM
Advantage Rajnath in Ghaziabad
A triangular contest is on the cards in Ghaziabad with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress and BSP announcing their candidates for the parliamentary constituency. The SP would not field any candidate as it has declared its decision to support the Congress here. However, the main fight here is between the BJP and the Congress.
BJP president Rajnath Singh is the party’s nominee for the seat. The profile of the newly-created seat favours Rajnath as Thakurs form a substantial part of the electorate in the rural belt. Rajnath, being a Thakur, can safely bet on his community’s votes. Besides, the party can rely on Thakur converts among Muslims who are spread over the Dhaulana, Musuri and Dasna Assembly segments. Raja Mateen Noori, the scion of the former ruling family of Dasna and a Thakur convert, along with his wife, has joined the BJP and organised a meeting of Muslims in Musuri, a minority pocket. They had earlier resigned from the Congress.
Punjabis, Vaishyas and Brahmins — the traditional voters of the BJP — have a considerable presence in this constituency. Besides, the alliance with Ajit Singh’s RLD may help the BJP bag Jat votes. There are about 1.25 lakh Jat voters in the constituency. Another factor that favours the BJP is the presence of a large number of middle-class professionals.
Congress candidate Surendra Prakash Goel hopes that he would get a substantial chunk of the 1.75 lakh-strong Vaishya voters since he belongs to this community. Besides, the Congress strategists are banking on the support of over 1 lakh Gujjar voters. The SP’s support would also help the Congress.
BSP candidate Amar Pal Sharma pins his hopes on the support of Muslims (3.50 lakh), Dalits (3.25 lakh) and Brahmins (90,000). Though he can safely bet on the Dalit votes, the Brahmin support seems to be not forthcoming.
Meanwhile, the National Loktantrik Party (NLP), a political outfit launched by UP’s former Education Minister Mohd Masud, has fielded KZ Bukhari. Besides, Anwar Ahmad, a prominent Muslim leader and a former member of Lok Sabha, has also jumped into the fray. In such a situation, the Muslim votes might get divided among the Congress, NLP and BSP. This would benefit Rajnath.
Meanwhile, Gujjar leader Madan Bhaiya, who had resigned from the RLD over Ajit Singh’s decision to join the NDA, has not yet made up his mind on the course of action. Although the Congress plans to raise the issue of killing of Gujjars by the Vasundhara Raje Government, the community’s votes may get divided in the absence of any direction from the Gujjar leadership. This division of votes is ultimately likely to help the BJP.
The Ghaziabad Lok Sabha seat, with 17,69,918 voters, has five Assembly segments — Loni, Sahibabad, Ghaziabad, Murad-nagar and Dhaulana.
The delimitation exercise has made it a predominantly urban constituency with less than 3 lakh rural voters. The major rural chunk comes from Dhaulana and Muradnagar Assembly segments. The largest Assembly seat — Sahibabad — has 5,67,002 voters.
April 8th, 2009 at 1:01 AM
Varanasi Parliamentary Constituency
Dr Joshi is fighting against muscle and money power
Varanasi (Kashi) is the cultural capital of Uttar Pradesh. Also known as “Bhole ki Nagari” (the city of God Shankar), Varanasi boasts of the famous Kashi Vishvanath Mandir. In this parliamentary constituency, which is replete with cultural heritage, the famous educationist and former HRD Minister Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi is the BJP candidate. He has been the MP from Allahabad constituency for four terms.
It is appalling to mention that two muscle and money powers are fighting against Dr. Joshi. Mukhtar Ansari, MLA from Mau, is the BSP candidate. Mukhtar Ansari, a mafia don of eastern UP, is directly involved in more than two dozen criminal cases including murder and communal riots. The then treasurer of Vishva Hindu Parishad, Nand Kishor Rungta was kidnapped and murdered a decade ago. Mukhtar is alleged to be the mastermind behind that crime. He is also alleged to be involved in the murder of BJP MLA Krishnanad Ray. Mukhtar Ansari, who is in jail, is said to have relations with mafia don Dawood Ibrahim, the mastermind behind 1993 Mumbai blasts.
Another candidate Ajay Ray has also a criminal background. He is MLA from Kolasala assembly constituency. Mukhtar Ansari and Ajay Ray are the opponent in criminal field. Mukhtar was alleged to be involved in the murder of Vijay Ray (brother of Ajay Ray) in the early nineties. It is said that mafia don Brajesh Singh is behind Ajay Ray. In the criminal world, Brajesh Singh and Mukhtar Ansari are the two known names.
After the Ramjanmabhoomi movement of 1990, the constituency has been the stronghold of BJP. Shankar Prasad Jaysawal of BJP had been elected four times from here. In the last elections (2004), he lost the seat by marginal votes. This time BJP has changed its candidate and Dr. MM Joshi is contesting from here. Having a clean image in political field, Dr. Joshi, being HRD Minister, took many landmark decisions to purify the education system of the country. Being MP of Allahabad for four terms, he initiated a number of projects for the welfare of the public. The people of Allahabad remember him as a leader, who has sacrificed himself to the cause of public welfare. Allahabad University has become the central university because of the efforts of Dr. Joshi. The Naini bridge on the river Yamuna is also the result of Dr. Joshi’s efforts. Dr. Joshi’s only agenda is development of his constituency and this image will certainly pay him in the elections.
April 7th, 2009 at 4:35 PM
Will This be Demographically Safe? Vikas Ji, Need Your Input on This
April 7th, 2009 at 4:34 PM
Allright, I think, there’s A Huge Discussion on Division of Uttar Pradesh.
Here’s A Map I Found on The Divisions in UP:
http://wpcontent.answers.com/wikipedia/en/f/f5/UP_region_map.gif
as Per This Map, I Feel, Three States Can be Carved out from UP, thus, present UP would be Fragmented into Four.
1.Poorvanchal — Poorvanchal and Bagelkhand
2.Bundelkhand
3.Harit Pradesh — Upper Doab, Middle Doab and Rohilkhand
And ofcourse UP would Retain — Avadh and Lower Doab
April 7th, 2009 at 3:42 PM
Ritesh Bhai, Polyfurcation of UP is Not in The Interest of The Nation.
Bifurcation is Good as it would Help BJP Gain in Poorvanchal and also due to Increased percentage of muslims , More Hindus would be Driven towards BJP in The Bifurcated UP
April 7th, 2009 at 3:41 PM
PC should now recieve the same on his some turf.
I Wish Vaiko Contests Against pc and crushes him Electorally.
under Present Cicumstances, Vaiko even if He stands as an Independent can Win in Any Constituency in TamilNadu
April 7th, 2009 at 3:39 PM
I do Agree Arun. Not just PC, even MMS Deserves The same. Being A Sikh Himself, He should have Hanged His Head.
Congress was Gaining upper hand in Punjab, but, acquittal of Jagdish Tytler(For Those Who Dont Know, jagdish tytler is a christian, see the xtian connection here),It’s NDA all The Way in Punjab
April 7th, 2009 at 3:01 PM
Uttar Pradesh will be polufurcated to finish Mayawati.
April 7th, 2009 at 1:45 PM
Chidambaram has got what he deserved
April 7th, 2009 at 10:12 AM
I am Not in Favour of Reorganization of States.
It would give rise to unlimited proliferation of regional and sub regional political parties and destabilize The Nation.
Bifurcation is neccessarry.
But, I am NOT in Favour of any further Division of UP beyond Poorvanchal, which has as many as 32 Lok Sabha Seats!!!
April 7th, 2009 at 9:59 AM
Chakresh – putting Upper doab (Saharanpur and Meerut divisions – 25-38% Muslims), and Rohilkhand (Moradabad and Bareilly divisions 25-50% Muslims) in one state is a recipe for disaster. It will be constructing a mini-Pakistan in the heart of India. Even if you add the Agra division, and Bharatpur, Muslims will form 30% of the population. That is why I suggested merging Rohilkhand with Oudh, where their clout can be decreased.
April 7th, 2009 at 9:42 AM
I will be writing a whole series on reorganization of states in India, after the election.
Actually started writing a book, but due to insufficient data, plan did not work. Just a series of blog posts then
April 7th, 2009 at 9:40 AM
I support the idea of reorganization of Indian state based on cultural identities. Smaller states are better performer on economic scale also.
In case of UP, the cultural background suggest formation of 4 new states.
1. Harit Pradesh: upper doab, middle doab, rohilkhand + Bharatpur district of rajasthan
2. Awadh : lower doab, awadh
3. Purvanchal (or better name it Bhojpur and include bhojpuri speaking district from south-east Bihar)
4. Bundelkhand : with many districts from MP
see the following photograph for a good quality map
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/f/f5/UP_region_map.gif