- Maharashtra seatwise prepoll prediction by Arun Narendhranath
- Karnataka seatwise prepoll prediction by Shanthesh
- Andhra Pradesh & Telangana seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
- Assam seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros
- Rajasthan seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros
- Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 1
- Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 2
- 9 northern states prepoll prediction by raja
- Tamilnadu seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
- Pre-poll prediction after phase 3 by Shiladitya Bose
- West Bengal seatwise prepoll prediction by Sameer
This is my prediction about how things are going to turn out in west bengal:
1. Coochbehar: Toss up ( Trinamool- AIFB)
2. Alipurduar: RSP
3. Jalpaiguri: CPI(M)
4. Darjelling: BJP
5. Raiganj: INC
6. Balurghat: Toss up
7. Maldaha Uttar: INC
8. Maldaha Dakshin: INC
9. Jangipur: INC
10. Baharampur: INC
11. Murshidabad: Toss up (INC- CPIM)
12. Krishnagar: Trinamool
13. Ranaghat: Trinamool
14. Bongaon: Trinamool
15. Basirhat: Trinamool
16. Barasaat: Trinamool
17. Barrackpur: Toss up
18. Dumdum: CPI(M)
19. Kolkata Uttar: Toss Up
20. kolkata Dakshin: Trinamool
21. Mathurapur: Trinamool
22. Diamond Harbor: Trinamool
23. Jadavpur: Toss Up
24. Joynagar: RSP
25. Howrah: CPI(M)
26. Uluberia: Trinamool
27. Srirampur: trinamool
28. Hooghly: Toss Up
29. Arambag: CPI(M)
30. Ghatal: CPI
31. Tamluk: trinamool
32. Kanthi: Trinamool
33. Medinipur: Toss Up ( CPI- Trinamool)
34. Jhargram: CPI(M)
35. Purulia: AIFB
36. Bankura: CPI(M)
37. Bishnupur: CPI(M)
38. Bardhaman Purba: CPI(M)
39. Bardhaman- Durgapur: CPI(M)
40. Asansol: CPI(M)
41. Bolpur: CPI(M)
42. Birbhum: trinamool
default toss up is CPIM-Trinamool.
I feel most of the toss ups will be won by left.
LEFT: 15-23, Trinamool-INC : 18-26, BJP: 1.
Most Likely outcome: LEFT 21, Trinamool-INC: 20, BJP: 1.
Take a look at these related posts:
- Assam seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros
- Tamilnadu seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
- Rajasthan seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros
- Maharashtra seatwise prepoll prediction by Arun Narendhranath
- Prepoll prediction by main stream media compilation
May 5, 2009 at 7:50 PM
Thank you for publishing my opinion here.
I will try to provide a background of each seat which was predicted.
Roughly you can divide west bengal into 3 parts:
1) North Bengal [northern part of river ganges]
2) Southeast Bengal [ eastern part of river Hooghly]
3) southwest bengal [ western part of river hooghly]
In north bengal, the fight is 50:50.
In southeast bengal, its mostly trinamool- INC.
In southwest, its still mostly a left bastion barring the southeastern part of this region.
Sure seats for BJP:
1. Darjeeling: Out of 7 assembly segments, 3are in hills and 4 are in plain land that mostly opposes gorkhaland.
In the plain land, CPM will win about 55% votes; but that may not be enough to cover 90% votes for BJP from hills.
Sure seats for INC:
The Congress is powerful in precisely 3 districts of west bengal: North Dinajpur ( Priya ranjan area), Maldaha ( Gani Khan area) and Murshidabad ( Adhir chowdhury area).
geographically speaking all these districts are on both sides of the river ganga.
1. maldaha south: gani khan zone. CPM left the battle even before it started.
2. baharampur: adhir chowdhury, even in the hardest of times, won this seat by 1 lac votes. and, after delimitation its more pro-congressthan before.
3. jangipur: candidate is pranab mukherjee which is somewhat unfortunate for cpm. in the last panchayat election, they did quite well here.
INC ahead:
4. raiganj: Priya ranajan’s seat. his wife is fighting for him. a trinamool strongman is fighting as independent. he only may get 30000-40000 votes but that may be crucial.
still, INC is favored.
5. maldaha north: this is a new constituency. and for the 1st time, CPM thought they will be going to parliament from maldaha. however, they did a miscalculation. this time, maldaha south is more vulnerable since congress gave the ticket to mausam noor. a better candidate selection, along with the trinamool alliance is keeping INC ahead.
INC toss-ups:
6. murshidabad: the sitting MP is from Congress. He is efficient, too. the congress did well i the last panchayat election from here. [ traditionally, CPM is stronger in this seat] however, the trouble for sitting MP mannan hossain is adhir chowdhury. he did not want mannan again.
there is supposedly a sabotage going on. however, adhir himself has denied that claiming if he is against somebody, he does that openly. [ in deed, he did that in last assmbly election]
contd..
May 5, 2009 at 8:32 PM
LEFT ALLIES:
AIFB:
they fight in 3 seats:
1. Coochbehar ( north bengal bordering Assam), 2. barasaat ( just northest of kolkata), 3. purulia ( westernmost tip of WB).
3 entirely different seats.
1. Purulia is a safe seat. in this part of bengal, CPM does not even have to do rigging. everybody votes for them anyway. and yes, cpm is more powerful than AIFB.the biggest threat to them is actually from maoists, not from congress.
2. Coochbehar is a 50-50 seat since CPM is not really fighting hard for them. the interesting part: here FB is more powerful than CPM. That may be their undoing. Recently, the trinamool is gaining much strength. however, their undoing may be in the form of separatist kamtapuris.
3. even in the last election, Barasaat was won by a margin of 15000. FB was the winner. However, the winner may have been the worst MP west bengal ever got. he was a good man, but did not doanything.CPM has basically chosen a candidate for FB here. BJP has given ticket to a defected CPM rajyasabha MP. but, more votes he get, its advantage trinamool! because,he will get votes from urban areas where second choice for BJP voters would be left, not trinamool.
RSP:
they fight in 4:
1. balurghat ( small pocket of left strength among Congress districts), 2. baharampur ( adhir chowdhury safezone, already discussed), 3. alipurduar ( north bengal, duars), 4. joynagar ( in the south, sundarban region).
unlike other left partners, they fight in the seats where they are at least 30-40% of left votes. In balurghat and baharampur, they are the big partner. In alipurduar, there strength is almost equal to CPM.
And in this election, they may be benificiary of divided opposition!
They could have lost all 4 this election.
1. In ALIPURDUAR, the opposite vote will be divided between trinamool, kamtapuris, BJP ( nepalese support) and the sitting Mp joakim Baxla ( he may gt some left votes, too). Indeed, trinamool was hoping to get it when RSP did not give ticket to the sitting MP and he decided to fight as an independent. However, divided opposition is the problem for them. The opposition vote, if together, would have trumped RSP votes by 1 lac.
2. In JOYNAGAR, the opposition is SUCI, supported by trinamool. However, Congress is not supporting SUCI. SUCI was a part of initial left front. it is a leftist party with very motivated caders. They can win on their own in 2 assembly segments in JOYNAGAR. [ same can be said about RSP]. its the other 3 assembly seats that will decide the race. A fully supporting Congress would have gave this seat to SUCI. however…
3. In BALURGHAT, the RSP candidate got hospitalized during a protest hardly 1 year back. oh, he was protesting against CPM. some left votes may get defected to someplace else. after delimitation, its more friendly to the opposition. in lefts interim report, whoever is going to win, is going to win by a whisker.
CPI seats:
CPI, in west bengal, can not win a municipality ward alone.
[ well, a little bit exaggaration.. but just a little]
they fight 3 seats and like FB they are facing the same situation.
1. GHATAL : it inclueds the infamous keshpur: the red terror zone. from here CPM wins by 1 lac votes in an assembly segment. the opposition really does not have any hope.
2. BASIRHAT: this is near kolkata and borders Bangladesh. It is a new strong zone for Trinamool. they fielded a muslim candidate. If Congress votes for them, which seems to be the case this moment: trinamool will win by 50,000 votes.
3. MEDINIPUR: Ideally, this should not even be in discussion. Left wins by 200000 from here. However, situation has changed a bit. Left is facing a large number of defectors who are working for trinamool candidate. This seat borders the CPm terror sones of ghatal and jhargram and on the other side, the trinamool zone of tamluk ( includes nandigram).
May 6, 2009 at 9:02 AM
Dear Friend, I would rather say : In Alipurdaur and New Jalpaiguri, Its Toss up between BJP and Left Front.
For the first time in The History of Bengal, The Fight is Triangular.
in 2004, ’99 & ’98 there were secret understandings between LF and congress but Not This time.
Similarly BJP has A Chance in KrishnaNagar as well as DumDum
May 6, 2009 at 9:56 AM
Hi Raj,
I am agree with 100% with.
BJP may win. Or it will get second position. In Sikkim BJP will get second position.
Darjeeling, DAlipurdaur, New Jalpaiguri
May 6, 2009 at 10:54 AM
Dear friends,
there is no seat called new jalpaiguri. there is a seat named jalpaiguri. BJP will get the 3rd place there.
In alipurduar, BJP has a brighter chance of finishing second.
In krishnagar, Satyabrata Mukherjee is a very good candidate. However, he has no chance whatsoever of even being second.
In dumdum, Tapan Sikdar was such a good MP. But unfortunately does not have anything to do with west bengal voters. I will be surprised if tapan sikdar can save his ” zamanat”.
As I said in the other thread earlier, supporting GJM in gorkhaland issue has put a “death nail” in BJP’s coffin in mainland west bengal.
May 6, 2009 at 11:12 AM
Toss up seats between CPM and Trinamool
All these 4 seats are in or around kolkata. A part of 3 of these seats are rural and part suburbs.
1. Barrackpur: Seat of CPM strongman Tarit Topdar. Knows very well how to manage a vote. there is an assembly bijpur here from where he got 70000 lead in the last loksava election. In 2006, when the election was much fairer, the lead of CPM came down to 17000! If ( and thats a BIG IF) a fair election is held, trinamool can gain this seat.
2. JADAVPUR: an old Trinamool seat, CPM wrested this seat back in 2004. MP sujan Chakraborty is seen as a good candidate and new face of left MP along with Md Salim. However, the battle is tough against the singer-cumm-politician Kabir Suman. The kolkata municipal corporation part of this seat will give the CPM candidate a lead, but can trinamool make it up from the rural areas of south 24 paraganas, from where they won most of the seats in last panchayat election?
3. kolkata uttar: The northern part of kolkata municipal corporation. A very tough battle indeed. If Md. Salim was not the candidate here, this would have been a trinamool gain. However, the voters here are very lucky since they get to choose between 2 very good candidates in Md Salim and Sudip Banerjee of Trinamool ( who as an MP from old kolkata northwest did a great job). BJP has some bases here, but these voters may opt out for CPM !
4. Hooghly: The votes of left and the combined opposition is almost 50-50. the old left strongholds are not anymore with them. The famous singur is in this loksabha. CPM candidate rupchand pal is a well known face. TMC may face an outsider problem with ratna de nag. however, even within the left ranks, this is being considered a close fight.
May 6, 2009 at 12:38 PM
Okay Sameer Bhai, But, I Read The Seat as New Jalpaiguri somwewhere.
May 6, 2009 at 1:13 PM
Mr Sameer, I think yor prediction is pro INC-TMC alliance. This “MAHAJOT” can not get more than 15-16 seats & LF will get 26-27 seats. Candidates like Gurudas Das Gupta & Lakhan Seth can not loose because of their voting machinery.
May 6, 2009 at 2:40 PM
Gurudas Dasgupta is winning from Ghatal (not b/c CPI’s election machinery but b/c of CPIM’s).
However, lets see about lakhshman seth. he won from Tamluk Loksabha seat last time by 60000 votes. BJP is non existent here. Trinamool will get INC and SUCI votes. In the last panchayat election, Trinamool won ALL THE BLOCKS from here.
This is where Nandigram is situated. Just 6 month ago, there was a byelection in Nandigram assembly seat. trinamool won by 39000 votes. The only lead CPIM will get is from Haldia. Its virtually impossible for lakshman seth to counter the lead trinamool will get from the other 6 assembly segments.
May 6, 2009 at 5:22 PM
Given that UPA can have either Trinamool or Left and not both, this seems to be a bad outcome for them.
May 6, 2009 at 5:51 PM
Now if BJP wants power on its own to solve the pandemic problems in the country, immediately after the elections, they have to concentrate on the states like West Bengal (42), Orissa (21), Andhra Pradesh (42), Tamil Nadu (39) & Kerala (20) to improve its tally impressively. In those 5 states BJP on its own can get not more than 10 seats out of 164 seats. If they work hard for coming 5 years it is very easy for them to get the power in Orissa on its own, where as in the rest of 4 states, they can be in a position to get 5 – 10 seats on its own & 10 – 15 seats in second position after 5 years, provided it should not tie up with any political parties in these regions. In coming 10 years they can easily get 50% of seats in these regions. And also they have to highlight the prominent persons in these regions are their leaders. They have to build the party by doing agitations against unpopular schemes & decisions taken by the ruling party. The agitation programs should be through out the year. That is very important for any rising party at the initial stage.
Another 3 states where it is facing threat from its allies are Maharastra (42), Bihar (40) & Punjab (13). Among the 3 states for BJP it is very easy to penetrate in Bihar & Punjab, where it has very good leaders to take the BJP to forward. Nitish Kumar is very dangerous to BJP. Strictly speaking he does not have mass support at all. Just because of sympathy he won the elections. In 2004 he was defeated in “Bhar” loksabha seat. And he is always trying to keep BJP in dilemma many occasions. In Punjab Sidhu & Vinodh Khanna are two prominent leaders for BJP. It has lot of scopes to improve its tally. But because of alliance with Akalidal they are unable to spread the party to all the locations. In Maharastra, Sivasena is playing double games, if situation comes. If a National party ties up with regional party, the former will always shrink. The best thing to grow is only seat sharing during elections if it is mandatory, otherwise go on its own. If BJP failed to come to power in this elections at centre, for them it is right time to grow in the above 3 states.
May 6, 2009 at 11:10 PM
To SK;
I partially agree with you. In last election, from WB and Kerala, with the left support, INC got 60 out of 62 seats in its kitty!
But, when the left got out of the UPA govt, INC got reduced to 7 out of 62!
What INC wanted to do: is to get out of this Left dependence. In kerala this time, I fully expect INC to get 14-15 seats. In WB, INC directly will not be gaining anything. But with Trianmool they can get, say 20 seats. That gives them 35 out of 62. better than 7, in deed! not bad!
May 7, 2009 at 4:25 AM
Sameer Bhai,
I am very close to Bengal and I think if these figures; as predicted by you; come out finally; I will have to reevaluate my political thinking which has always been correct in the past.
In my view, in no way the seats of UPA will be more than 15 in Bengal. Even 15 as per me is a highly attractive figure.
One shall not forget that Mamta is now the most hated influential leader in India.
You have given most urban seats to UPA but I think it will be very difficult for UPA to get urban seats in Bengal. I feel even Mamta will win with narrow margin from her seat.
Lets see what happens on 16th. But be sure that even if INC-Trinamool increases its tally by even 5 seats; left in no way will support UPA as it has now must learnt the price it had to pay for supporting UPA.
Further the Alliance of Cong-Trinamool was also in Assembly Elections. What happened is before you.
May 7, 2009 at 4:31 AM
Hoowever I personally pray (not expect) a sharp division of Seats in Bengal and Kerela; to the tune of 32-40 so that neither giving UPA and THIRD front a clear tally.
This weakening and division of UPA and Third front will surely help the NDA as these 2 states are the most dreadful States for NDA. Here both NDA and its Allies are absent.
May 7, 2009 at 4:53 AM
Further I dont think that Birbhum, Ranaghat, Barasaat, Uluberia will in any possibility go with Trinamool.
May 7, 2009 at 6:02 AM
Ajay,
I will mention the 4 seats you mentioned briefly.
1. Ranaghat: It is basically the old Nabadwip seat. Last time in 2004, CPM was trailing trinamool in 5 of the 7 assembly segments. They won from two seats , namely chakdaha and haringhata. Now, haringhata is not in ranaghat any more. and chakdaha is divided into 2 different seats. The one in ranaghat, is friendlier to trinamool. In the last panchayat election, Trinamool won ALL THE BLOCKS except one.
CPM has not given ticket to the last time MP and his followers are not happy. The only problem for trinamool: Congress strongman shankar singh is not doing much.
2. Barasat: Even in the better time of LF, in 2006, the combined trinamool- Congress vote was 65000 more than LF.
It is a seat of AIFB. CPIM selected their candidate. He may not even get the votes of AIFB workers. And, trinamool- Congress did extremely well in the panchayat election.
3. Uluberia: almost the same type as that of barasat. In 2006, the combined vote was 25000 more than the Left Front. AIFB has some strength in Uluberia and they may not be cooperative enough for the CPM candidate. Trinamool- Congress did well in the panchayat.
4. Birbhum: Again, the basis is the last panchayat election. If that result holds, Trinamool is going to win by about 40000 votes! However, the question really is: whether or not the congress votes are 100% behind trinamool. Also, the trinamool candidate is a good choice in actress shatabdi roy. It apparently does not work in WB, but in a place that was already tilting towards Trinamool-congress; this just might work.
May 7, 2009 at 12:27 PM
What I understand that CPM has already started rigging in many booths in Tamluk, Birbhum, Uluberia & Ghatal Lok Sabha seats. Paramilitary forces are non-exustant in many booths. Election is being conducted by 30000 CPM Caders whom CPM recruited as home guards 6 months before the election. If this is the status of our democract then God only can save our country.
May 7, 2009 at 9:30 PM
BJP winning Krishnanagar? It saw 73 % voting. My friend from West Bengal says- BJP can win from here- also Darjeeling and Alipurduar. He gives no chance to BJP in Dum Dum.
May 8, 2009 at 10:52 AM
Bengal election is completely rigged ….It is conducted by a bunch of government employees who doesn’t do any job other than performing their left union activities….Also the police got highly politicized….I don’t care who is winning but the way election results are getting manipulated is really really unfortunate….Even in places like Howrah ,an average voter can go and cast his vote for whoever he wants …that’s really sad .
May 8, 2009 at 11:35 AM
Inspite of mass scale rigging by LF in WB, it appears that Cong-TMC allies getting maximum seats in LS poll.It will not be surprised if heavy weight candidates like Hannan Mola, Tari Topdar, Rupchand Pal loose this time.
May 8, 2009 at 10:43 PM
I personally witnessed large scale manipulation and rigging in Bengal elections .It was in 1996 and I thought things might be changed by this time.Why the mainstream media don’t give much importance to the issue ?
May 9, 2009 at 12:10 AM
The more interesting point:
For the first time the CPM has made allegations against the opposition( the same allegation of rigging)in some seats.
May 9, 2009 at 3:50 AM
The real point is that if the fight is triangular, is it going to benefit the left or not? With the simple reason that AITC was born out of Congress only, then AITC + INC today is equal to Congress only. Earlier TMC was with BJP. The advantage they got then is known to all, so is it really going to affect the results in Bengal much. I belong to kerala and what i feel is that out of 42 seats (left had won 34 last time?) the left still may win 30 seats, BJP 2 & AITC+INC 10 seats.. Lets wait for a week more,..
May 9, 2009 at 10:03 AM
Because, media is controlled by Left
May 9, 2009 at 10:12 AM
Forget BJP winning any seats in WB other than in Darjeeling- that too will depand on whether the Gorkhas have rigged more in the hills than CPM has done in the plains of Darjeeling seat. Also, the INC and TC alliance is more potent than the TC BJP alliance in BEngal, particularly this time with top leadership of both parties taking steps at the grassroots level in ensuring that the workers of both parties work for the alliance canditade- this is remarkably different that the earlier TC IC alliance of 2001.
When the ruling party complains of rigging, you have to smell winds of change- there are certain areas in TC strongholds where CPM has not been able to put polling agents in booth after booth in and around Tamaluk. In West Bengal, for the opposition to win a election , it is not sufficnent to just prevent CPM’s rigging, you have to rig too…and that has happened in some places this time.
To respond to ‘sun’, the fight is not triangular in West Bengal…left leaders were hoping against hope that BJP would split anti left votes…but I do not think that is going to happen…if not anything else, the opposition will split the state…atleast 20 seats.
May 9, 2009 at 10:20 AM
Fundamentals, BJP is Winning Alipurdaur and KrishnaNagar.True, BJP is NOT Splitting Anti Left Votes. But, Mamata is certainly splitting Pro-Left votes.
May 9, 2009 at 11:04 AM
Other than Darjeeling ,BJP doesn’t have any chance to win any of the other seats in Bengal…BJP is giving strong fight in 3-4 more seats where they may get around 15-20% votes.BJP’s presence may benefit LF up to certain extend in some of the North and City seats….LF may get around 28 seats if they are really lucky.If there is a fair election,they may not get not more than 20 seats. Either case ,Congress won’t get anything more than 6 seats which it won last time.TC will get around 10 seats .
May 9, 2009 at 11:34 AM
BJP would actually Eat into The Urban Middle Class Votes. so how come BJP’s Presence benefit Left Front?
May 9, 2009 at 12:59 PM
Raj, BJP will not win either of the two seats you mentioned…it is putting up a fight in these two seats and is nowhere close to winning in either. The base from which BJP starts in Bengal is low and it is not the dominant anui- Left party there. I agree with Jothi that the INC might end up retaining its last year’s tally of 6 seats at best…but TMC might win anything between 12- to 16 seats.
May 9, 2009 at 3:35 PM
last time congress won 6 seats because of the support from Left(it was a covert alliance).
Mamata Winning 12 Seats is A Utopian Thought.
LF would Win 28-30 seats.
Mamta would NOT Win even a Single urban Seat.
she would just win about 5-7 lok sabha seats and congress some 3 lok sabha seats.
with priya ranjan das munshi not contesting from Rani Gunj congress has a fair chance only at Malda(south) and may be one or two more seats.
Further, raul vinci’s statement that congress would seek LF support has shown that congress is very weak in Bengal and has angered Trinamool’supporters.
Mamata is Strongly Disliked in Bengal, particularly by The Youth.
As You guys say BJP is NOT so strong in Bengal, if that is so, people would still vote with Left instead of voting for congress-Trinamool alliance.
I have some Bengali Compatriots here who state as much as They want their state to get rid of commies, They HATE Mamta Banerjee.
she is An Immature Politician and suufers from Hysteria
May 9, 2009 at 3:37 PM
my Assessment :
BJP : 1-3(Well You may call me Biased)
Trinamool – inc : 9-10
LF : 28-30
May 9, 2009 at 4:34 PM
Raj, the notion that Mamata is disliked is parts of bengal, particularly among the urbane is true to some extent- though one should never forget the seats she won in 1999 (ofcourse there were BJP as ally) are Barasat, Calcutta North-West, Calcutta North-East, Calcutta South, Serampore, Contai, Jadavpur and Nabadwip…these are very urban and semi- urban seats- though delimitation hjas caused two of these to not exist, but the broad base of support for her (and also BJP votes) remains…the land issue has taken a giant leap in Bengal…
It really depends on who you speak to…Mamata is not liked for her immaturity…but the land issue along with the INC votes has given her a huge impetus and has brought her back from the fringes…these are shaky times for the Left…Mamata will win anything in excess of 12. And INC can come down by one seat from last time- Darjeeling and maybe it stands an outside chance of losing PR’s seat. Besides, PR did not have a mass base outside His constituency…
Anyways…lets wait and see in a week. MNy assessment
INC- 5
TC- 14.
Left- 22- 23
BJP- 0-1
May 9, 2009 at 6:50 PM
Raj , You are true about West Bengal.”I have some Bengali Compatriots here who state as much as They want their state to get rid of commies, They HATE Mamta Banerjee.”
I too asked some of my friends and they said the same.This is a good opportunity for BJP to test their strength and grow on their own
May 9, 2009 at 7:09 PM
Mr. Fundxamentals, what You seem to forgot is that, Post Singur and Nandigram, Mamata LOST All urban Supporters. she is seen as a Retro person and someone who would Push Bengal into Dark Ages.
Between ’99 and ’09 there is Nandigram and Singur.
she would do well in those rural areas but in the urban centres she might not even get deposit.
May 9, 2009 at 9:35 PM
Few pointes to be noted:
1. It is agreed, that there are people, mostly in Urban area, who do not like mamata; although they are against CPIM also. However, This is a loksabha vote. So, it is not clear how they are going to vote.
2. BJP has most of its vote in mainland West Bengal after they supported Gorkhaland. There went all their hopes in Krishnagar.
3. In dumdum, if BJP gets any vote; that will be from SUBHAS lobby of CPIM. They have done it before in 98,99.
4. Alipurduar, OTOH, BJP has a fair chance of getting second position.
5. In WB, there are only 4 seats which is completely URBAN.
A) Kolkata South, B) Kolkata North, C) Dumdum, 4) Barrackpur.
In KOLKATA SOUTH, its Mamata fighting again. So she is going to win.
In DUMDUM, CPM should win unless the subhas lobby creates a problem for sitting MP Amitabha Nandi.
In BARRACKPUR, it is the zone where industries are getting closed every month. The industrialization process is in complete disarray. people are angry since they can not vote for themselves. CPM cadres take care of that. If a fair election is possible, things can change.
In KOLKATA NORTH, both the candidates are good. They both have worked well for the constituency. Should be a very close election.
6) There are few more seats where URBAN-RURAL division is almost 50-50.
a) BARASAT: Here all the panachayat and few municipality are in Trinamool’s favor. Trinamool will win from 5 of the 7 assembly segments and CPM will 1 urban segment. Overall, Trinamool will get clear advantage.
b) JADAVPUR: The rural part will be dominated by trinamool, the Urban part will be domianted by CPM. lets see who wins.
7) In 1998,1999 Trinamool gained mainly in the Urban area. Thats too b/c BJP was with them.
This is indeed a big change.
To win bengal, you must win in rural areas.
This time Trinamool is going to win some rural seats that was unimaginable 2 years back.
9) Its very curious that BJP actually want CPM to succeed and vice versa!
Politics make strange bedfellows.:)
May 9, 2009 at 9:36 PM
a small correction.
in the previous post, 2) should be read as:
BJP has LOST most of its vote in mainland West Bengal after they supported Gorkhaland. There went all their hopes in Krishnagar.
May 9, 2009 at 10:46 PM
Mr. Raj- You too seem to be ignoring the following
1. Muslims all across Bengal are a large constituent who have so far been faithful to the Left Front…and so have the scheduled tribes been…the Minority Commission report indicating that Muslims in Benagl are a worser lot than most of the other states in the country has brought them to question the Left Front’s sincerity in delivering goods for them…this is one thing that has given Alimuddin St. sleepless nights…
2. what has added to the woes of the Left is the reports of scheduled tribes who were a solid support base for the Lefts, particularly in the 24 Pargans, splitting their votes and backing the TC INC alliance in those areas.
3. Internal bickerings in the left front has cost them dear in the last few zilla and GP elections as well as MLA byelections, particularly with TC INC coming together. The bickerings continue- and not just amongs constituents…but even within CPM- this is against a broadly unified TC INC front…although not everything has been smooth for the later either…there are INC people not happy with TC candidates and vice versa…but the thrust from the top to broadly unify the grassroots has been fruitful to a large extent.
4. Also last but not the least, in WB, rigging plays an important factor. All the major Bengali newspapers (barring Ganashakti which is the Left mouthpiece) have reported that people and the opposition have prevented mass scale rigging in most of the places (though there have been some areas where CPM is very strong yet, and riggings have continued).Even CPM has complained of mass rigging by TC and INC this time, and have demanded repolling in some 50 odd booths…which is a first coming from the Left in WB.
There were 7 seats in WB where CPM won by about 50000 or less of a margin in 2004- and in those seats, the INC/TC votes together are likely to surpass that- even leaving aside the general swing. Add to it the alieneation of its supports by the BJP by going with the Gorkhaland demand (although it has not specifically acceded to it).
The Left’s mastestroke was the land redistribution-and 30 years later the forceful taking away of it, or so it seemed, is its undoing.
May 9, 2009 at 10:58 PM
This has to be prevented.
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1090509/images/09nandibig.jpg
CPM is pretty much winning the election due to the terror not with the real support. Everyone who believe in Democracy needs to oppose it. The same CPM will make big noise against other parties and act as if they are so pure and strong in left bastions. I hate most of the main stream media because of their leftist bias.
May 9, 2009 at 11:10 PM
Don’t think the entire urban population and the youth hates Mamata. Development,Violence and corruption are major issues for the city population. It should be the LF whom people needs to blame for lack of development as they were in power for 32 years and have such a mass base all over the state. Kind of political violence people witness in Bengal strongly attributed to the muscle power of CPM.Government is highly corrupted in the lower level. In Kolkata ,Mamata may loose some votes but she will be gaining a lot of votes among the rural and middle class voters.
May 10, 2009 at 6:40 AM
Seems Bengal Voters Psychology is getting Complex.
Need to Wait for 6 more days.
May 10, 2009 at 12:22 PM
All i could know about the electoral scene in west bengal is that the left is in some deep trouble . I am not a resident of Bengal and i get to know the info. only from news channels. An extremely popular election analyst has said that usually people (through these 3 decades of CPI(M) rule) have not spoken up against the left , secondly the disconent against the left will not significantly translate into vote and thirdly those votes aginst the left will not get translated into seats . But he says that this time the first two things ( speaking up against left ,voting against the left in large numbers ) have already happened in the two phases of polling in Bengal and the third thing ( translation into seats) remains to be seen .
A more fundamental que. is that whenever there is a high turn out the incumbent govt. is sure to be in trouble . There is a high chance of the ruling front faring badly . In phase 4 , rural Bengal’s turn out was some 75%!!!Is this really a vote for change in CPM’s bastions in South Bengal?
May 11, 2009 at 12:34 PM
Dear all
I have gone through all the comments posted over here. What I conclude from that all the commentors here are genuinely pro-NDA.
So I think we should suggest a strategy which will ultimately benefit BJP-NDA in Bengal and nation.
It is very clear BJP in this election is not at all in position to win win more than a 2-3 seats by even very very liberal estimate and it is also sur it is also definite it will surely win one seat of Darjeeling, irrespective of whatever policy theyu adopt in remaining bengal mainland. So even if they do wrong step the maximum possible loss is zero.
Keeping this in mind, BJP should play which will help it in future.
It should put strong candidates in each seat fight vigorously and increase their vote % as much as possible, in the process whoever is damaged CPM-left or Trinamool-INC don’t care; for BJP both are equal enemies.
Then, as an approach BJP should focus urban educated progreesoriented voters and harp on development issues emphatically, Tata -Nano project should be loudly taken to expose Trinamolol Mamta anti-development attitude in company with Congress.
and Left’s inefficiency to rein in Mamta and work for industrial growth.
BJP should not be seen in company with anti-development mamta party at all.l It should adopt a tough tactical posture towards them.
See politics is not only Arithmetics it is sheer chemistry more. U cannot have Narendra Modi & Manta at the same time, this confuses ur voters and u end up loosing both sides.
Further BJP should make all out efforts to defeat Trinamool-INC candidates every where even Mamta herself even at thecost of Lefts winning, to teach them a befitting reply of parting with NDA and joining UPA.
See, if Mamta-Congress alliance succeeds then it will close all the future possibilities of TMC joining & supporting NDA. If her alliance fails miserably with Congress then she will rethink her alliance with Congress .
And also if she looses her traditional urban votebank and looses her traditional urban seats & donot get good enough rural seats also because of anti TATA-NANO stand she will also rethink her stand on such progressive developmental projects.
Then only a changed Mamta dissociated with Congress after failure and pro-development face will be much suitable for BJP to enter NDA, otherwise she will remain in UPA and even if Congress joins with Left then she may join NDA but will always be perrenial problems because of her anti development stand (which would be more tough if she wins good no. of LS seats this time).
So at all cost BJP should try to get TMC candidates defeated in as many as possible no. of seats.
and increase its vote share as much as possible at least 10% + across West Bengal. (this is not wishful, it is possible as BJP secured around 12% votes in1991 in Ram Lehar time). This is also possible this time also as urban educated youth and mazdpoors are highly disillusioned by both Left & TMC-mamta. This is right time to capture urban frustrated votebank of Trinamool Congress for BJP.
If BJP recieves 10-12% popular votes in W Begal and bag a couple of seats, then it will automatically become an attractive ally in West Bengal.
Meanwhile also Mamta-Congress alliance faiols miserably, then it will be a fantastic situation for BJP in West Bengal, to attract TMC in coming assembly elections at genuine pro development agenda.
May 11, 2009 at 2:27 PM
Vikas Ji, I am Against Any Alliance between BJP and Mamata.
Also, as long as BJP is Dependent on Mamta, BJP Can Never Gravitate Hindu Votes away from communists and congress.
BJP’s Strength are Primarily Upper Castes, OBCs and Tribals.
In Bengal, OBC population is Quite low. The Upper Castes, Particularly, The Brahmins in Bengal vote for communists.
BJP should Therefore, co ncentrate on Tribals and The OBCs though, they constitute Only a Small Fraction of about 10-12% of Bengal’s Electorate.
BJP should atleast garner around 15% vote share by 2011 Assembly Elections.
May 11, 2009 at 2:32 PM
Mamta Benerjee is The MOST Eccentric Politician in India.
She is Completely Erratic and Cant Motivate People.Also, there is NO Possibility of Mamta Benerjee and BJP Alligning in Near Future as Mamta’s New Strength is The Rural Muslim and she would certainly NOT Like to lose This Votebank gifted to her from her Arch Rival through Singur and Nandigram.
Instead, BJP Should Promote Narendra Bhai(Mahatma Modi) and Varun(Who is planning His Marriage with A Bengali Girl) in Bengal. Also, He should Focus on Learning Bengali as Rural Bengal Cant Follow Hindi Properly
May 11, 2009 at 3:40 PM
Vikas Ji, What will be the impact of High Court Ruling that NSA Against Varun is Invalid.
Will it give Overwhelming Sympathy to BJP in Western UP?
May 11, 2009 at 5:27 PM
well Raj
the developments in last few days have necessarily motivated BJP cadres in Rohilkhand region particularly, which will go to polling on 13 in V phase.
Yesterday I was in Chandausi (part of Sambhal seat) and travelled thru Moradabad, Nagina constituencies. The situation is in favour of BJP-RLD alliance.
Most interestingly in the IV phase despite much hype of Muslims drifting from SP to BSP over Kalyan Singh & azam Khan issue, at ground level Muslims are still strtongly supporting SP’s Muslim candidates in Meerut, Aligarh, Kairana LS seats strongly and the trend seems to extend over V phase in Rohilkhand area seats also- Sambhal, Amroha, Pilibhit, while Moradabad, Rampur may witness split of Muslim votes among SP & Congress with latter getting more share, but BSP could hardly cut ice with Muslim voters, as the party is still seen by the community uneder suspicion bcoz of its previous record of alignments with BJP.
Actually if Muslims had decisively and strongly shifted towards BSP then it would be very dangerous for BJP, bcos BSP’s strong Dalit vote around 15 % + Muslims 20-25% would be difficult to face for BJP, but SP doesnot have much to add to its 25% Muslim votes here, this will be easier for BJP to fight SP than BSP.
May 11, 2009 at 5:33 PM
Thanks for The Insight Vikas Bhai
May 11, 2009 at 6:24 PM
Hi VIKAS KUMAR,
Muslims are confused in UP. Muslim votes will get divided in
UP this time. BJP+ will get 30 to 40 seats.
May 12, 2009 at 9:58 AM
It looks like CPM is going their muscle power to win the last phase of the election.No of violent incidents are on the rise and it is going to be a bloody election.
May 12, 2009 at 3:08 PM
i think nation wont be giving a fractured mandate it will give clear mandate of atleast 250+ seats .
the only thing whom do the nation will choose either congress group (upa + 4th front) or give bjp group that is nda .
people of india never voted a government again from 1972 barring a pro congress wave of 1984 after the death of indiar gandhi .
so i sense it will be nda which will get approximately 250 seats and form the government at center this time .
May 16, 2009 at 8:32 PM
I am very happy the way Bengal voted in this election…Without rigging and electoral fraud ,left front might have lost pretty much all the seats.At last people came out and voted against the Leftists.
May 16, 2009 at 10:32 PM
Mr. Nitish, WB Elections were rigged, and were rigged in favour of congress-trinamool combine
May 17, 2009 at 1:00 AM
I should not brag about this but I was right in most of the predictions.
TMC+ got 26, Left 15 and BJP 1.
Within the prediction range.
I underestimated the wind against Left Front.
In 3 seats: dumdum, howrah and Joynagar; where I predicted Left front victory, I was wrong.
Out of the toss up seats I predicted,
LF won in 3: Coochbehar[33000], balurghat[ by 4000 only] and medinipur[ 60000+].
Trinamool won in 3: Kolkata north, hooghly, jadavpur [ all with a margin of 50000+]
Congress in 2: Murshidabad, Maldah North.
In Purulia, I failed to predict that it was a close fight.
AIFB won by about 20000 votes.
May 17, 2009 at 6:28 AM
RAJ,
Traitors like you make BJP loose elections and elections.Do you know how many BJP supporters were killed by LF in Kerala and Bengal in the last 10 years ? Do you know even the way election was conducted by LF in the past 30 years. At last people came out and voted against their arrogance. You prefer LF over TC-Congress.Shame on you!!!
May 17, 2009 at 11:17 AM
At las WB changed!!!Hope this will be a new beginning for the democratic Bengal.
January 21, 2011 at 3:41 PM
PLS GIVE THE PREDCTION OF 2011 ASSEMBLY ELECTION IN WEST BENGAL….
March 16, 2011 at 10:12 PM
Actually those who do not know what is TMC and congress and they did when they were in power prior to 1977. People were not allowed to speak against them. If you speak against them the you would be jailed. So beware guys before you caste your vote. TMC is going to bring BLACK DAYS in Bengal.
April 24, 2011 at 2:06 AM
Debraj says : It’s very unfortunate that still the people are unable to understand that they will be again in the dark age of early and mid seventies if the votes are casted in favour of TMC and INC alliance. Hence I would request all the well wishers of WB to cast your vote in favour of the present ruling party. I would also like to advise the young voters to collect the political information and the chaotic condition which prevailed in early and Mid 70″s.
April 25, 2011 at 8:27 PM
34 years have passed since those dark days. Politically speaking we have not moved an inch towards socialism in India, for which CPM led front is in politics. It is true that a right reactionary power will be in state power if LF loses, but if it wins then serial killings perpetrated by LF will be condoned, and they will be again up in arms against the rural folk for grabbing land for giving concession to industrialists. Some time an event becomes much more right reactionary than the party as it had happened in 1977 when even after series of nationalisation starting from Banks in 1969 to Petroleum in i976 Indira Gandhi was to be thrown out to bring in Morarji Desai, Charan Singh, Bajpeyee, Jagjivan Ram et al beacuse of emergency which was manifold reactionary than all those above named persons.
April 28, 2011 at 4:23 PM
Veru well said Amit. These bloody politicians are out to suck the blood and toils of common people. No social change is envisioned. Indian Constitution should restrain these uncivilised hypocrat politicians from the election battle.
May 8, 2011 at 5:32 PM
we are know curruption party&goverment
but should come 8th leftfront
goverment.
trinomol congress bhogas party for peopleof westbengal,
leader’s & party of TMC
they are not enable not good helth for west bengal
we will hope corrected healthy leftfront goverment
we will advance wise leftfront chairman&C.P.I.M SECTRAY BIMAN BOSE&BUDDHADEB BHATTACHARYA,,, ALL PEOPLE OF WESTBENGAL
May 9, 2011 at 5:18 PM
nitish and naveen please don’t speak when you don’t know the facts. You must know the saying” Empty vessels make much sound”.