May 5, 2009
West Bengal seatwise prepoll prediction by Sameer
- Maharashtra seatwise prepoll prediction by Arun Narendhranath
- Karnataka seatwise prepoll prediction by Shanthesh
- Andhra Pradesh & Telangana seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
- Assam seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros
- Rajasthan seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros
- Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 1
- Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 2
- 9 northern states prepoll prediction by raja
- Tamilnadu seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
- Pre-poll prediction after phase 3 by Shiladitya Bose
- West Bengal seatwise prepoll prediction by Sameer
This is my prediction about how things are going to turn out in west bengal:
1. Coochbehar: Toss up ( Trinamool- AIFB)
2. Alipurduar: RSP
3. Jalpaiguri: CPI(M)
4. Darjelling: BJP
5. Raiganj: INC
6. Balurghat: Toss up
7. Maldaha Uttar: INC
8. Maldaha Dakshin: INC
9. Jangipur: INC
10. Baharampur: INC
11. Murshidabad: Toss up (INC- CPIM)
12. Krishnagar: Trinamool
13. Ranaghat: Trinamool
14. Bongaon: Trinamool
15. Basirhat: Trinamool
16. Barasaat: Trinamool
17. Barrackpur: Toss up
18. Dumdum: CPI(M)
19. Kolkata Uttar: Toss Up
20. kolkata Dakshin: Trinamool
21. Mathurapur: Trinamool
22. Diamond Harbor: Trinamool
23. Jadavpur: Toss Up
24. Joynagar: RSP
25. Howrah: CPI(M)
26. Uluberia: Trinamool
27. Srirampur: trinamool
28. Hooghly: Toss Up
29. Arambag: CPI(M)
30. Ghatal: CPI
31. Tamluk: trinamool
32. Kanthi: Trinamool
33. Medinipur: Toss Up ( CPI- Trinamool)
34. Jhargram: CPI(M)
35. Purulia: AIFB
36. Bankura: CPI(M)
37. Bishnupur: CPI(M)
38. Bardhaman Purba: CPI(M)
39. Bardhaman- Durgapur: CPI(M)
40. Asansol: CPI(M)
41. Bolpur: CPI(M)
42. Birbhum: trinamool
default toss up is CPIM-Trinamool.
I feel most of the toss ups will be won by left.
LEFT: 15-23, Trinamool-INC : 18-26, BJP: 1.
Most Likely outcome: LEFT 21, Trinamool-INC: 20, BJP: 1.
January 8th, 2010 at 12:30 PM
I want you to know, your article goes to the core of the subject. Your lucidity leaves me wanting to know more. I will immediately grab your feed to keep up to date with your blog. Saying thanks is simply my little way of saying great job for a good resource. Let In my nicest wishes for your next publication.
May 17th, 2009 at 11:17 AM
At las WB changed!!!Hope this will be a new beginning for the democratic Bengal.
May 17th, 2009 at 6:28 AM
RAJ,
Traitors like you make BJP loose elections and elections.Do you know how many BJP supporters were killed by LF in Kerala and Bengal in the last 10 years ? Do you know even the way election was conducted by LF in the past 30 years. At last people came out and voted against their arrogance. You prefer LF over TC-Congress.Shame on you!!!
May 17th, 2009 at 1:00 AM
I should not brag about this but I was right in most of the predictions.
TMC+ got 26, Left 15 and BJP 1.
Within the prediction range.
I underestimated the wind against Left Front.
In 3 seats: dumdum, howrah and Joynagar; where I predicted Left front victory, I was wrong.
Out of the toss up seats I predicted,
LF won in 3: Coochbehar[33000], balurghat[ by 4000 only] and medinipur[ 60000+].
Trinamool won in 3: Kolkata north, hooghly, jadavpur [ all with a margin of 50000+]
Congress in 2: Murshidabad, Maldah North.
In Purulia, I failed to predict that it was a close fight.
AIFB won by about 20000 votes.
May 16th, 2009 at 10:32 PM
Mr. Nitish, WB Elections were rigged, and were rigged in favour of congress-trinamool combine
May 16th, 2009 at 8:32 PM
I am very happy the way Bengal voted in this election…Without rigging and electoral fraud ,left front might have lost pretty much all the seats.At last people came out and voted against the Leftists.
May 12th, 2009 at 3:08 PM
i think nation wont be giving a fractured mandate it will give clear mandate of atleast 250+ seats .
the only thing whom do the nation will choose either congress group (upa + 4th front) or give bjp group that is nda .
people of india never voted a government again from 1972 barring a pro congress wave of 1984 after the death of indiar gandhi .
so i sense it will be nda which will get approximately 250 seats and form the government at center this time .
May 12th, 2009 at 9:58 AM
It looks like CPM is going their muscle power to win the last phase of the election.No of violent incidents are on the rise and it is going to be a bloody election.
May 11th, 2009 at 6:24 PM
Hi VIKAS KUMAR,
Muslims are confused in UP. Muslim votes will get divided in
UP this time. BJP+ will get 30 to 40 seats.
May 11th, 2009 at 5:33 PM
Thanks for The Insight Vikas Bhai
May 11th, 2009 at 5:27 PM
well Raj
the developments in last few days have necessarily motivated BJP cadres in Rohilkhand region particularly, which will go to polling on 13 in V phase.
Yesterday I was in Chandausi (part of Sambhal seat) and travelled thru Moradabad, Nagina constituencies. The situation is in favour of BJP-RLD alliance.
Most interestingly in the IV phase despite much hype of Muslims drifting from SP to BSP over Kalyan Singh & azam Khan issue, at ground level Muslims are still strtongly supporting SP’s Muslim candidates in Meerut, Aligarh, Kairana LS seats strongly and the trend seems to extend over V phase in Rohilkhand area seats also- Sambhal, Amroha, Pilibhit, while Moradabad, Rampur may witness split of Muslim votes among SP & Congress with latter getting more share, but BSP could hardly cut ice with Muslim voters, as the party is still seen by the community uneder suspicion bcoz of its previous record of alignments with BJP.
Actually if Muslims had decisively and strongly shifted towards BSP then it would be very dangerous for BJP, bcos BSP’s strong Dalit vote around 15 % + Muslims 20-25% would be difficult to face for BJP, but SP doesnot have much to add to its 25% Muslim votes here, this will be easier for BJP to fight SP than BSP.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:40 PM
Vikas Ji, What will be the impact of High Court Ruling that NSA Against Varun is Invalid.
Will it give Overwhelming Sympathy to BJP in Western UP?
May 11th, 2009 at 2:32 PM
Mamta Benerjee is The MOST Eccentric Politician in India.
She is Completely Erratic and Cant Motivate People.Also, there is NO Possibility of Mamta Benerjee and BJP Alligning in Near Future as Mamta’s New Strength is The Rural Muslim and she would certainly NOT Like to lose This Votebank gifted to her from her Arch Rival through Singur and Nandigram.
Instead, BJP Should Promote Narendra Bhai(Mahatma Modi) and Varun(Who is planning His Marriage with A Bengali Girl) in Bengal. Also, He should Focus on Learning Bengali as Rural Bengal Cant Follow Hindi Properly
May 11th, 2009 at 2:27 PM
Vikas Ji, I am Against Any Alliance between BJP and Mamata.
Also, as long as BJP is Dependent on Mamta, BJP Can Never Gravitate Hindu Votes away from communists and congress.
BJP’s Strength are Primarily Upper Castes, OBCs and Tribals.
In Bengal, OBC population is Quite low. The Upper Castes, Particularly, The Brahmins in Bengal vote for communists.
BJP should Therefore, co ncentrate on Tribals and The OBCs though, they constitute Only a Small Fraction of about 10-12% of Bengal’s Electorate.
BJP should atleast garner around 15% vote share by 2011 Assembly Elections.
May 11th, 2009 at 12:34 PM
Dear all
I have gone through all the comments posted over here. What I conclude from that all the commentors here are genuinely pro-NDA.
So I think we should suggest a strategy which will ultimately benefit BJP-NDA in Bengal and nation.
It is very clear BJP in this election is not at all in position to win win more than a 2-3 seats by even very very liberal estimate and it is also sur it is also definite it will surely win one seat of Darjeeling, irrespective of whatever policy theyu adopt in remaining bengal mainland. So even if they do wrong step the maximum possible loss is zero.
Keeping this in mind, BJP should play which will help it in future.
It should put strong candidates in each seat fight vigorously and increase their vote % as much as possible, in the process whoever is damaged CPM-left or Trinamool-INC don’t care; for BJP both are equal enemies.
Then, as an approach BJP should focus urban educated progreesoriented voters and harp on development issues emphatically, Tata -Nano project should be loudly taken to expose Trinamolol Mamta anti-development attitude in company with Congress.
and Left’s inefficiency to rein in Mamta and work for industrial growth.
BJP should not be seen in company with anti-development mamta party at all.l It should adopt a tough tactical posture towards them.
See politics is not only Arithmetics it is sheer chemistry more. U cannot have Narendra Modi & Manta at the same time, this confuses ur voters and u end up loosing both sides.
Further BJP should make all out efforts to defeat Trinamool-INC candidates every where even Mamta herself even at thecost of Lefts winning, to teach them a befitting reply of parting with NDA and joining UPA.
See, if Mamta-Congress alliance succeeds then it will close all the future possibilities of TMC joining & supporting NDA. If her alliance fails miserably with Congress then she will rethink her alliance with Congress .
And also if she looses her traditional urban votebank and looses her traditional urban seats & donot get good enough rural seats also because of anti TATA-NANO stand she will also rethink her stand on such progressive developmental projects.
Then only a changed Mamta dissociated with Congress after failure and pro-development face will be much suitable for BJP to enter NDA, otherwise she will remain in UPA and even if Congress joins with Left then she may join NDA but will always be perrenial problems because of her anti development stand (which would be more tough if she wins good no. of LS seats this time).
So at all cost BJP should try to get TMC candidates defeated in as many as possible no. of seats.
and increase its vote share as much as possible at least 10% + across West Bengal. (this is not wishful, it is possible as BJP secured around 12% votes in1991 in Ram Lehar time). This is also possible this time also as urban educated youth and mazdpoors are highly disillusioned by both Left & TMC-mamta. This is right time to capture urban frustrated votebank of Trinamool Congress for BJP.
If BJP recieves 10-12% popular votes in W Begal and bag a couple of seats, then it will automatically become an attractive ally in West Bengal.
Meanwhile also Mamta-Congress alliance faiols miserably, then it will be a fantastic situation for BJP in West Bengal, to attract TMC in coming assembly elections at genuine pro development agenda.
May 10th, 2009 at 12:22 PM
All i could know about the electoral scene in west bengal is that the left is in some deep trouble . I am not a resident of Bengal and i get to know the info. only from news channels. An extremely popular election analyst has said that usually people (through these 3 decades of CPI(M) rule) have not spoken up against the left , secondly the disconent against the left will not significantly translate into vote and thirdly those votes aginst the left will not get translated into seats . But he says that this time the first two things ( speaking up against left ,voting against the left in large numbers ) have already happened in the two phases of polling in Bengal and the third thing ( translation into seats) remains to be seen .
A more fundamental que. is that whenever there is a high turn out the incumbent govt. is sure to be in trouble . There is a high chance of the ruling front faring badly . In phase 4 , rural Bengal’s turn out was some 75%!!!Is this really a vote for change in CPM’s bastions in South Bengal?
May 10th, 2009 at 6:40 AM
Seems Bengal Voters Psychology is getting Complex.
Need to Wait for 6 more days.
May 9th, 2009 at 11:10 PM
Don’t think the entire urban population and the youth hates Mamata. Development,Violence and corruption are major issues for the city population. It should be the LF whom people needs to blame for lack of development as they were in power for 32 years and have such a mass base all over the state. Kind of political violence people witness in Bengal strongly attributed to the muscle power of CPM.Government is highly corrupted in the lower level. In Kolkata ,Mamata may loose some votes but she will be gaining a lot of votes among the rural and middle class voters.
May 9th, 2009 at 10:58 PM
This has to be prevented.
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1090509/images/09nandibig.jpg
CPM is pretty much winning the election due to the terror not with the real support. Everyone who believe in Democracy needs to oppose it. The same CPM will make big noise against other parties and act as if they are so pure and strong in left bastions. I hate most of the main stream media because of their leftist bias.
May 9th, 2009 at 10:46 PM
Mr. Raj- You too seem to be ignoring the following
1. Muslims all across Bengal are a large constituent who have so far been faithful to the Left Front…and so have the scheduled tribes been…the Minority Commission report indicating that Muslims in Benagl are a worser lot than most of the other states in the country has brought them to question the Left Front’s sincerity in delivering goods for them…this is one thing that has given Alimuddin St. sleepless nights…
2. what has added to the woes of the Left is the reports of scheduled tribes who were a solid support base for the Lefts, particularly in the 24 Pargans, splitting their votes and backing the TC INC alliance in those areas.
3. Internal bickerings in the left front has cost them dear in the last few zilla and GP elections as well as MLA byelections, particularly with TC INC coming together. The bickerings continue- and not just amongs constituents…but even within CPM- this is against a broadly unified TC INC front…although not everything has been smooth for the later either…there are INC people not happy with TC candidates and vice versa…but the thrust from the top to broadly unify the grassroots has been fruitful to a large extent.
4. Also last but not the least, in WB, rigging plays an important factor. All the major Bengali newspapers (barring Ganashakti which is the Left mouthpiece) have reported that people and the opposition have prevented mass scale rigging in most of the places (though there have been some areas where CPM is very strong yet, and riggings have continued).Even CPM has complained of mass rigging by TC and INC this time, and have demanded repolling in some 50 odd booths…which is a first coming from the Left in WB.
There were 7 seats in WB where CPM won by about 50000 or less of a margin in 2004- and in those seats, the INC/TC votes together are likely to surpass that- even leaving aside the general swing. Add to it the alieneation of its supports by the BJP by going with the Gorkhaland demand (although it has not specifically acceded to it).
The Left’s mastestroke was the land redistribution-and 30 years later the forceful taking away of it, or so it seemed, is its undoing.