by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 27, 2009Why has the BJP been losing its support steadily among the youth and urban educated middle class?
This post is by Ratnakar Sadasyula, our guest contributor. Ratnakar is an IT professional. Please welcome him on POR.
The BJP’s spectacular rise in the 90’s was due to the enthusiastic backing of the younger sections of the population, during that time. The BJP had a large support from the younger educated professionals, the college going students, and people in the 20-40 age category. While the older generation still voted for the Congress, a major part of the BJP’s support base came from the youth. For a Generation, fed up with the shenigans of the Congress, the failure of “champagne socialism” and “sham secularism”, the BJP seemed the best alternative. The BJP’s right wing Hindutva ideology had large scale support among the urban educated middle classes, while its espousal of a capitalist economy enthused the youth. The reason why youth, including myself, supported the BJP in large numbers was its no nonsense stance on internal security and the country’s safety. Many ex Defence officers joined the BJP, impressed by the party’s discipline, its decorum. While there essentially was not much difference between Congress and BJP on economic policy in the 90’s, the difference was pronounced on other issues, like relations with US, more friendly policy with Israel, Uniform Civil Code, repeal of Article 370, which did really attract the youth.
When the NDA Government conducted the nuclear tests in 1998, the people hailed it. In an Indian foreign policy characterized often by cowardice and vote bank politics, the BJP’s act was seen as a means of standing up to the world. And Kargil, 1999, swung the pendulum towards BJP fully. It was not just the victory in the war, it was the way Jaswant Singh, traveled around the world, putting India’s stand clear, and virtually isolating Pakistan in the international forum. Even Pakistan’s regular friend China, could do nothing in this regard, as it lay totally exposed before the world. It was on such a goodwill that the NDA stormed into victory, and with great hopes. However the Kandahar fiasco, disappointed many BJP supporters down right. The sight of Jaswant Singh escorting the terrorist leaders, proved to be a real bitter pill to swallow. Neither did the long stand off after the Parliament attack, where forces were deployed on border, but just idled doing nothing. And the final straw was the way the NDA govt, responded to the brutal killing of the BSF jawans by BDR soldiers, at the Indo-Bangladesh border. The sight of the dead BSF jawans, being carried like animals on a pole, provoked outrage, and left many die hard BJP supporters disheartened. The youth who voted for the party in large numbers especially felt left down, when even a small loser nation like Bangladesh, showed the middle finger to us. Nor did the BJP do anything for the Kashmiri Pundits, who were still living in the same miserable conditions.
All these added up to many people losing faith in the BJP. One thing needs to be kept in mind, while Hindutva did play a role in the BJP’s growth, it was an issue have a limited shelf time. A vast majority of the youth, who supported the BJP during the 90’s, did so because of its stand on economic issues, internal security and foreign policy. When they saw the BJP not really delivering on those promises, it really disheartened them. No they did not shift to the Congress, but could not bring themselves to vote for the BJP. Nor were the state BJP governments offering any exemplary governance either, when it came to corruption, sycophancy, nepotism, the BJP began to resemble the Congress B team.
The UPA rule presented many opportunities for the BJP to capture the youth vote bank. The agitation by AIIMS students in Delhi against Arjun Singh’s reservation gimmicks, the bungling in the dismissal of P.Venugopal Rao, the AIIMS head, the UPA’s ineffective management of internal security and most importantly 26/11. One reason why the BJP managed to win over the youth was the way it handled the anti Mandal agitation, many of its leaders then tacitly supported the agitation, and this led to the youngsters becoming die hard supporters of the party. At the same time, the BJP managed to woo the tribal, OBC vote bank by actively promoting leaders like Sushil Modi, Uma Bharti, Kalyan Singh in the OBC segment and Babulal Marandi, Jual Oram in tribal areas. In this way the BJP managed to attract both the upper caste, as well as the OBC, tribal segments without resorting to gimmicks like reservation. In sharp contrast the BJP leadership handling of the 26/11 aftermath, was totally ham handed. Nothing irked people more than the flying visits made by the BJP leaders to pay condolences, even while the security forces were fighting the terrorists. On one hand, the security forces and people were locked in a life and death situation, and then watching these visits on TV was totally jarring. Again after 26/11, when there was a huge rally against the attacks in Mumbai, it would have made sense for the BJP leadership to support it. But M.A.Naqvi’s insensitive comments about “lipstick powder wearing” women and some of the local leaders dismissing it as a “Page 3” rally, did not go down too well. Sure there were people of that kind, but the rally was a spontaneous outbreak of anger against the Govt’s mishandling of the situation, and what could have been a great opportunity for the BJP to channel the people’s discontent, and project itself as an alternative was totally lost.
And what really made the youth dissociate itself from the BJP has been the pub attacks in Mangalore and the antics of the Shri Ram Sene. I have seen many friends of mine, who were openly critical of their tactics, and mind you most of them are not the pub going, Westernized kind. Again the BJP’s response on this issue has been wishy washy, sort of “Yes its bad, but you see they asked for it”. Now one may debate about the merits and demerits of Valentines Day or pubs till heaven come, but one thing the BJP needs to keep in mind. Youngsters don’t really like being told what to do, they hate being disciplined. And lets face it, that’s a stage all of us have been through as youngsters, and many have matured out of it. You indulge in moral policing, in effect you are alienating the youth. No ifs and buts there, youngsters just don’t like it. The BJP needs to stop playing the role of a Super Dad, and be a friend towards the youth. Lets face it the bitter truth is that the BJP has no youth leader, who has Rahul Gandhi’s appeal, so the best thing to do would be to reach out to the youth. The youth have issues like employment, higher education on their mind. Why do so many youngsters queue up in front of the US embassy every day seeking to study abroad? Or work abroad? Why do talented young people in India have to study in some B Grade university in Australia, and face racist attacks? Trust me the moment the BJP comes up with a plan to revitalize higher education, its going to receive enthusiastic support from the youth. If the youth is veering towards Rahul Gandhi, its not because of his cute dimples, its because they feel that he could understand their concerns better. This is what the BJP needs to do immediately.
August 18th, 2009 at 2:04 PM
Guys, I need some info. I am very active on the friends of BJP website, but there is no one from BJP who ever visits it or writes in it.
Today I found the following on twitter which I found very offensive:
“globalisation and economic progress will destroy the BJP, it will be reduced to ranting bigots on the internet”
And guess who wrote it: Mdm Sagarika Ghose of CNN-IBN fame. Does any of you have any reach/contacts within the party to raise this issue of offensive reporting by media?
August 6th, 2009 at 7:54 AM
Thanks for The Excerpt Saurabh Bhai!!!
The so called Hindu-Muslim Unity is A Myth.
However, Dr. B.R.Ambedkar is NOT Right in saying “A Hindu can go into christianity without Commotion”
May, be then, it was different. But, as of now, Evangelism is Cultural Jehad.
August 4th, 2009 at 10:16 PM
When Chakresh mentions that BJP should not give up Hindutva I fully endorse this view.
In fact I am endorsing a hardcore, rigid form of Hindutva to gear up the Hindu community.
The reasoning is based on my analysis of Hindu-Muslim relationships ever since Islam invaded India. This is based on
- Historical facts.
- Thorough research.
Dr. Bhimrao Ambedkar in his book Pakistan, or, the Partition of India published in 1940 mentions in one of his chapters of book called:
A. So called perceived Hindu Muslim Unity.
Dr. Ambedkar writes that
The real explanation of this failure of Hindu-Muslim unity lies in the failure to realize that what stands between the Hindus and Muslims is not a mere matter of difference, and that this antagonism is not to be attributed to material causes. It is formed by causes which take their origin in historical, religious, cultural and social antipathy, of which political antipathy is only a reflection. These form one deep river of discontent which, being regularly fed by these sources, keeps on mounting to a head and overflowing its ordinary channels. Any current of water flowing from another source, however pure, when it joins it, instead of altering the colour or diluting its strength becomes lost in the main stream. The silt of this antagonism which this current has deposited, has become permanent and deep. So long as this silt keeps on accumulating and so long as this antagonism lasts, it is unnatural to expect this antipathy between Hindus and Muslims to give place to unity.
Like the Christians and Muslims in the Turkish Empire, the Hindus and Muslims of India have met as enemies on many fields, and the result of the struggle has often brought them into the relation of conquerors and conquered. Whichever party has triumphed, a great gulf has remained fixed between the two and their enforced political union either under the Moghuls or the British instead of passing over, as in so many other cases, into organic unity, has only accentuated their mutual antipathy. Neither religion nor social code can bridge this gulf. The two faiths are mutually exclusive and whatever harmonies may be forged in the interest of good social behaviour, at their core and centre they are irreconcilable. There seems to be an inherent antagonism between the two which centuries have not been able to dissolve. Notwithstanding the efforts made to bring the creeds together by reformers like Akbar and Kabir, the ethical realities behind each have still remained, to use a mathematical phrase, which nothing can .alter or make integers capable of having a common denominator. A Hindu can go from Hinduism to Christianity without causing any commotion or shock. But he cannot pass from Hinduism to Islam without causing a communal riot, certainly not without causing qualms. That shows the depth of the antagonism which divides the Hindus from the Musalmans.
If Islam and Hinduism keep Muslims and Hindus apart in the matter of their faith, they also prevent their social assimilation. That Hinduism prohibits intermarriage between Hindus and Muslims is quite well known. This narrow-mindedness is not the vice of Hinduism only. Islam is equally narrow in its social code. It also prohibits intermarriage between Muslims and Hindus. With these social laws there can be no social assimilation and consequently no socialization of ways, modes and outlooks, no blunting of the edges and no modulation of age-old angularities.
There are other defects in Hinduism and in Islam which are responsible for keeping the sore between Hindus and Muslims open and running. Hinduism is said to divide people and in contrast Islam is said to bind people together. This is only a half truth. For Islam divides as inexorably as it binds. Islam is a close corporation and the distinction that it makes between Muslims and non-Muslims is a very real, very positive and very alienating distinction. The brotherhood of Islam is not the universal brotherhood of man. It is brotherhood of Muslims for Muslims only. There is a fraternity, but its benefit is confined to those within that corporation. For those who are outside the corporation, there is nothing but contempt and enmity. The second defect of Islam is that it is a system of social self-government and is incompatible with local self-government, because the allegiance of a Muslim does not rest on his domicile in the country which is his but on the faith to which he belongs. To the Muslim ibi bene ibi patria is unthinkable. Wherever there is the rule of Islam, there is his own country. In other words, Islam can never allow a true Muslim to adopt India as his motherland and regard a Hindu as his kith and kin. That is probably the reason why Maulana Mahomed Ali, a great Indian but a true Muslim, preferred to be buried in Jerusalem rather than in India.
August 4th, 2009 at 9:59 PM
Hi This is Saurav coming back after a long time !.
Great work by Chakresh to carry on the momentum even after the elections!.
One thing which the Author forgets between 1990 and 2009 is that 20 years(2 decades) have gone by between these 2 periods.
In these 2 decades there has been a demographic shift for the Muslims with regards to the Hindus.
While the “official” (again cannot be considered accurate) percentage of Muslims in India was – 13.2% in 1991, It raised to about 16% in the 2001 official census.
Even the most conservative demographers dispute this figure. They say that the Muslim population in India grows at an average rate of 6-8% decade over decade but there was only a 3% increase.
Even taking the 3% increase only, In 2009, the Muslim population of India is somewhere between 19 – 20% (As the official 2011 census is yet to be done).
Anyway my point is that this large chunk of the Vote Base which is most definitely anti BJP makes a huge difference in the overall results of elections.
a. The Muslim population due to their high growth rate is much younger than the Hindu population. If the average age of Hindus is 35 y the average age for a Muslim in India is 19 Y.
b. Due to this the not only is there is a higher rate of growth but there is a growth itself in the rate of growth of the Muslim population.
This factor should be considered in analysis.
July 31st, 2009 at 12:56 PM
Well said Mohan Ji, BJP has become like congress.The Coterie system has developed and A Discipline Based Cadred Party is today miffed with The Worst kind of InFighting even in states, where they dont have A Single Legislator
July 29th, 2009 at 2:05 PM
A correction in my previous post
[[[ They used to sit on the floor side by side (even vajpayeeji and advaniji), they talked eloquently and pursuasively (no breastbeating and shrill rhetoric) and they looked the part.]]]
July 29th, 2009 at 2:04 PM
Whats the difference between the BJP of the 90′s and BJP ion this decade? For starters check out the Mahaadhiveshan of 1995 videos posted on youtube. See how leaders then were conducting and speaking. They used to sit on the floor side by side (even vajpayeeji and atalji), they talked eloquently and pursuasively (no breastbeating and shrill rhetoric) and they looked the part.
Now party meetings happen in closed AC rooms while important people watch cricket matches in England. The buzz of the 90′s is missing, there is no collective responsibility and its a shame that BJP is appointing people to positions rather than electing them (like how Sushil Modi was elected as Deputy CM of Bihar).
The sooner they correct the better it will be and I pray they do so as I cannot bear the pain of seeing another Indian center-right party wither and blow away.
July 15th, 2009 at 8:34 PM
The other reason was M Vote bank. The M junta felt voting regional parties was doing nothing so why not vote for Congress? they also protect them, do nothing to terrorists have softer stance towards extremism and been a M sympathizer since long! thats the sole reason. Also these buggers Raj Thackreay etc..divided the Hindu votes…Hindusim suffers from Caste politics since it originated, until all Hindus stand united I dont c BJP ever coming 2 power again!!!
Back to the article again all your POINTS mentinoed are 100% correct
July 6th, 2009 at 4:13 PM
Excellent Article and Well Articulated.
The BJP over The Years has Become a B Team of Congress without Question and Joined Se veral Psuedo Secularists. The Future seems Grim too!!!
The Coterie System has been Cultivated and Promoted.
People Who stood for Nationalism have been Sidelined.
True Hindutva Policy of BJP might NOT Bring Enmasse Support, But, Deserting Hindutva has Angered Sangh Outfits like VHP and Dr. Praveen Bhai Tagodia has Openly Started to Criticize BJP and it’s Policies.
ShivRaj Singh Chauhan and Sushil Kumar Modi have sided with Muqtar Abbas Naqvi and Shanawaz Hussain when They sought Clarification on The “Hindutva Agenda”
The Urban Middle Class(Often Accused of Being ArmChaired Critics)are forced to Abstain from Excercising The Franchise in lieu of BJP’s Recent Policies or A Lack of The same.Development Would Bring Votes, but, in Addition to Development, Discipline of The Party and A Strong Consistent Ideology have to be Maintained.
The BJP Governments have NOT Legislated Any Bill Against Miracle Healing and Hate Literature being Distributed By Evangelical Missionaries. This has Again Disheartened Many of The BJP’s Supporters.
June 27th, 2009 at 8:53 AM
@poweredbyatp
then what will be the difference between BJP and Congress and why ppl will vote for BJP?
It is still true that core and devoted BJP voters are Hindutva supporter and loss of vote is due to BJP’s sidelining the Hindutva issues (Mandir, uniform civil code etc) not due to embarking Hindutva.
Varun Gandhi won election by more votes than Advani did.
In metros I can accept that mood is against Hindutva, but in town and 2nd tier cities, Hindutva is as always appealing. And it is inherent in evolution of industrial society to follow more passionate religious identity, though w/o following the religion truly.
June 27th, 2009 at 8:01 AM
very simple reason….. In early 90′ … BJP has gud young leader(pramod mahajan,jetali,susma swaraj)… and now congress(rahul and company).. ..
June 27th, 2009 at 7:50 AM
I vehemently disagree with Chakresh. BJP is not a religious group. It is a political party. I think they should dissolve the party and form party that is not stained with the Hindutva. They should form a party that is conservative (lower taxes, free trade, eliminating red tape, and strong national security policy).
Hindutva is dragging the part down.
June 27th, 2009 at 2:00 AM
If I would have written on this issue, same would have come out, just may be not so nicely.
BJP needs to follow right wing Hindutva in political sphere and Liberal framework in social affairs, if it want to remain in tune with new generation. We want India to be spectacular as a country but in personal affairs we do not want anybody dictating us. For further reference people might read late 19th century Emile Durkhiem. You would understand what I want.