Manmohan singh, our dummy prime minister is in the dilemma of lifetime. He has asserted many times that he will resign if nuclear deal is paralyzed by anyone. Now we have very interesting situation. Points to be considered:
- NDA, BSP have distanced themselves from deal and will vote against government.
- Left front is in no mood to go along with deal. They have said that if deal take place, they will withdraw support by all means.
- Congress (read Manmohan uncle) is very strongly with deal. Specially Manmohan Singh has made it a prestige issue. He will certainly resign if deal is snapped.
- Congress (other than PM) is in no mood for election, but they can not utter a word against Sonia Gandhi, who has given her full support to PM on this issue.
- UPA allies can go to any limit to prevent the election now.
- Government can be saved with the help of Mulayam Singh, But TDP has said that if Mulayam supports government, then UNPA will no more be a political entity.
- Mulayam needs congress in next election (see UP political analysis)
- G8 meeting is at 8 July. So before that all this political drama is going to find a final word.
So this left us with following three possible scenario:
- Government fall and election takes place in August.
- Mulayam helps government and save it. But loose tie with Left. UNPA dissolves and TDP, AIDMK, INLD align with NDA.
- Left and Sonia make a backdoor deal and save government by ousting Mr. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Install a new PM, possibly Pranab Mukharjee.
Let us wait and watch. Though predicting a political outcome is as difficult as predicting the box office performance of a upcoming Ram Gopal Verma movie, we shall enjoy the situation. Anyway NDA is in advantage in any of the above situations.
Take a look at these related posts:
- Not a lame duck government but an integrity challenged cuckoo indeed
- India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Pre-poll prediction by Arun Nehru and case of possible post poll alliances
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June 28, 2008 at 11:52 AM
according to present scenario and looking toward the inflation , it is possible that Manmohan ji will not stay>>>>>>>>>>.
July 5, 2008 at 10:50 AM
so he stays with the help of Mulayam singh yadav “a product of anti-congress wave” – phew, yes it is politics.
July 5, 2008 at 7:32 PM
this will be a landmark split in indian politics ..
the no.supports the deal , do the public?
July 13, 2008 at 9:40 PM
just few more days for the real verdict of the people…
D DAY- 22 JULY
http://halfbakedpizza.blogspot.com
March 19, 2009 at 11:01 PM
UPA WILL BE BACK. BJP will taste ofits worst ever defeat.
April 6, 2009 at 8:00 AM
Why do you call him a dummy prime minister ? He has got more brains in his little toe than you have in your stupid brain. The dummy guys are people like Advani and Modi who talk tough and have a belligerent attitude. These people use the communal card to garner votes. They are empty vessels making a big noise and their only achievements are the acts of destruction and violence and hate speeches they indulge in.
alakeshwar
April 6, 2009 at 9:17 AM
@alakeshwar
I call him dummy prime minister, because he has no clout of his own. I respect him as a person and economist. But we are not talking about post of “Planning com” or RBI, where he might be best suited. PM post has one criteria only, the person should be leader of public, it does not matter what is his qualifications.
It is democracy and he can not win a seat on his own, so….